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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just wondering if this apparent dry area on radar is actually real or just the result of the radar. I’m aware there’s sometimes some issues looking southwest from sterling 

 

Look at KDOX radar. It’s because of beam altitude. Snow is falling but not reaching the ground. So the closer to the radar you lose returns.

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4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just wondering if this apparent dry area on radar is actually real or just the result of the radar. I’m aware there’s sometimes some issues looking southwest from sterling 

IMG_8984.png

there's definitely some dry air. shouldnt last too long once you get steady returns over you.

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7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just wondering if this apparent dry area on radar is actually real or just the result of the radar. I’m aware there’s sometimes some issues looking southwest from sterling 

<snip>

lol, that's always been there, it's fine. Its beam blockage of the radar itself from Bull Run Mountain.

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26 minutes ago, mappy said:

To be fair, each of the warnings say “isolated” and “if heavy banding sets up”. 

True! Mainly the totals aspect. Not often we see 16" on a WSW. Handful every 4-8 years. Good luck up there in Northern Baltimore Co. I'm hoping a nice band setups up and the northern tier cashes and everyone gets the goods! 

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1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

lol, that's always been there, it's fine. Its beam blockage of the radar itself from Bull Run Mountain.

Yes, there is a HUGE block on Blacksburg's radar to the north, going thru Botetrout, eastern Alleghany and Bath counties. When a W to E light rain or snow event happens you can watch the echo's go thru, disappear, then reappear lol

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Just went on a Jebwalk and have an overwhelming warmth and happiness settling in....or it might just be the Old Grandad bourbon, whatever, doesn't matter. About one inch near the CHO airport in northern Albemarle county. Trust me folks, it's coming your way. It's been a long time and I want to thank the amazing posters in this forum. Btw, can we give an honorary award to @Jebman for being THE most awesome mid Atlantic snow cheerleader ever?

Screenshot_20250105-223646.png

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26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How unusual is it to see that kind of a range in a WSW? 5-10" with isolated 16 inches (whoa) is awesome but sounds crazy at the same time (like saying 5-15", lol)

That was quite a jump for the max, but I think that's a case of the potential rates within banding for this one. This has a shot for 2-3"/hr in a few bands during the height of the FGEN regime. That could easily take a total and take it way above the 75th percentile, which is likely what the range was created by (1st and 3rd quartile outcomes). 

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First mesoscale discussion of the event here - affects mountains in WV and Garrett County.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0017.html

  Valid 060339Z - 060745Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow in the vicinity of Wilmington, OH will spread
   eastward into West Virginia tonight. Snowfall rates around 1 inch
   per hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong ascent from a potent 850 mb jet as well as an
   approaching shortwave trough will promote efficient dendritic growth
   and snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour tonight. Recent
   observation from Lebanon, OH in conjunction with KILN radar data
   suggest moderate snow with embedded heavier pockets is occurring.
   Snowfall is primarily focused north of the Ohio River (per KILN
   dual-pol data) and the expectation is for that to continue. These
   heavier snowfall rates will eventually shift eastward into West
   Virginia.
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