January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

up to a jaw-dropping total of 2.5".   Props to all the "you all always cash in up that way" posters. Six years of being wrong with that thought and counting...

It's probably my fault...because of my location on top of one of the highest points in east central MD right along the PA border I often do disproportionately well in very marginal events, like the 4" I got in November when even places right around me a few miles away barely got an inch!  This probably gives a false sense to the board that this area up here has done better than it has recently in general.  Only the very highest ridges up here have actually done ok, I feel really bad for places just south of me or in some of the valleys up here who have had it really bad recently.  They have not cashed in like me in the marginal temp storms and they have missed all the coastal or slider storms to the south.  The worst screw zone wrt averages in our region, which as a whole hasn't done well recently, has been that area.  

[SnowtoRain]

9" in Easton, currently heavy snow, 24.8

[clskinsfan]

Just now, mattie g said:

Yup. I'm a little bummed to be missing out on those.

You will have more come through in a couple hours. These bands out here are doing some work.

[steks43]

6.5" - 7" depending on the ruler and my poking.  26/25 and gently, very light snow.

 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Anyone that entrusts in the long range HRRR doesn't see what its capable of in the convective season. I've seen it wrong by a lot at hour 3

HRRR is .10 or so of qpf for the ULL. I guess we could grab another inch or so but I'm certainly not counting on it. HRRR was awful for northern MD.

Euro really nailed it the past 48 hours. Generally had my area between .3 and .4 qpf. Looks like that's going to be pretty accurate. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

You will have more come through in a couple hours. These bands out here are doing some work.

Glad to hear that. I’ve been watching those the last hour.

[IronTy]

31 minutes ago, hsq said:

Yeah! Easily. We had a smidge over 8 here in huntingtown a couple of hours back so I think 10 once this dies down is a safe bet. 

I think so.  Still dumping hard and at 9.5" on the deck.  

[B-Paq]

Straight up puking potato chips from the sky in Easton.  Easily over 1" per hour stuff.  Just got back from a joyride in the truck and it put down a fresh inch on the driveway in 40 minutes.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It's probably my fault...because of my location on top of one of the highest points in east central MD right along the PA border I often do disproportionately well in very marginal events, like the 4" I got in November when even places right around me a few miles away barely got an inch!  This probably gives a false sense to the board that this area up here has done better than it has recently in general.  Only the very highest ridges up here have actually done ok, I feel really bad for places just south of me or in some of the valleys up here who have had it really bad recently.  They have not cashed in like me in the marginal temp storms and they have missed all the coastal or slider storms to the south.  The worst screw zone wrt averages in our region, which as a whole hasn't done well recently, has been that area.  

You said it well, the corridor along 70 east of the Catoctins up through Westminster proper and across to say Hunt Valley and north have been the worst off relative to their averages. Even in my area, the November storm was rain/snow mix 3 miles from me, 1" a couple streets down, but 2.5" up here at 900ft. 

[Chris_B]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

HRRR is fed in part by radar trends.  Watch it start to look better once the remaining energy enters the region.

Calling for about 3" from the afternoon blast.  Probably cut that in half realistically.  

[midatlanticweather]

Liking the radar. More snow is coming down! Let's add some more! 

 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

You will have more come through in a couple hours. These bands out here are doing some work.

Just need them oriented towards me. I know we'll get at least some snow on the back end, but I'm always a little concerned about subsidence between bands and that kind of thing, so I'm a little jumpy.

As I'm typing this, a little enhancement just popped up on radar near me. Would love to see that expand/fill in...

[konksw]

New band setting up across NoVa into DC. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Looks like it’ll be all snow for the bulk of us. Remember when it was forecast to briefly transition to a mix?

[B-Paq]

2 minutes ago, Chris_B said:

Calling for about 3" from the afternoon blast.  

 

6 more on top of the 9+ already down would be bananas.  I'm skeptical, but hey LFG!

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's probably my fault...because of my location on top of one of the highest points in east central MD right along the PA border I often do disproportionately well in very marginal events, like the 4" I got in November when even places right around me a few miles away barely got an inch!  This probably gives a false sense to the board that this area up here has done better than it has recently in general.  Only the very highest ridges up here have actually done ok, I feel really bad for places just south of me or in some of the valleys up here who have had it really bad recently.  They have not cashed in like me in the marginal temp storms and they have missed all the coastal or slider storms to the south.  The worst screw zone wrt averages in our region, which as a whole hasn't done well recently, has been that area.  

12z Gfs says some N MD love from u/l low. Of course, I'm just a wee bit north.

 

[WhiteoutMD]

radar return south west of DC taking on a mor north movement and building  

[diatae]

Light snow now. Just measured 8". La Plata

[deer]

Radar says I'll be done with round 1 here in a bit. Triangle just to the south looks to get the last bands. Still coming down pretty nicely.

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Looks like it’ll be all snow for the bulk of us. Remember when it was forecast to briefly transition to a mix?

Definitely had some sleet mixing into the earlier bands from DC south, so that was not wrong fully. It just never was the extent the NAM had projected it to be 

[Deck Pic]

22 minutes ago, H2O said:

26.3/24  Measured 6" at 9:30.  Steady SN/Sleet since then and another .5 in the last hour

South and East is the new north and west 

[konksw]

1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

radar return south west of DC taking on a mor north movement and building  

Yeah looks like the dry slot is trying to fill in. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's probably my fault...because of my location on top of one of the highest points in east central MD right along the PA border I often do disproportionately well in very marginal events, like the 4" I got in November when even places right around me a few miles away barely got an inch!  This probably gives a false sense to the board that this area up here has done better than it has recently in general.  Only the very highest ridges up here have actually done ok, I feel really bad for places just south of me or in some of the valleys up here who have had it really bad recently.  They have not cashed in like me in the marginal temp storms and they have missed all the coastal or slider storms to the south.  The worst screw zone wrt averages in our region, which as a whole hasn't done well recently, has been that area.  

This. It has been an absolute squeeze job, and I'm trying to figure out why. It's like the climo has shifted or something so that we just don't do well enough in these west-east slider like systems...it's like it always favored south of me, and I don't ever remember another time where even I, not being as far north as you, got fringed this much. Ordinarily it's DC with temp/mixing issues...but since 2019 they haven't had that with these types of sytems. I will never trust a system like this again unless it shows mixing south of me. Heavy rates just don't get up here that way lately...smh

[psuhoffman]

But now that northern MD got fringed @Deck Pic doesn't get to have his trial 

And we should put to bed that "joke" we do get fringed up here a lot, DC has got more snow than this area in a singular event a handful of times just recently!  But it's true we won't get any sympathy because of all the times we get snow when they are just getting rain, and the fact that even in those years by the end of the season most of this area up here will end up with more snow...it just hasn't been as MUCH more as averages would say we should get recently.  But the fringe is real, it actualy does happen, and it is something to worry about up here when guidance has us on the northern edge.  We don't always win out in those situations and recently we've had some fails.  

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Chris_B said:

Calling for about 3" from the afternoon blast.  Probably cut that in half realistically.  

I feel confident that we'll get another 2-3" from round two.  That part is gonna swing through on a near perfect track.  Still a big chunk of the system left: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=12

[wawarriors4]

Right at 7.0” as of 10:50, that’s with sleet mixed in. 
 

Currently, huge Snow globs and 28 degrees.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Gfs says some N MD love from u/l low. Of course, I'm just a wee bit north.

 

Don't forget that is retro to 7am today, so it shows some QPF that has already fallen or was modeled to fall. 

[nw baltimore wx]

28 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Girlfriend measured 5” with measuring tape (lol) - guessing with compaction my spot on H & 1st NW in DC might’ve hit 6”. Tricky to say. 

Dude, I love you, but did you read this???

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This. It has been an absolute squeeze job, and I'm trying to figure out why. It's like the climo has shifted or something so that we just don't do well enough in these west-east slider like systems...it's like it always favored south of me, and I don't ever remember another time where even I, not being as far north as you, got fringed this much. Ordinarily it's DC with temp/mixing issues...but since 2019 they haven't had that with these types of sytems. I will never trust a system like this again unless it shows mixing south of me. Heavy rates just don't get up here that way lately...smh

The adage really is true, you want to ride the mix line a bit and then use your geography to your advantage. When its all snow 50-100 miles south of you, theres the distinct chance you're caught in subsidence or lighter rates.

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But now that northern MD got fringed @Deck Pic doesn't get to have his trial 

Yeah. Let’s see what happens later I may have to issue a mea culpa.