Wxtrix Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:23 PM 2 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Is there a link to official spotter measurements around the area so far? https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Monday at 06:24 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:24 PM Back to mod snow. Hoping to reach 8” between this band and the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:26 PM 18 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea, I saw that part and got hyped lol, but I was mostly looking at the precip amounts and Euro still seemed farther south with the 0.5" line than the GFS/Nam. Agree with the rest. I think across the board ALL the guidance was a bit overdone and the storm just ended up dryer and weaker than they depicted. The places winning with 8-10" were the places the guidance was spitting out crazy 16" totals! Across the board most places are going to end up under what the guidance was showing. It happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Been lucky here in Leesburg with that band of moderate to heavy snow training over the area. Looks like an additional 1.5 inches or so from that...pretty fluffy stuff. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:27 PM 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: Damn. This band might be producing best snows of the day here in HoCo. It’s like the perfect scene outside right now. Stupid me cleared the cars off for apparently no reason. I'm lurking in the thread. Originally from Baltimore but live in N NH now. I use the leafblower to clear our cars if the temperature is below around 28F. The fluff later will blow right off. Enjoy. Meanwhile mostly bare ground up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Cautiously optimistic that Maryland gets 2" - 3" on the back side this afternoon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Monday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:28 PM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: These are the same...as the ULL crosses the area it wrings out what's left of the moisture behind the weak developing coastal. This evening would be the time. Thanks 5-7pm time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted Monday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:28 PM It’s ripping fatties under the heavy band 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Monday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:30 PM 6 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow Yup the 4.9 is what I reported at 9:28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Monday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:31 PM 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Every forecast I saw including mine, had that max down near DC and points southeast. I had it SLIGHTLY too far north but not by that much. The real bust was in the banding just north of there associated with the H7 forcing, the models expected there to be more overlap and have those two features connected, in reality the H7 band pushed up way into central PA and left a huge dead zone in between the h85fgen zone that hit DC south and the banding up in PA. That killed a lot of MD. This was missed by the euro also which had 6-8" across northern MD. Correct me if I'm totally off base here, but wasn't the Euro kind of showing that 700mb band setting up across central PA back Friday night/Sat? See the Jan 4 00z run below. And then as a compounding factor, perhaps the precipitation depiction was just not as accurate up that way because of how dry the antecedent airmass was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Monday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:31 PM 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Cautiously optimistic that Maryland gets 2" - 3" on the back side this afternoon. What about D.C.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Monday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:32 PM First time all day there’s zero snow falling from the sky. As a result the temp shot up to 26.5°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted Monday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:34 PM 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro was giving you 9" yesterday! It busted just as bad as the GFS across MD. Now if you are talking about the time period around 72-100 hours when the GFS has a few runs where it had the axis of heaviest snow way up in PA yea that was way off...but before that the euro had a few runs it tried to cut, then a run it went way too far south and washed out, we can go back and forth. Overall the euro was better I am not denying that. But both the Euro and GFS yesterday showed similar snowfall across MD and they both busted. Whats the 10:1 map look like? I feel like everyone was using Kuchera or whatever map gave the most snow. I've rarely seen high ratio snows in central MD. Looking at the euro precip map, most of MD is in a .5-.75" band. To me, that tracks with what we've seen. I've got over 6" in Howard County and its still snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Monday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:34 PM 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think across the board ALL the guidance was a bit overdone and the storm just ended up dryer and weaker than they depicted. The places winning with 8-10" were the places the guidance was spitting out crazy 16" totals! Across the board most places are going to end up under what the guidance was showing. It happens. I think we all also got a little fast and loose with the Kuchera ratios. Usually Kuchera gives us less than 10:1 so we mostly ignore it. This time it was >10:1 and we bought that too much. I'd guess my total precipitation amount is not far off the ~0.5" the 12z Euro and 3k Nam gave me yesterday. Nearest PWS actually has 0.49" and it's clogged with snow (hasn't updated in awhile). Think we just ignored that most of this morning stuff would be ~10:1. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Monday at 06:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:35 PM So what's going on now? Radar is filling in along the mason dixon line and that band just north of DC. HRRR doesn't have either of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM 13 minutes ago, Kay said: I wish I'd managed to get another photo from my walk to post....this dude rode by on an electric motorbike in a FULL SANTA SUIT. Knew it had to be a snow weenie. Exchanged the snow weenie wave. LMAO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM 1 minute ago, TSG said: Correct me if I'm totally off base here, but wasn't the Euro kind of showing that 700mb band setting up across central PA back Friday night/Sat? See the Jan 4 00z run below. And then as a compounding factor, perhaps the precipitation depiction was just not as accurate up that way because of how dry the antecedent airmass was? It was moving it around run to run, as was the Hrrr and GFS, and I was actually concerned this split might happen because there were some runs that did this, but didn't want to deb up the thread leading into the storm. But the last 24 hours or so it was showing good banding with high ratios across the MD line area, as were most of the other CAM and global models. Yes there were "hints" this would happen, I noted a couple odd runs on the HRRR that showed this split scenario, and I think a run of the HRDERPS showed it correct, but it was never the majority depiction run to run across any guidance so it was easy for me to just keep it in the back of my mind but not worry about it too much. But these kinds of things are delicate and difficult to pin down. It's simple when you have a more amplified wave with a larger more expansive and uniform CCB induced precip shield. But these weaker waves where most of the heavy snowfall is depending on banding in specific forcing drive regions are more difficult to predict and you get more fluky variance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think we all also got a little fast and loose with the Kuchera ratios. Usually Kuchera gives us less than 10:1 so we mostly ignore it. This time it was >10:1 and we bought that too much. I'd guess my total precipitation amount is not far off the ~0.5" the 12z Euro and 3k Nam gave me yesterday. Nearest PWS actually has 0.49" and it's clogged with snow (hasn't updated in awhile). Think we just ignored that most of this morning stuff would be ~10:1. It had D.C. consistently over .8" qpf. That did not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Pixie Dust has finally stopped, first time its let up all day. 7.25" on the deck in Gainesville, up from close to 6.5" at around 8:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Nice dendrites from this “lake effect”-like band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Got 5.5 inches now. Light snow falling. Here in sparrows point MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:38 PM You can see the mason dixon line band and the skinny moco band starting to merge a bit. Maybe a larger more coherent precip shield forming over maryland? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted Monday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:40 PM 27 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Anyone in Germantown. That band has seemingly been over the area for 2 hours now. . I am I'm eyeballing 7-8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted Monday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:40 PM 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: You can see the mason dixon line band and the skinny moco band starting to merge a bit. Maybe a larger more coherent precip shield forming over maryland? We need that sweet MoCo band to come like a tiny jog south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Monday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:42 PM HRRR is nothing like radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted Monday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:42 PM 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It had D.C. consistently over .8" qpf. That did not happen. DCA's already at .73". Are you discounting the possibility of a tenth more tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Just now, Ravens94 said: HRRR is nothing like radar Man I want that as much as you do, but I’d say that’s pretty damn close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Still snowing down in Calvert but it's really fine and not amounting to much. Wind is picking up now. The guidance, especially the euro, was pretty spot on for us so far. I measure 10.75" on my deck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Radar reallly lighting up over far NW WV and Pittsburgh. Hopeful that everyone gets another 2" - 4" on top of this as the sun sets. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Just now, gymengineer said: DCA's already at .73". Are you discounting the possibility of a tenth more tonight? Have we melted since the 5.5" measurement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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