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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Exactly. The Euro, Canadian models and UKMET all insisted on this northern MD disappointment, and so this turned out to be another typical post-2016 storm.

IMO the LWX did a great job hedging on this uncertainty, and so I think the 4-8” forecast will end up right on point.

Those of us who live up north but not quite Mt PSU will eventually get ours. And it will be glorious. I just hope it will be this year.

I can't fault them for their call. Climo called for banding on the north side. Just didn't happen. Instead we got a loose piece way up north. The NAM was right on target at the final hour. I keep saying every year that the NAM is nowhere near as bad as people like to think when used correctly. 

Very happy with the result down here in DC. (I'm actually in Adams Morgan now; I need to change my location.) 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You two might be arguing over time ranges...the GFS was way too far north for a time at like 72-100 hours then it corrected.  By yesterday the GFS and Euro were pretty close together...the Euro gave me 6" yesterday and as recently 7" on the 0z run last night...it busted on the banding in northern MD also.  It did nail the main banding that hit south of DC though.  The band it put over northern MD ended up up in central PA.   No model had that correct.  

That's exactly the time period I'm talking about. I think some people held onto that and then the ~48hr NAM showed a similar northern track and it was all over for reasonable consideration of the more southern solutions. And yes, it didn't get every detail right, but the end result was closer than what the GFS was advertising. It def nailed the central VA forecast

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6 minutes ago, DarthHokie said:

Because they were hedging on the model output extremes.  Not the actual forecase put out by nws

The actual forecast out here was 8 - 12, and they added the caveat about banding to localized 18".  I have 4" with this latest light band.  So this was not the NWS's finest hour.   

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40-year NOVA alum watching from afar.  Great pics and looks like a nice winter event for most of you!

All those winters up there trained me to never count on the high-end scenarios from any model run.

4+ is pretty good, even if a bummer after signals for much higher totals.

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Models  did a C- overall 

Showed 1-12” up to 2 days out and then centered in on a 5-10” range with talks of over that. Lots of sleet talk which mostly did not happen. 
Nowcasting  trumped models and I discussed the nw to se slant as troublesome and in fact anyone north of that did not get more than 4”.  5-7” for right  around DC so that was in the forecast range low side 

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