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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Mesoanalysis still has the best 85H FGEN well to the south closer to CHO and points southwest. This will migrate northeastward over the next several hours with the best forcing likely positioned in that circle above the arrows. This is the area that could see a steady 1-2"/hr rate period that will last 3-6 hrs before it moves off to the east and that's when the rates will subside before the next round comes through later today. By then, many inside that circle will be at 6-12" and then we wait for the bonus snow with the vort pass to our south. Good times here y'all with the best still to come! 

image.thumb.png.65ca0fd05ea452231f3eef1bfb8c0387.png

Cannot wait. Any chance of thundersnow with this forcing or no?

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Cannot wait. Any chance of thundersnow with this forcing or no?

Not likely with this part. The best chance, albeit pretty small will be with the vort pass later today. More dynamic in nature. That will feature larger dendrites that carry more appreciable ratios. If we can somehow luck into that feature closing off south of us for even a few hours, there will be some very happy people in this sub-forum, if they aren't already! 

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Mesoanalysis still has the best 85H FGEN well to the south closer to CHO and points southwest. This will migrate northeastward over the next several hours with the best forcing likely positioned in that circle above the arrows. This is the area that could see a steady 1-2"/hr rate period that will last 3-6 hrs before it moves off to the east and that's when the rates will subside before the next round comes through later today. By then, many inside that circle will be at 6-12" and then we wait for the bonus snow with the vort pass to our south. Good times here y'all with the best still to come! 

image.thumb.png.65ca0fd05ea452231f3eef1bfb8c0387.png

Nice I finally get to be inside somebody's circle :snowing:

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2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thanks Matt. 5-7 is my estimate. Would be great to get 6 inches would be our biggest storm here since the Blizzard of 2016. Good luck in your area as well. 

Mod Snow, 25 degrees and little over an inch so far in Dover, DE. Most roads now covered.

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Not likely with this part. The best chance, albeit pretty small will be with the vort pass later today. More dynamic in nature. That will feature larger dendrites that carry more appreciable ratios. If we can somehow luck into that feature closing off south of us for even a few hours, there will be some very happy people in this sub-forum, if they aren't already! 

I hope with all my heart that that feature closes off to the south for about twelve hours. I want you guys to get totally obliterated by torrential snows!

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Van Ness: 3.4" -- 0.8" in the last hour.

My IMBY thoughts: 

5 AM - 7 AM: Should be 1.5-2" additional, based off the HRRR. Possible for upside if the returns to the W/SW materialize and/or flake type improves.

7 AM - 12 PM: ~4", as fronto lifts NE and ratios improve 

IMO, targeting 8-9" on the ground from round 1 in DC.

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2 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Van Ness: 3.4" -- 0.8" in the last hour.

My IMBY thoughts: 

5 AM - 7 AM: Should be 1.5-2" additional, based off the HRRR. Possible for upside if the returns to the W/SW materialize and/or flake type improves.

7 AM - 12 PM: ~4", as fronto lifts NE and ratios improve 

IMO, targeting 8-9" from round 1 in DC.

Prob gonna take a lull nap around 9.  Then be ready for round 2

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6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Steady dumping cold smoke. It looks like 4"+. 

It's been just pouring snow out our way. You can even see the flakes fall in the dark out the window it's coming down so steady. I measured 1.2" in a hour last ob. If this keeps up, we'll be over 10" by storms end, no question. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

It's been just pouring snow out our way. You can even see the flakes fall in the dark out the window it's coming down so steady. I measured 1.2" in a hour last ob. If this keeps up, we'll be over 10" by storms end, no question. 

i think that initial thump that exceeded expectations really set us up well. now FGEN is coming in and much of the area is eyeing down 1.25-2"/hr rates. sleet line coming north should also give us some heavy snow with better flake size i imagine 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's been just pouring snow out our way. You can even see the flakes fall in the dark out the window it's coming down so steady. I measured 1.2" in a hour last ob. If this keeps up, we'll be over 10" by storms end, no question. 

I'm getting that same effect looking out the window. You don't even need a light. It seems like it's increasing still. It's getting wild out there. 

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