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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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10PM 4.0 measured in Havre de Grace, and I didn’t have to slant-stick. I was having a moral struggle for the past hour on how I could live with lying about the measurement. Turns out I didn’t have to.

Honestly, it was probably a bit more since the wind is really going now. My snow board was accumulating but my other 2 measuring spots were obliterated.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea if the initial push was better, then DCA would've had a legit shot at 10", IMO.

It seemed like accumulation shut off for a good part of Nova post 6-7am which really hurt us. If anything I remember being up from 2:30am onwards and at first the rates were .8 inch per hour and we were ahead of schedule but then the heaviest stuff never came north. 

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One of the larger discrepancies I noticed was the Kuchera numbers from some of the CAMs were much higher than that of the GFS, HRRR, and FV3 CAM which lead to inflated totals in the forecast and drove up probabilities in the NBM and probabilistic tools. When I assessed the HRRR Kuchera ratios, they started coming into line about 6 hrs prior to the event with lower ratios fine tuned compared to earlier runs with those very high totals. The parent RAP did not adjust, thus the numbers were inflated. One of the things I got caught up in is I didn't take those considerations into account with my initial forecast, and I didn't adjust enough for the stronger subsidence regime that would be between the 85H and 7H FGEN alignment. That's partly why my forecast busted in some areas, so I apologize for being a bit inflated, especially in the northern tier of the sub-forum. 

I strive for excellence since I know many look into my forecasts for expectation and potential decision making. I'll try to be a little more thorough next time and perhaps a little less aggressive away from the means for a setup of this caliber. Sometimes you have to pick and chose when to be more aggressive than guidance and this probably wasn't one of those times. 

I'm glad many here got 5+" and were able to enjoy a good ole fashioned Mid Atlantic snowstorm. Hopefully many in here can enjoy another this weekend. Fingers crossed! 

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Just got in from an epic jebwalk in that band and I just kept saying “this is what its all about” while just looking up into the sky as the dendrites were smacking me on my face.

Went out again with the pup and couldn’t help but revel in it. It was simply glorious.

I’m going to go with 8.5” total for the storm, with this evening’s snow being the best part of it!

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@MillvilleWx We’re having the “Dept of Highways” issue with LWX again- they took away my 9.5” from noon and replaced it with an inaccurately low 9.0” from State Highway (which is right next to me) at 5pm. I just sent in my final 11.6” total so we’ll see if they post it in the next update.
 

I’m seeing a bunch of those measurements in the reports again, wonder how accurate they really are…

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23 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@MillvilleWx We’re having the “Dept of Highways” issue with LWX again- they took away my 9.5” from noon and replaced it with an inaccurately low 9.0” from State Highway (which is right next to me) at 5pm. I just sent in my final 11.6” total so we’ll see if they post it in the next update.
 

I’m seeing a bunch of those measurements in the reports again, wonder how accurate they really are…

That's annoying. Idk why they would do that. Are you a trained spotter by chance? Typically they would never replace a trained spotter with a Spotter ID. I sent them an email early this morning and I got setup with a Spotter ID since that was not a requirement out in Midland, TX area. It is for LWX, so I reached out and since I'm a NWS Employee, they basically pushed it through without me needing a class (Because I can literally teach the class, and have! lol). So, I obtained a Spotter ID and set a Geolocation. If you don't have the spotter ID, that could be why they don't include it. Dept of Highways is probably deemed more trustworthy (Debatable in my experience), so that would take precedent. Idk why they don't just accept both. Not my call, but I know I would. 

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55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

2nd biggest snowfall since moving back to Maryland in August 2016. I believe the bigger totals just to my south in Columbia and Pikesville. Driving into work today at 4am the snow intensity was much greater once I got off 795 and on 29.

 

 

You and @CAPE always have beautiful house pics in the snow. I love the lights! 

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19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That's annoying. Idk why they would do that. Are you a trained spotter by chance? Typically they would never replace a trained spotter with a Spotter ID. I sent them an email early this morning and I got setup with a Spotter ID since that was not a requirement out in Midland, TX area. It is for LWX, so I reached out and since I'm a NWS Employee, they basically pushed it through without me needing a class (Because I can literally teach the class, and have! lol). So, I obtained a Spotter ID and set a Geolocation. If you don't have the spotter ID, that could be why they don't include it. Dept of Highways is probably deemed more trustworthy (Debatable in my experience), so that would take precedent. Idk why they don't just accept both. Not my call, but I know I would. 

Yes I’m a trained spotter with an ID, been sending in reports for a decade now. The issue seems to be that I am in the same location as State Highway (1 S Prince Frederick in their metadata) so whomever sends in the latest report overwrites the other. Or at least that’s what I was told. This issue never occurred until last year, when they started using “Dept of Highways” measurements.

In the case of State Highway next to my house, the measurements are always too low and appear to be snow depth (that’s my guess anyway).

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25 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yes I’m a trained spotter with an ID, been sending in reports for a decade now. The issue seems to be that I am in the same location as State Highway (1 S Prince Frederick in their metadata) so whomever sends in the latest report overwrites the other. Or at least that’s what I was told. This issue never occurred until last year, when they started using “Dept of Highways” measurements.

In the case of State Highway next to my house, the measurements are always too low and appear to be snow depth (that’s my guess anyway).

Ahhh. Gotcha. They might be able to change the Geolocation to somewhere nearby so this doesn't happen. Yeah it wouldn't be exact, but better than getting over-written on an event to event basis. I would contact them and see if that is feasible. I don't think that would be too much trouble. Dept of Highways one isn't going to change, so it would have to be you even if they are the ones that suck (Office Space reference). 

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18 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yes I’m a trained spotter with an ID, been sending in reports for a decade now. The issue seems to be that I am in the same location as State Highway (1 S Prince Frederick in their metadata) so whomever sends in the latest report overwrites the other. Or at least that’s what I was told. This issue never occurred until last year, when they started using “Dept of Highways” measurements.

In the case of State Highway next to my house, the measurements are always too low and appear to be snow depth (that’s my guess anyway).

We sorta have that same issue here. The CO-OP is the city water filter location, and they are ALWAYS low on snow totals. Today is a classic case, they reported a 3.0. Out of the 7-10 reports sent in within a 15 mile radius of them, they were 2 inches lower than the next lowest measurement. I have 'ratted' them out before, went up and took a pic of their location with snow on the ground (granted, maybe only 1-1.5 inches, I'd reported 1.8 for the day) and sent it in to NWS Blacksburg after they had reported a 0.0. That seemed to help, they were closer for a number of years to other reports, but they may need a reminder again lol. If you look at a snowfall map for VA you can actually see Covington clearly in the contours. 24-36 all around and they are like 8-10. There are years where they report NO snow, 0.0 reported for winters of 95/96 and 96/97!! Only 40.0 reported for 09/10 when others around were in the 60-70 range. Frustrating. *rant off, lol*

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