January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs

[IUsedToHateCold]

Snow has tapered off. I’m currently at 6.25 inches. 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. It has been an absolute squeeze job, and I'm trying to figure out why. It's like the climo has shifted or something so that we just don't do well enough in these west-east slider like systems...it's like it always favored south of me, and I don't ever remember another time where even I, not being as far north as you, got fringed this much. Ordinarily it's DC with temp/mixing issues...but since 2019 they haven't had that with these types of sytems. I will never trust a system like this again unless it shows mixing south of me. Heavy rates just don't get up here that way lately...smh

I think it's just bad luck exacerbated by small sample size.  We've been in a generally bad pattern for a long time, which means less snow chances.  When you reduce the number of snow events it increases variance and the chances of something like this happening if you get unlucky a few times.  Additionally we've been stuck in a nina like pacific base state, and that does increase the chances of sliders and storms that affect further southeast in our regions MORE wrt averages.  

My area for instance, dud REALLY well in good snowfall years like 1996, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2015.  Yes everyone did good...but up here got crazy high snowfall in those years...over 100" in 2010 and around 90" in 2014 for example.  We haven't had many of those "good" snowfall years lately for this area to clean up.  In bad years, we do tend to do better...but not as much better wrt to averages than in better years.  

WRT Baltimore, I think its just been bad luck...you missed better snowfall by like 10 miles in either direction several times recently.  I think over a longer sample size that will even out.  

[Wxtrix]

4" so far. it was snowing teeny tiny flakes for a while, but these bands/blobs have had light snow with big flakes. it's really pretty outside.

[WEATHER53]

So now we see if the rarely  productive transfer coastal does  something for DC 

[AACOUNTYMD]

burst has slowed.  probably got 1.5 since about 9:00  total is 6.5.  still doing. . . something.   went on a WAWA run, 97 largely covered, all back roads covered.  

[North Balti Zen]

46 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You said it well, the corridor along 70 east of the Catoctins up through Westminster proper and across to say Hunt Valley and north have been the worst off relative to their averages. Even in my area, the November storm was rain/snow mix 3 miles from me, 1" a couple streets down, but 2.5" up here at 900ft. 

fwiw, you can extend that across 83 running east along the north to Sparks, Monkton, Fallston, Jarrettsville, Bel Air, Havre de Grace and surrounds. That whole area has been in a screw zone for years and years now, storm after storm. 

[Ravens94]

Moving ENE

[Paleocene]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it's just bad luck exacerbated by small sample size.  We've been in a generally bad pattern for a long time, which means less snow chances.  When you reduce the number of snow events it increases variance and the chances of something like this happening if you get unlucky a few times.  Additionally we've been stuck in a nina like pacific base state, and that does increase the chances of sliders and storms that affect further southeast in our regions MORE wrt averages.  

My area for instance, dud REALLY well in good snowfall years like 1996, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2015.  Yes everyone did good...but up here got crazy high snowfall in those years...over 100" in 2010 and around 90" in 2014 for example.  We haven't had many of those "good" snowfall years lately for this area to clean up.  In bad years, we do tend to do better...but not as much better wrt to averages than in better years.  

WRT Baltimore, I think its just been bad luck...you missed better snowfall by like 10 miles in either direction several times recently.  I think over a longer sample size that will even out.  

Agreed. I moved to immediate DC metro in 2010 (post big storm winter). From 2010-2018, your area smoked our area every year. Since 2019, we've done better in a few storms. Just random chance @Maestrobjwa

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I’ve lucked out in the last 3 big ones. I think I jacked 2019.  But overall I’m at 50% of climo over the 2016-17 to 2023-24 period. It all evens out. But when you get fringed I know it’s painful. 

I know the last 3 winters I was at 43% of climo, I think for the whole post 2016 period I am at about 48% but that includes that crazy 2021 year where I got 50".  It's been bad up here, I think the handful of times I post those nice snow pics when it's just raining in DC gives a false impression its been good up here when its been even worse wrt averages than DC.  But I totally get it... everyone is focused on their backyards and in many of those years I still managed to get more snow than DC...but averages say I should be getting WAY more snow not just a little lol.  

[87storms]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=PBZ-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad

[CAPE]

Back to a steady light snow after a brief lull.

Went out and shoveled the front walk and cleared a path to the Jeep. Snow is pretty light. Easy work.

[Terrapinwx]

Closing in on 10” now. Wind is picking up off the water and drifts are beginning to form. Depending on how the evening goes with the ULL this could rival 2016 down this way


.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I know the last 3 winters I was at 43% of climo, I think for the whole post 2016 period I am at about 48% but that includes that crazy 2021 year where I got 50".  It's been bad up here, I think the handful of times I post those nice snow pics when it's just raining in DC gives a false impression its been good up here when its been even worse wrt averages than DC.  But I totally get it... everyone is focused on their backyards and in many of those years I still managed to get more snow than DC...but averages say I should be getting WAY more snow not just a little lol.  

Ya they are like we always win, but we don’t haha. Ya sure we may get a 3” snow when DC rains but doesn’t help when DC gets 8-10” and we get 1-3”. Whatever what can we do about it. South is a snow town now. 

[diatae]

Wind is starting to pick up and throwing in the occasional gust. Moderate snow still falling.

[87storms]

Just now, Terrapinwx said:

Closing in on 10” now. Wind is picking up off the water and drifts are beginning to form. Depending on how the evening goes with the ULL this could rival 2016 down this way


.

Colorado?

[diatae]

And my son would like to note that this snow is too dry for good snowball making, lol.

[CAPE]

Into another heavy band now. Living on the back edge here but seems to be redeveloping a bit.

[feloniousq]

No flake of any size in over an hour.  These mythical Winchester bands are sliding north and/or disappearing.

[Miss Pixee]

26/DP25

Not doing a whole lot right now. 6".

More treats from SE DC...

 

[LeesburgWx]

Getting under that Band over Loudoun. Hopefully things a band that sets up and holds. At 4” so far

[MN Transplant]

Fighting compaction at this point.  Not sure that I’ll pass 6” otg.

[AACOUNTYMD]

very unscientific. . . but looks like7.5  hasn't really stopped. . . still light snow.  keeps looking like the radar is going to shut off the snow, but just keeps coming. I'll take it.  In the Herald Harbor part of Crownsville. . . on the Severn

[LeesburgWx]

Moderate to heavy snow now under this band

[Interstate]

Driveway and sidewalks cleared... waiting for the Big Dog on Saturday

[nj2va]

Flake size increasing and rates picking back up.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Fighting compaction at this point.  Not sure that I’ll pass 6” otg.

Yeah, I've compacted down to 4" of cement. Odd thing is when I first went out with my kid, we couldn't make a snowball that held its shape. After some fzdz, I sent her back inside (she was cold) and did some shoveling. With 4" OTG after some sleet and fzdz, it felt more like shoveling 7 or 8 inches.

Or maybe I'm just getting old 

[Deck Pic]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know the last 3 winters I was at 43% of climo, I think for the whole post 2016 period I am at about 48% but that includes that crazy 2021 year where I got 50".  It's been bad up here, I think the handful of times I post those nice snow pics when it's just raining in DC gives a false impression its been good up here when its been even worse wrt averages than DC.  But I totally get it... everyone is focused on their backyards and in many of those years I still managed to get more snow than DC...but averages say I should be getting WAY more snow not just a little lol.  

My average over those winters is 8”.  Which is 50% of climo.  So we’re basically the same. You’ve just happened to go Aaron Judge in the high leverage events.  And of course we all want to jack the big events or overperform.  So I get it. But the idea that the “south” has done well is wrong 

[PWC Split]

25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So now we see if the rarely  productive transfer coastal does  something for DC 

Do we know where that transfer is taking place? How far south?

[vastateofmind]

Just now, nj2va said:

Flake size increasing and rates picking back up.

Oddly enough (for our corner of SE FfxCo), it's not really let up here since daybreak, vacillating between light to mod snow, and only had pingers in the 7-8am hour. Rates are picking back up again here.

[Jebman]

Pingers are a real punch right in the GUT. Now we hope and hope and hope and hope on the 2nd round. But some folks got super lucky and piled on snow.

But, sleet is like having a hot sister.