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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

The euro showed a heavy snow axis is southern VA up until the bell. The GFS all but excelled on this. It then moved north with every other model till the end other then the GFS. It's wrong and is still wrong. The only reason it's less up here is the dry air was stronger then modeled and the banding went north into PA. 

Screenshot_20250106_120829_Chrome.jpg

Whatever makes you feel better dude. The GFS had the significant precip way too far north

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11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Exactly. The Euro, Canadian models and UKMET all insisted on this northern MD disappointment, and so this turned out to be another typical post-2016 storm.

IMO the LWX did a great job hedging on this uncertainty, and so I think the 4-8” forecast will end up right on point.

Those of us who live up north but not quite Mt PSU will eventually get ours. And it will be glorious. I just hope it is this year.

My forecast in the a.m. yesterday was for 6-9”.  In the afternoon, it was raised to 8-12”.  I’m at 3” so far. With all respect to LWX, who I think does a great job, it wasn’t a stellar call for this area.

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27 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

My average over those winters is 8”.  Which is 50% of climo.  So we’re basically the same. You’ve just happened to go Aaron Judge in the high leverage events.  And of course we all want to jack the big events or overperform.  So I get it. But the idea that the “south” has done well is wrong 

I think it's all a matter of perspective.  I get a LOT of snow up here from 1" at a time minor events that add up...but I would trade all of them in to get a few more inches from actual snowstorms!  I don't even notice those 1" things.  I've done really poor in our actual "storms" recently.  In the end I think both area's have done equally bad wrt to averages, but DC has hit on a higher % of actualy snowstorms and that matters more to me than the seasonal total.  I would take a winter where I get 20" from 2 storms than a winter where I get 30" but it all comes 1-3" at a time.  That is just me.  

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2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

My forecast in the a.m. yesterday was for 6-9”.  In the afternoon, it was raised to 8-12”.  I’m at 3” so far.  With all respect to LWX, who I think does a great job, it wasn’t a stellar call for this area.

Same. I knew I was on the far northern edge of high totals, but only 2.5" here even with that uncertainty. 

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3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

My forecast in the a.m. yesterday was for 6-9”.  In the afternoon, it was raised to 8-12”.  I’m at 3” so far.  With all respect to LWX, who I think does a great job, it wasn’t a stellar call for this area.

Absolutely.  The American models stunk for the Northern MD

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20 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said:

Just under 4" in my Towson backyard, but this should help the totals for us Baltimore area peeps.

3.jpg

Nope, it's sliding south of us and dissipating a bit. NGL, I didn't have massive expectations, but this is definitely a disappointment so far. About as boring a 4 inches as you'll ever see....mostly pixie dust and never really great rates.

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9 minutes ago, TSG said:

Whatever makes you feel better dude. The GFS had the significant precip way too far north

You two might be arguing over time ranges...the GFS was way too far north for a time at like 72-100 hours then it corrected.  By yesterday the GFS and Euro were pretty close together...the Euro gave me 6" yesterday and as recently 7" on the 0z run last night...it busted on the banding in northern MD also.  It did nail the main banding that hit south of DC though.  The band it put over northern MD ended up up in central PA.   No model had that correct.  

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Just now, TowsonWeather said:

Nope, it's sliding south of us and dissipating a bit. NGL, I didn't have massive expectations, but this is definitely a disappointment so far. About as boring a 4 inches as you'll ever see....mostly pixie dust and never really great rates.

Here in Dundalk, from about 630am to 9am was pretty cool. But outside of that, it’s been light snow, pixie dust or now just snain 

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5 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

My forecast in the a.m. yesterday was for 6-9”.  In the afternoon, it was raised to 8-12”.  I’m at 3” so far.  With all respect to LWX, who I think does a great job, it wasn’t a stellar call for this area.

Yeah, that is a true bust. You never really know where the banding will set up and this system seems especially reliant on them.

And it’s disappointing when the 3k NAM repeatedly showed a solid swath of 8-12” at close range.

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