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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

even though correlation coefficient clearly indicates mix?  Not saying that is determinative.  Also didnt mean to imply sleet for me and you  The mix line is hitting a wall safely south of us.   

looks sleety to my untrained eye.

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3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

yeah...I mean it's not really relevant to those of us in immediate DC metro.  I was just making the point that deep yellows might not be deep yellows when they get here as all snow.

Okay, what about the yellow out west by Winchester down to Front Royal moving our way?

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27 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

DC crew repping hard overnight as usual while the simple country folk outside the beltway get their beauty rest

DC statehood!!

LOL there's been a truck sitting in the parking lot up the street for an hour and a half with all the pretty lights flashing. Probably gonna snooze all comfy with some coffee and doughnuts until sunrise. Gotta wait for it to pile up!

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

When do you think the heaviest bands setup out near Reston?

I'd say within the next few hours is when we'll hit the heaviest part for you guys. I'm a little later and linger longer out my way. Sweet spot right now is just to the east of you which has been well modeled by CAMs thus far. Still a solid storm for your area for sure. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I'd say within the next few hours is when we'll hit the heaviest part for you guys. I'm a little later and linger longer out my way. Sweet spot right now is just to the east of you which has been well modeled by CAMs thus far. Still a solid storm for your area for sure. 

My bar right now is to beat the Jan 3rd storms 7.4 inches which seems pretty likely at this point! Would be nice to try and get over 10+ to make it the biggest storm since 2016

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Mesoanalysis still has the best 85H FGEN well to the south closer to CHO and points southwest. This will migrate northeastward over the next several hours with the best forcing likely positioned in that circle above the arrows. This is the area that could see a steady 1-2"/hr rate period that will last 3-6 hrs before it moves off to the east and that's when the rates will subside before the next round comes through later today. By then, many inside that circle will be at 6-12" and then we wait for the bonus snow with the vort pass to our south. Good times here y'all with the best still to come! 

image.thumb.png.65ca0fd05ea452231f3eef1bfb8c0387.png

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