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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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1 minute ago, vastateofmind said:

Oddly enough (for our corner of SE FfxCo), it's not really let up here since daybreak, vacillating between light to mod snow, and only had pingers in the 7-8am hour. Rates are picking back up again here.

Nice!  Yeah just S/SE of me has been in the better banding.  But even here it's been light snow the last few hours and no break which is great.  Back to mod snow with dendrites now.  So pretty outside. 

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Just now, TSG said:

Not trying to make the northern crew feel even worse, I do feel bad for y'all, but this is the result the Euro was showing for days that many posters on were heavily discounting/tossing. Remember it for the next storm! And don't ride the 48hr NAM!

It's quite simple really. Ride the model that gives you the most snow, expect the model that shows the least to be right. 

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If it was me again in Dale City I would take no chances, and no prisoners. I would go out there and dig every fracking flake of snow I could find. I would shovel the driveway, the walk, even the whole damn road! I would pile that precious snow on the north sides of sunlight blocking objects, and pile it crazy high. You know when you live in Northern Virginia  you gotta make the best of things, and man did I fucking embarrass the fook out of everyone back when I was so young and I worshipped snow like Bitcoin and prompts today. My late dad used to cry when I got into this mode. You gotta get out there. You gotta dig it. You gotta dog it. You gotta get every last flake. I lived in Dale City and you better believe I knew where I lived, and it sure was not Mammoth Ski Resort. I went out and I dug snow til my arm fell off and my back was obliterated. I piled snow until I KNEW I would have snow in my yard until August, until people stared at crazy Jebman and gaped, with their lower jaws resting on the ground.

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1 minute ago, TSG said:

Not trying to make the northern crew feel even worse, I do feel bad for y'all, but this is the result the Euro was showing for days that many posters on were heavily discounting/tossing. Remember it for the next storm! And don't ride the 48hr NAM!

The euro showed a heavy snow axis is southern VA up until the bell. The GFS all but excelled on this. It then moved north with every other model till the end other then the GFS. It's wrong and is still wrong. The only reason it's less up here is the dry air was stronger then modeled and the banding went north into PA. 

Screenshot_20250106_120829_Chrome.jpg

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7 minutes ago, TSG said:

Not trying to make the northern crew feel even worse, I do feel bad for y'all, but this is the result the Euro was showing for days that many posters in here were heavily discounting/tossing. Remember it for the next storm! And don't ride the 48hr NAM!

Exactly. The Euro, Canadian models and UKMET all insisted on this northern MD disappointment, and so this turned out to be another typical post-2016 storm.

IMO the LWX did a great job hedging on this uncertainty, and so I think the 4-8” forecast will end up right on point.

Those of us who live up north but not quite Mt PSU will eventually get ours. And it will be glorious. I just hope it will be this year.

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