wxdude64 Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM 2 minutes ago, katabatic said: I really hope you do well my friend! Clouds are lowering and thickening here in GC and super excited. I hope you stay SN throughout the whole storm. That would be awesome, but I sorta doubt it will. I'll most certainly go sleet at some point, if not freezing rain. Just a little too far south for this one, still thinking we get 4-6 before the mess arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m sure BCPS will follow suit With a winter storm warning, it’s a given. I am serious about that. No schools open during a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m sure BCPS will follow suit Yeah I think by 7-8 PM tonight it'll be across the board. Including Baltimore City. I still hear "But Baltimore City schools are STILL OPEN" in my nightmares. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM #closefcps 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM Just now, RickinBaltimore said: Yeah I think by 7-8 PM tonight it'll be across the board. Including Baltimore City. I still hear "But Baltimore City schools are STILL OPEN" in my nightmares. I’d be shocked if any major school districts are open Tuesday tbh . Monday is zero chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Not many. Small hints on the nam and euro at some points, but the in house models from the local tv stations were the best and most aggressive by far. I don’t think tv stations have numerical predictions models or super computers.. but maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM Hi Res models bringing 10-11” totals to the Columbia - Baltimore corridor as well. Interested to see how that area does since it’s my biggest ?? going into this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:13 PM 49 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Well y’all, it’s finally here. We’ve been tracking this thing down for over 10 days and it all comes down to this. A small shoutout to NWP for being able to pick up on a threat this far out with n/s energy playing a role in it all. Currently 32/9 at my place. If you’re in the lowlands of AA county, this one is for us. The 25th percentile on the NBM as of early this morning for DCA/Annapolis/Crofton/Bowie/ @usedtobe hoods are ~7” and I don’t see that waver. My forecast for Annapolis and my area is 7-12” w/ local to 14” DC area: 6-10” w/ local to 12” Baltimore: 5-9” w/ local to 10” WV Panhandle: 5-10” w/ local to 11” NoVA north of EZF: 6-12” EZF south: 3-6” w/ some sleet Area between Frederick-Baltimore-Silver Spring-Poolesville: 6-10” w/ local to 12” Catoctins: 7-12” Rt15 corridor down to I-66 VA: 6-12” West of Rt15 in MD: 5-10” Western MD: 8-14” North of I-70 between Frederick and Baltimore: 5-8” w/ local to 10” (Trickiest area due to confluence signature to the north) Far Southern PA: 3-7” w/ local to 8” near the M/D plausible. Less further north you go. Eastern Shore North of Rt50 in MD ( @CAPE country): 5-9” w/ local to 10” Eastern Shore along and South of Rt50 until south of St Mary’s Co latitude: 4-8” w/ local to 10” Delaware North of Dover: 4-8” w/ local to 10” Delaware South of Dover: 5-10” w/ local to 12” Jackpot Zone between MD32 down to Calvert County and over to Sussex Co DE: Storm max of 14” Tried my best on these and hopefully I’m in the ballpark. Woke up from my night shift slumber not long ago and ready to stay up the next 20-24 hrs. I will be working telework tonight and tomorrow night for safety reasons. Winter is here, and judging by the model guidance…it ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Enjoy everyone!! I am so elated it's not even funny. Lots of my old friends in Dale City are jumping for joy. Where the hell are you Jebman? They asked. Helping my mom down in Texas get ready for a catastrophic 32 degree freeze down here. Lots pipes and plants. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:14 PM 35/11 in Alexandria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM 18z 3Km NAM is incredibly nice 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM 1 minute ago, weathercoins said: I’d be shocked if any major school districts are open Tuesday tbh . Monday is zero chance. Yeah, absolutely no surprise that everyone will be (should be) shut down tomorrow for sure, given the confidence of widespread warning-level snows. No point waiting until 4AM tomorrow morning to make that call. And Tuesday certainly is a good bet in a lot of places too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted Sunday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:16 PM 33.9/12.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted Sunday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:16 PM 3k NAM has 1” of QPF at midnight on Tuesday at DCA with snow still falling. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 18z 3Km NAM is incredibly nice The plot I saw above a little earlier (and it was still ongoing?) showed the precip/snow expanded a lot farther north. What's the "final" amount look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3k NAM at 5pm Mon. not over yet. Hints of W-E banding in those 10+ inch stripes...within one band in a historically favored area (along I-70). Me thinks the disparity will be a little more in reality. As in, 7-8" vs. 10-11"+ within those bands. Good to see the latest NAM Nest depict what I think could be reality; we all just hope in our back yards we're not in between bands. Then again, that's being greedy, no? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM WB 18Z 3K NAM 2am Tuesday; fantastic run!!!! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:18 PM 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: 3k NAM has 1” of QPF at midnight on Tuesday at DCA with snow still falling. Backend fluff still going. Temps in low 20s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:20 PM 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: With a winter storm warning, it’s a given. I am serious about that. No schools open during a warning. Good to know. They closed, just got a news alert. 9 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: Yeah I think by 7-8 PM tonight it'll be across the board. Including Baltimore City. I still hear "But Baltimore City schools are STILL OPEN" in my nightmares. BCPS just closed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:21 PM 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 3k NAM has 1” of QPF at midnight on Tuesday at DCA with snow still falling. No mixing looking at the soundings either. 12z Monday is closest but all levels <0c. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:22 PM 34/7 Final call (quick thoughts): Bumping up numbers for DC-annapolis-delmarva. 6-12” locally 15” somewhere ESE of DC. That’s along a 30-40 mile swath centered on i-66 + US 50. No longer worried about mixing imby. Mix line stops somewhere between EZF and dumfries, then retreats south as coastal takes over. 4-8” between south side of DC beltway and EZF, 2-4” mix south Along i-70 should still see 5-10”, then drop off to 3-6” along M/D line. Sorry if sloppy, am on mobile 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM I’m on shift this evening at the Command Center. Can tell you the convection down south is significant…tops over 40,000 feet in January. The tap is out of the gulf into very cold air. The rates here will be impressive after midnight and I would expect the snow to pile up fast so the high res models that have been showing this are likely correct. Do believe we will see 90% of our snowfall up until 10 am Monday/15Z. Upper pattern looks reasonable to support light snow into Monday night. South of 66/50 still could see a few pingers mixed in with all the WAA and latent heat release but not too significant. Dynamic event and I always side conservatively in here. 24 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:25 PM 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: No mixing looking at the soundings either. 12z Monday is closest but all levels <0c. 12z looks isothermal at 0C for a layer near 750mb. But colder before and after. Brief mixing if anything for DC proper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 08:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:26 PM 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dang it lol. I figured the warning was a tease and mirage but I'm lovin it no matter. Bottom of the hill is a little marina on the lake. I could sled 50mph right into the lake hahaha Would be amazing sledding onto it if the lake was frozen. You would go for miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:30 PM Just now, WxUSAF said: 12z looks isothermal at 0C for a layer near 750mb. But colder before and after. Brief mixing if anything for DC proper. Ah got it, thanks. Yeah here’s the sounding. I know I’ll mix for a time but this 3k run is basically perfect for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Sunday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:32 PM Just caught up. Radar is glowing and models showing wreckage. It’s cold AF out and snow is pushing in. LFG! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:35 PM 24 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: Yeah I think by 7-8 PM tonight it'll be across the board. Including Baltimore City. I still hear "But Baltimore City schools are STILL OPEN" in my nightmares. They called it, got the text about 20 minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM So refreshing to have 32 degrees - and it feels colder - the day before a big one. It absolutely reeks of winter today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Ah got it, thanks. Yeah here’s the sounding. I know I’ll mix for a time but this 3k run is basically perfect for DC. My guess is if it played out exactly as the 3k NAM shows, areas near DC would mix in lighter precip right around 12z. Heavies would stay snow probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Sunday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:37 PM I’m skeptical that DC will see any kind of mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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