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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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Measured another 0.75" from the light stuff in Burke, so that puts me at 6.75" total so far.

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Radar reallly lighting up over far NW WV and Pittsburgh. Hopeful that everyone gets another 2" - 4" on top of this as the sun sets.

Was about to say this. Really hoping it doesn't dry up too much in the mountains and we can pile up some evening fluff.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

1pm airport measurements

BWI: 5.8

DCA: 5.5

IAD: 4.6

Wow. BWI leads the pack, again. I thought DCA would have received the most, based on radar returns this morning.  But I guess BWI never went over to sleet while DCA probably did, briefly.

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It's a few small things all breaking the wrong way IMO.  Ratios are a part of the calculation, there was reason to believe higher ratios would pan out, but the DGZ ended up out of alignment with the best lift even during heavier precip.  Banding also did not work out for MD specifically.  And I think across the board guidance was maybe 10% overdone on QPF.  Add in those 3 minor errors and you end up with the low end of snowfall v high end.  It wasn't some huge bust, just some small misses on details imo.  

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a few small things all breaking the wrong way IMO.  Ratios are a part of the calculation, there was reason to believe higher ratios would pan out, but the DGZ ended up out of alignment with the best lift even during heavier precip.  Banding also did not work out for MD specifically.  And I think across the board guidance was maybe 10% overdone on QPF.  Add in those 3 minor errors and you end up with the low end of snowfall v high end.  It wasn't some huge bust, just some small misses on details imo.  

Yeah, I think that's all fair.  

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, I think that's all fair.  

Agree. I think given the data and parameters, the forecast was fair and well done. Someone was going to get double digit totals, and others were only going to reach the low end of the forecast range. I wouldn’t call it a bust, even though my backyard underperformed with the frontend thump. Dry air and poor snow growth really ate into the totals, but regardless it is a winter wonderland out there. It looks the same to me whether I got 6” or 9”. 

this surprise little “lake effect” band is a nice one though. Really fluffed things up! I’m happy with the way things turned out even though I got nowhere near the jackpot. 

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It hasn't stopped snowing here in north Rockville.  We've been sitting under the band for a while. Folks who shoveled earlier will need to go out again.  It looks like the new band has dropped another inch, but I don't have an official measurement.
Kids had a blast this morning.

Crazy how stationary that band has been


.
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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, I think that's all fair.  

I'm pretty underwhelmed and I think my perspective is off because it snowed 5" before I woke up and it was pinging by the time I measured. Picked up 1.75" since then, but aside from about 30 minutes of fluff, that part has been pretty pedestrian. All I need is 1.25" later to get to my 8" goal, but it doesn't feel like I'm actually close at all!

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Agree. I think given the data and parameters, the forecast was fair and well done. Someone was going to get double digit totals, and others were only going to reach the low end of the forecast range. I wouldn’t call it a bust, even though my backyard underperformed with the frontend thump. Dry air and poor snow growth really ate into the totals, but regardless it is a winter wonderland out there. It looks the same to me whether I got 6” or 9”. 

No matter if you get 6” or 9” when you combine it you get 69. All is good. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a few small things all breaking the wrong way IMO.  Ratios are a part of the calculation, there was reason to believe higher ratios would pan out, but the DGZ ended up out of alignment with the best lift even during heavier precip.  Banding also did not work out for MD specifically.  And I think across the board guidance was maybe 10% overdone on QPF.  Add in those 3 minor errors and you end up with the low end of snowfall v high end.  It wasn't some huge bust, just some small misses on details imo.  

Will have to wait and see how the evening round pans out, but thus far the HRRR, NAM 3K, RAP, and EURO were overdone, especially the high res - more like 30-40% overdone. I recall the HRRR showing 12-15”, it at least corrected some yesterday. The GFS and even to some degree the ICON had the right idea with heavier totals S and E.

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Agree. I think given the data and parameters, the forecast was fair and well done. Someone was going to get double digit totals, and others were only going to reach the low end of the forecast range. I wouldn’t call it a bust, even though my backyard underperformed with the frontend thump. Dry air and poor snow growth really ate into the totals, but regardless it is a winter wonderland out there. It looks the same to me whether I got 6” or 9”. 

 

Just now, mattie g said:

I'm pretty underwhelmed and I think my perspective is off because it snowed 5" before I woke up and it was pinging by the time I measured. Picked up 1.75" since then, but aside from about 30 minutes of fluff, that part has been pretty pedestrian. All I need is 1.25" later to get to my 8" goal, but it doesn't feel like I'm actually close at all!

I'm personally glad I stuck to my guns with 4-8" for MBY.  I was *really* tempted to go 6-10" after yesterday's 0z runs.  In the end, I think I'll end up close to 8" with the ULL snow.  So pretty spot on for MBY, although I know it's low-end most places elsewhere.  I think you'll get to 8" @mattie g.

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9 minutes ago, Skywalker03 said:

It hasn't stopped snowing here in north Rockville.  We've been sitting under the band for a while. Folks who shoveled earlier will need to go out again.  It looks like the new band has dropped another inch, but I don't have an official measurement.

Kids had a blast this morning.

Same here in Colesville. 

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I’d like to do a post-mortem when this is all said and done, but I think some of the ideas of the, “Why?” for this event have great merit. Just woke up. Going to go measure, but I’m sure it’s compacted a bit now. Still got hammered pretty good in these parts. It’s a winter wonderland outside. 

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8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Agree. I think given the data and parameters, the forecast was fair and well done. Someone was going to get double digit totals, and others were only going to reach the low end of the forecast range. I wouldn’t call it a bust, even though my backyard underperformed with the frontend thump. Dry air and poor snow growth really ate into the totals, but regardless it is a winter wonderland out there. It looks the same to me whether I got 6” or 9”. 

this surprise little “lake effect” band is a nice one though. Really fluffed things up! I’m happy with the way things turned out even though I got nowhere near the jackpot. 

It's been a nice little band! Those to my north probably did even better, but it's been pretty light or steady for a couple of hours now. Can't be too mad. 

Radar.gif

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2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

It's been a nice little band! Those to my north probably did even better, but it's been pretty light or steady for a couple of hours now. Can't be too mad. 

 

Nice, a little southern arm of that band is about to go over me...

 

Yep, right on schedule, some light snow resumed. Moderate size flakes

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