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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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I have to say I’m a bit disappointed in the flake quality. Not nearly supersaturated enough upstairs to get the dendritic growth. This is mostly looking like plates. The kuchera stan’s are gonna get a surprise when they stick their ruler in for this part of the storm. 8:1 to 11:1

Edit: It should get better when we get to the firehose stage of the storm in 4-6hrs from now.

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Enjoy the snow, everyone. It will soon become heavy and pile up. Take walks, dig snow, simply run for joy! That wind will be making those aggregates fly right past the streetlights! Guzzle IPAs and stouts and become fully engaged with the storm! This is going to be really fun! If it was me over in the Mid Atlantic, I'd be up. all. night. No way I'd miss a single flake of snow!

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4 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I have to say I’m a bit disappointed in the flake quality. Not nearly supersaturated enough upstairs to get the dendritic growth. This is mostly looking like plates. The kuchera stan’s are gonna get a surprise when they stick their ruler in for this part of the storm. 8:1 to 11:1

The modeled Kuchera ratio for this part of the storm is 8-10:1 with 12:1 all the way into Carroll County. It doesn't improve until after 10z when the better forcing arrives, and even then 9-10:1 for DC and 10-11:1 for an average unless under better banding. 12-15:1 for areas along and north of I-70. Kuchera is doing fine so far and the model algorithm snow from the HRRR is also fine. I don't see anything wrong the forecast right now. 

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5 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I have to say I’m a bit disappointed in the flake quality. Not nearly supersaturated enough upstairs to get the dendritic growth. This is mostly looking like plates. The kuchera stan’s are gonna get a surprise when they stick their ruler in for this part of the storm. 8:1 to 11:1

We have had that flake quality for about 3 hours and have managed an accumulation of 1.5 inches so far. Some bigger flakes are starting to mix in now.

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2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Went out for a walk around 12:25 in Parkville because people not far west of here were reporting flurries. It has been nearly 1.5 hours, and as far as I've seen, the only flake out here, is me

And immediately after sending that, it starts LOL

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Snow is a steady light variety but picking up in intensity slowly. Everything is completely covered with a solid coating. Storm just begun too. Great start with the heavier returns still off to the southwest with a ways to go. 

Radar looks beefy to the WSW!

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