Rjay Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM Need to change things up around here for some good luck. Here's an early thread to discuss this threat. Is it coming? I'm sure you'll all be surprised that Metsfan says yes and Snowman says no. Who will be right? 7 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 06:41 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:41 PM 38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO if the 0Z has 2 of the top 3 GFS, Euro and Canadian and at least one of their ensembles mean show a similar 18Z GFS scenario then start a storm thread but not until those conditions are met......, 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Sunday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:47 PM I need it to come Sunday. Not Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Super Bomb 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Super Bummed 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM Just stay with gfs and euro for now, special attention to ensembles until, say tuesday. Phase or not to phase. That is the question for the next 2 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Sunday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:54 PM I'm getting my crystal mommy energy going. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 06:56 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:56 PM 1 minute ago, Nibor said: I'm getting my crystal mommy energy going. It's like you knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:57 PM Just now, Rjay said: It's like you knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:58 PM I'm guessing 18z GFS was more fluky given other models/ensembles but just goes to show what would happen if that energy south gets ejected in time. Literally the difference between a non/small event and historic blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Sunday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:58 PM 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I refuse to get excited this far out Same here. Come back to me on Wednesday with this big storm look for the metro area and then I will get excited. 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I could buy the 18Z GFS track from like 132 hours on in a pattern like this more so in March than now. I feel it would be hard as heck for that system to be able to climb up the coast vs go straight out to sea Do we have to wait until the storm for tomorrow gets off shore to see how the block sets up before we can get any confidence on any future storms? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM 20 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Same here. Come back to me on Wednesday with this big storm look for the metro area and then I will get excited. Do we have to wait until the storm for tomorrow gets off shore to see how the block sets up before we can get any confidence on any future storms? Such a fragile setup. Agreed that we need a few days to really understand how it all interacts. We need the big phase to have a shot at a significant storm, then next question is how/where. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Such a fragile setup. Agreed that we need a few days to really understand how it all interacts. We need the big phase to have a shot at a significant storm, then next question is how/where. Agree but I want to be all in so badly lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Agree but I want to be all in so badly lol. Oh I totally get it. Something has to happen for these weeks of it being cold enough for snow lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisStock Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM hey guys im in toms river area so i think 5 or 6 is good hope you guys get some 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM 2 hours ago, ChrisStock said: hey guys im in toms river area so i think 5 or 6 is good hope you guys get some Thank you CS. At my age thats good to hear. As always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisStock Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM well just wanted to say hey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM 7 minutes ago, ChrisStock said: hey guys im in toms river area so i think 5 or 6 is good hope you guys get some Different thread but thank you. Clouds and flurries will likely be it though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisStock Posted Sunday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:39 PM hey thank you rclab 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisStock Posted Sunday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:46 PM sorry rjay i know how it works been a lurker for years but love it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Sunday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:55 PM Now it’s a toss for a different result run to run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted Sunday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:55 PM We need this to happen for all of us who have been through hell these past few years. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Need to change things up around here for some good luck. Here's an early thread to discuss this threat. Is it coming? I'm sure you'll all be surprised that Metsfan says yes and Snowman says no. Who will be right? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Sunday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:24 PM I think a lighter more suppressed storm is favored at this time due to the fast west to east suppressed seasonal pattern but that could change. The time-frame definitely bares watching. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 08:53 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:53 PM 18z Euro AI is team metsfan 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: 18z Euro AI is team metsfan 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM 33 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think a lighter more suppressed storm is favored at this time due to the fast west to east suppressed seasonal pattern but that could change. The time-frame definitely bares watching. WX/PT Agreed I just don't buy it given the fast flow. 0z GFS will probably go back to reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisStock Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM that looks great maybe we all can score from dc to boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM 29 minutes ago, Rjay said: 18z Euro AI is team metsfan well they did get Soto.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM This timeframe looks great Rising NAO Rising AO Positive PNA Plenty of cold air around Favorable MJO 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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