NEG NAO Posted Monday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:25 PM 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Hi... I'm reluctant to buy into a big storm right now... IF NO PHASE between the northern and southern streams, then no big storm. Many members of the 12z/6 GEFS are running the northern stream short wave out ahead of the southern stream. That to me is out to sea and snow ice favored NC-Delmarva- s NJ. The mean trough on the GEFS would allow snow up here but concerned this 5H flow is going to look different come Friday (less high amplitude N/S- troughing). For now the EPS is meager, and WPC D6 qpf and winter wx are also meager. That can change but am thinking conservatively and not planning big up here. agree 100 % - I think too many folks are jumping the gun on this one based on 2 runs of a GFS OP and the 12Z Euro a complete miss of the phase and out to sea - need more support for the GFS solution to support a storm scenario...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Just now, NEG NAO said: agree 100 % - I think too many folks are jumping the gun on this one based on 2 runs of a GFS OP and the 12Z Euro a complete miss of the phase and out to sea - need more support for the GFS solution to support a storm scenario...... Other models are jumping on board except for the Euro. The pattern supports a big storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:26 PM 7 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: someone keep an eye on 18z Euro....let's see what we got! Looks meh so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Monday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:27 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Other models are jumping on board except for the Euro. The pattern supports a big storm which models that are 0Z or 12Z ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:27 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Looks meh so far Stubborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Monday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:28 PM 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks meh so far its still hanging the energy back in the southwest right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:29 PM 1 hour ago, hooralph said: Yeah I don't think they were brushing off the snowboard to get measurements every 6 hours in 1888. I don't think a brush would be enough to remove that behemoth even if doing it every 6 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:31 PM 1 hour ago, Santa Claus said: we would never do that does Santa Claus ever lie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:32 PM 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Bread and milk Alcohol and Pot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:33 PM 1 hour ago, MANDA said: Point taken. I was just going by the official record. Yes, those pictures don't jive with the official record. On the other hand the drifting was historic. One side of the street was swept essentially clean and the other side was buried. Hard to tell in that picture what was from drifts with then removed snow piled on. I have a nice book of 1888 somewhere by Judd Caplovich but have not picked it up in decades. January 1996 was also undermeasured. I was in the same location for January 1996 and PD2 and PD2 was 26 inches at JFK, January 1996 was in no way shape or form only 22 inches. And February 1978 was in no way shape or form only 14 inches but that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:35 PM 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: This is a myth. 21" was the maximum snowdepth in NYC during a 3 day storm in 1888; the record shows an entire day of snowfall that added 0. Also look at snowdepths from elsewhere around the region (not BOS, which got skunked). Plenty of cool old photos remain if you search for them. You don't have to take my word for it. Ask RC, he was there at the postage stamp The Central Park measurer wasn't any good back then either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:37 PM 1 hour ago, hooralph said: I suspect 1888 and 1947 are the true GOATs and would stand alone probably in the 30s using today's measurement practices. Did January 1996 use today's measurement practices though? It was undermeasured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Monday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:37 PM 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Alcohol and Pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Look at the pictures from 1888 and the measurements surrounding Manhattan. Remember there was no snow on the ground when the storm started. Brooklyn was 36 inches, New Haven 45 inches and the entire HV of SE NY 40-60 inches. That somehow Manhattan measured 21 inches from that storm is a total joke. It's a shame they haven't had that corrected over the years. Somehow I see the same mistakes being made if that storm recurred in current times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Monday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:41 PM 21 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: someone keep an eye on 18z Euro....let's see what we got! It shows that we aren't getting much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Monday at 11:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:42 PM 22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its still hanging the energy back in the southwest right ? That old EURO bias isn’t a thing anymore. It hasn’t existed in years and it’s handling the northern stream completely different. That’s why it’s flat and OTS run after run @Wxoutlooksblog 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Monday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:44 PM 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Other models are jumping on board except for the Euro. The pattern supports a big storm No other model is really jumping on board anything close to the GFS. Doesn't necessarily mean the GFS is wrong, just saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:48 PM Eps is a bit better. Has some hits 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Monday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:49 PM 3 minutes ago, Edge Weather said: No other model is really jumping on board anything close to the GFS. Doesn't necessarily mean the GFS is wrong, just saying. The Canadian was pretty close at 12z. But it is hard to bet against the euro even if it “isn’t what it used to be.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:51 PM 6 minutes ago, Edge Weather said: No other model is really jumping on board anything close to the GFS. Doesn't necessarily mean the GFS is wrong, just saying. CMC is close thats a 985 low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:55 PM 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Eps is a bit better. Has some hits Alot better than op Red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:59 PM 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Eps is a bit better. Has some hits Much better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:59 PM EPS is better. hangs less crap back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Tuesday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:07 AM 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Bread and milk 35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Alcohol and Pot Crystal Mommy Energy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM I'm gonna put my shooting muffs over the top of my noise canceling earbuds tonight, because the weenies are going to be screaming "hallelujah" at the top of their lungs come 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Tuesday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:09 AM Just now, Nibor said: Crystal Mommy Energy Ok fine. I’ll manifest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Tuesday at 12:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:11 AM And on the 8th day.. he said...."Let there be a HECS of biblical proportions for all of the weenies across the lands.. " 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted Tuesday at 12:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:14 AM 3 minutes ago, dseagull said: And on the 8th day.. he said...."Let there be a HECS of biblical proportions for all of the weenies across the lands.. " Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 12:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:18 AM anybody notice a trend? 8 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Tuesday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:21 AM anybody notice a trend?This is a damn good post.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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