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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Models  did a C- overall 

Showed 1-12” up to 2 days out and then centered in on a 5-10” range with talks of over that. Lots of sleet talk which mostly did not happen. 
Nowcasting  trumped models and I discussed the nw to se slant as troublesome and in fact anyone north of that did not get more than 4”.  5-7” for right  around DC so that was in the forecast range low side 

We aren’t done yet. DC could get another 2-3 this evening and that would put us in the mid to high end of the forecast range. 

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17 minutes ago, TSG said:

That's exactly the time period I'm talking about. I think some people held onto that and then the 48hr 12k NAM showed a similar northern track and it was all over for reasonable consideration of the more southern solutions. And yes, it didn't get every detail right, but the end result was closer than what the GFS was advertising. It def nailed the central VA forecast

Every forecast I saw including mine, had that max down near DC and points southeast.  I had it SLIGHTLY too far north but not by that much.  The real bust was in the banding just north of there associated with the H7 forcing, the models expected there to be more overlap and have those two features connected, in reality the H7 band pushed up way into central PA and left a huge dead zone in between the h85fgen zone that hit DC south and the banding up in PA.  That killed a lot of MD.  This was missed by the euro also which had 6-8" across northern MD.  

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2 minutes ago, DarthHokie said:

Thats for the full storm. And its not over.. so yes you are still in range

1. I will be shocked if I get 50% as much as I've gotten so far in Round 2. Deeply skeptical - but you're right, it's not impossible.

2. As I mentioned in another post: it isn't just the amounts, it's the nature of the event. The rates were never remotely good, the flakes were pixie dust the entire time - just a boring, underwhelming, and not very dynamic event up here. After days and days of hype about how intense it would be. Just a bummer. 

3. None of this is that big of a deal. Very happy for my southern friends who are cashing in - they get screwed all too often, so a good win is very welcome. I'm not losing any sleep about any of this, just pointing out the fact that it's been a letdown here in MBY and other parts of Baltimore on north.

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
You two might be arguing over time ranges...the GFS was way too far north for a time at like 72-100 hours then it corrected.  By yesterday the GFS and Euro were pretty close together...the Euro gave me 6" yesterday and as recently 7" on the 0z run last night...it busted on the banding in northern MD also.  It did nail the main banding that hit south of DC though.  The band it put over northern MD ended up up in central PA.   No model had that correct.  


I think overall the Euro took charge (as it typically does). Need to see how round 2 performs, but the American models were kind of on an island with giving my location upwards of 0.5”+ liquid equivalent whereas most of the other models were struggling to budge north. Consensus seems to have won so far.

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3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

1. I will be shocked if I get 50% as much as I've gotten so far in Round 2. Deeply skeptical - but you're right, it's not impossible.

2. As I mentioned in another post: it isn't just the amounts, it's the nature of the event. The rates were never remotely good, the flakes were pixie dust the entire time - just a boring, underwhelming, and not very dynamic event up here. After days and days of hype about how intense it would be. Just a bummer. 

3. None of this is that big of a deal. Very happy for my southern friends who are cashing in - they get screwed all too often, so a good win is very welcome. I'm not losing any sleep about any of this, just pointing out the fact that it's been a letdown here in MBY and other parts of Baltimore on north.

I don't think it is that bad in southern part of Baltimore City (Federal Hill). Just measured 4.5 inches.  Still snowing intermittently.  If we can get another 1 to 2 inches later, it will have basically have met the forecast for 6 to 8 inches. We never did see the intense snowfall rates, but got close to about 1 inch an hour for a period of time around 7 to 9 a.m.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:


I think overall the Euro took charge (as it typically does). Need to see how round 2 performs, but the American models were kind of on an island with giving my location upwards of 0.5” liquid equivalent whereas most of the other models weren’t struggling to budge north. Consensus seems to have won so far.

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-6337600.thumb.png.0915b62bca3e6bbd732a4f52573da709.png

The euro was giving you 9" yesterday!  It busted just as bad as the GFS across MD.  Now if you are talking about the time period around 72-100 hours when the GFS has a few runs where it had the axis of heaviest snow way up in PA yea that was way off...but before that the euro had a few runs it tried to cut, then a run it went way too far south and washed out, we can go back and forth.  Overall the euro was better I am not denying that.  But both the Euro and GFS yesterday showed similar snowfall across MD and they both busted.   

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