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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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2 minutes ago, katabatic said:

I really hope you do well my friend! Clouds are lowering and thickening here in GC and super excited. I hope you stay SN throughout the whole storm. 

That would be awesome, but I sorta doubt it will. I'll most certainly go sleet at some point, if not freezing rain. Just a little too far south for this one, still thinking we get 4-6 before the mess arrives. 

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49 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Well y’all, it’s finally here. We’ve been tracking this thing down for over 10 days and it all comes down to this. A small shoutout to NWP for being able to pick up on a threat this far out with n/s energy playing a role in it all. 
 

Currently 32/9 at my place. If you’re in the lowlands of AA county, this one is for us. The 25th percentile on the NBM as of early this morning for DCA/Annapolis/Crofton/Bowie/ @usedtobe hoods are ~7” and I don’t see that waver. My forecast for Annapolis and my area is 7-12” w/ local to 14” 

DC area: 6-10” w/ local to 12” 

Baltimore: 5-9” w/ local to 10” 

WV Panhandle: 5-10” w/ local to 11”

NoVA north of EZF: 6-12”

EZF south: 3-6” w/ some sleet

Area between Frederick-Baltimore-Silver Spring-Poolesville: 6-10” w/ local to 12”

Catoctins: 7-12” 

Rt15 corridor down to I-66 VA: 6-12”

West of Rt15 in MD: 5-10”

Western MD: 8-14” 

North of I-70 between Frederick and Baltimore: 5-8” w/ local to 10” (Trickiest area due to confluence signature to the north) 

Far Southern PA: 3-7” w/ local to 8” near the M/D plausible. Less further north you go. 
 

Eastern Shore North of Rt50 in MD ( @CAPE country): 5-9” w/ local to 10” 

Eastern Shore along and South of Rt50 until south of St Mary’s Co latitude: 4-8” w/ local to 10”

Delaware North of Dover: 4-8” w/ local to 10” 

Delaware South of Dover: 5-10” w/ local to 12” 

Jackpot Zone between MD32 down to Calvert County and over to Sussex Co DE: Storm max of 14” 

Tried my best on these and hopefully I’m in the ballpark. Woke up from my night shift slumber not long ago and ready to stay up the next 20-24 hrs. I will be working telework tonight and tomorrow night for safety reasons. Winter is here, and judging by the model guidance…it ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Enjoy everyone!! :sled:

I am so elated it's not even funny. Lots of my old friends in Dale City are jumping for joy. Where the hell are you Jebman? They asked. Helping my mom down in Texas get ready for a catastrophic 32 degree freeze down here. Lots pipes and plants.

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1 minute ago, weathercoins said:

I’d be shocked if any major school districts are open Tuesday tbh .  Monday is zero chance.

Yeah, absolutely no surprise that everyone will be (should be) shut down tomorrow for sure, given the confidence of widespread warning-level snows.  No point waiting until 4AM tomorrow morning to make that call.  And Tuesday certainly is a good bet in a lot of places too.

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3k NAM at 5pm Mon. not over yet.

IMG_4829.png

IMG_4830.png

Hints of W-E banding in those 10+ inch stripes...within one band in a historically favored area (along I-70). Me thinks the disparity will be a little more in reality. As in, 7-8" vs. 10-11"+ within those bands. Good to see the latest NAM Nest depict what I think could be reality; we all just hope in our back yards we're not in between bands. 

Then again, that's being greedy, no? :D

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9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

With a winter storm warning, it’s a given. I am serious about that. No schools open during a warning.

Good to know. They closed, just got a news alert.

9 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

Yeah I think by 7-8 PM tonight it'll be across the board. Including Baltimore City.

I still hear "But Baltimore City schools are STILL OPEN" in my nightmares.

BCPS just closed

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34/7

Final call (quick thoughts):

Bumping up numbers for DC-annapolis-delmarva. 6-12” locally 15” somewhere ESE of DC. That’s along a 30-40 mile swath centered on i-66 + US 50.

No longer worried about mixing imby. Mix line stops somewhere between EZF and dumfries, then retreats south as coastal takes over. 

4-8” between south side of DC beltway and EZF, 2-4” mix south

Along i-70 should still see 5-10”, then drop off to 3-6” along M/D line. 

Sorry if sloppy, am on mobile

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I’m on shift this evening at the Command Center. Can tell you the convection down south is significant…tops over 40,000 feet in January. The tap is out of the gulf into very cold air. The rates here will be impressive after midnight and I would expect the snow to pile up fast so the high res models that have been showing this are likely correct. Do believe we will see 90% of our snowfall up until 10 am Monday/15Z. Upper pattern looks reasonable to support light snow into Monday night. South of 66/50 still could see a few pingers mixed in with all the WAA and latent heat release but not too significant. Dynamic event and I always side conservatively in here.
 

 

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dang it lol. I figured the warning was a tease and mirage but I'm lovin it no matter. Bottom of the hill is a little marina on the lake. I could sled 50mph right into the lake hahaha 20250105_150241.thumb.jpg.c21e74bc8a6602c3243dbfd94d2648a5.jpg

Would be amazing sledding onto it if the lake was frozen. :) You would go for miles

 

 

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Ah got it, thanks.  Yeah here’s the sounding.  I know I’ll mix for a time but this 3k run is basically perfect for DC.  

image.thumb.png.a4210073e8a98a03a82689a0827894e8.png

My guess is if it played out exactly as the 3k NAM shows, areas near DC would mix in lighter precip right around 12z. Heavies would stay snow probably.

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