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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Unfortunately some of that stuff will dry up once it gets east of the Apps due to downsloping and that the upper energy is sinking a bit south...but its going to be VERY close...maybe this one it goes our way.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately some of that stuff will dry up once it gets east of the Apps due to downsloping and that the upper energy is sinking a bit south...but its going to be VERY close...maybe this one it goes our way.  

We could employ weenie logic that it was too far north on part 1, so part 2 will go a bit north :scooter:

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51 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why are a lot of people crying bust? It's within the forecast range.

It's because nws started saying 16 inches in parts of North Virginia.  I was so happy about this, that I got so fooking elated, that last night in 29 degree conditions in 53 mph wind gusts and -22 wind chills, that I was damn near close to running naked on Main Street in Buda at 3am! Then that damned SLEET crapped the bed! Damn sleet! 

It was supposed to stay south.

Dale City is not a snow town.

It's a sleet town.

It's like playing the mega millions for years and still ending up poor as shyte after all.

Sometimes I wish I lived on Mammoth Mountain. They never get the sleet. They get 450 inches of pow a year.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-6337600.thumb.png.0915b62bca3e6bbd732a4f52573da709.png

The euro was giving you 9" yesterday!  It busted just as bad as the GFS across MD.  Now if you are talking about the time period around 72-100 hours when the GFS has a few runs where it had the axis of heaviest snow way up in PA yea that was way off...but before that the euro had a few runs it tried to cut, then a run it went way too far south and washed out, we can go back and forth.  Overall the euro was better I am not denying that.  But both the Euro and GFS yesterday showed similar snowfall across MD and they both busted.   

Yea, I saw that part and got hyped lol, but I was mostly looking at the precip amounts and Euro still seemed farther south with the 0.5" line than the GFS/Nam.  Agree with the rest.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-6337600.thumb.png.0915b62bca3e6bbd732a4f52573da709.png

The euro was giving you 9" yesterday!  It busted just as bad as the GFS across MD.  Now if you are talking about the time period around 72-100 hours when the GFS has a few runs where it had the axis of heaviest snow way up in PA yea that was way off...but before that the euro had a few runs it tried to cut, then a run it went way too far south and washed out, we can go back and forth.  Overall the euro was better I am not denying that.  But both the Euro and GFS yesterday showed similar snowfall across MD and they both busted.   

The 9 in Frederick us actually 4.5 and my areas 10 is 6-7

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately some of that stuff will dry up once it gets east of the Apps due to downsloping and that the upper energy is sinking a bit south...but its going to be VERY close...maybe this one it goes our way.  

Lwx radar is now showing radar returns to our west heading toward us. Give it some time. We have a NE flow to help with mtn loss, but it's a nail biter.

Anyway, my call of 3-5" from early yesterday looks good now. But honestly, if we do get a lucky break on that stuff out west, I  could bust low as I  measured 2.75" this morning. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately some of that stuff will dry up once it gets east of the Apps due to downsloping and that the upper energy is sinking a bit south...but its going to be VERY close...maybe this one it goes our way.  

More serious reply, the vort isn't headed much south of due east thus far. 

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10 minutes ago, Jebman said:

It's because nws started saying 16 inches in parts of North Virginia.  I was so happy about this, that I got so fooking elated, that last night in 29 degree conditions in 53 mph wind gusts and -22 wind chills, that I was damn near close to running naked on Main Street in Buda at 3am! Then that damned SLEET crapped the bed! Damn sleet! 

It was supposed to stay south.

Dale City is not a snow town.

It's a sleet town.

It's like playing the mega millions for years and still ending up poor as shyte after all.

Sometimes I wish I lived on Mammoth Mountain. They never get the sleet. They get 450 inches of pow a year.

To be fair they said localized which was intended on capturing any insane banding. Most had the region was forecasted between 6-12. 

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In Baltimore, it's nice to be having a steady, light snow (when we are supposed to have dry slotted), that still is accumulating and re-coating surfaces, in the middle of the day. Not a lot of snowfalls around here in the city where you can you see light now + daylight + accumulation.

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6 minutes ago, DarthHokie said:

To be fair they said localized which was intended on capturing any insane banding. Most had the region was forecasted between 6-12. 

That's true. They were talking about where the banding set up. I guess the forecast was good. BUT they didn't say anything  about the dreaded pingers. We all thought the sleet was gonna stay safely south. Of course N VA had to have some sleet. And guess what? Yeah. The sleet cut down on totals. I hate warm noses, or whatever caused the accursed sleet.

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11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So we have two more parts remaining?

The coastal and the ULL drop in?

can someone go thru a narrative and time line for those two ?

These are the same...as the ULL crosses the area it wrings out what's left of the moisture behind the weak developing coastal.  This evening would be the time.  

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Just now, Warm Nose said:

I'm in that band on the west side and right up against the northern edge of it. It's been varying in intensity but has put down about another 3/4-1" total in the past couple of hours.

I'm on the south side of that band, and I've picked up about the same amount. Even added more since my last measurement.

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