Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 11:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:22 PM 25 minutes ago, bncho said: How are they more uncertain? We're closer to the event, now. Here you go, kid. It's kind of fun to play around with. I think you'll find some of the products are more granular. There is even a direct point prediction (which I hope is low for me lol) This is their front page headline product. Enjoy!. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Sunday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:23 PM everything really coming together for you guys to get smoked.. congrats and enjoy it! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Sunday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:23 PM Just measured 0.75" in Lynchburg. Steady light/moderate snow with decent size flakes. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:24 PM Latest hrrr just gave us north tier peeps some more love than previous runs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That area will do better than what the 10:1 amounts show for sure. I've never forecasted ratios using kuchie. DC Climo is 11.5:1. You look at the setup, column, snow growth, other meso shit etc, and figure it out. Going higher than 14:1 in DC is risky for me. The titanic peaks of Carroll County it may differ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Here you go, kid. It's kind of fun to play around with. I think you'll find some of the products are more granular. There is even a direct point prediction (which I hope is low for me lol) This is their front page headline product. Enjoy!. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter I know we’re in chips fall mode now but Euro dropped 0.9” QPF in DC on the 18z. 15 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I've never forecasted ratios using kuchie. DC Climo is 11.5:1. You look at the setup, column, snow growth, other meso shit etc, and figure it out. Going higher than 14:1 in DC is risky for me. The titanic peaks of Carroll County it may differ I was noticing a decent ribbon of fronto in nrn MD. I know yesterday I mentioned that area jacking, but I think they’ll do very well. Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if they did. DC will have 10:1 or perhaps a little lower for a time, mostly due to snow growth I think. When the ULL comes through it will be more classic dendies falling for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I've never forecasted ratios using kuchie. DC Climo is 11.5:1. You look at the setup, column, snow growth, other meso shit etc, and figure it out. Going higher than 14:1 in DC is risky for me. The titanic peaks of Carroll County it may differ Agree, have to know your climo. When I lived in NJ and NVA I used 10:1 most times. Up here I actually avg 15:1 or higher many storms if it’s cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:32 PM 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I know we’re in chips fall mode now but Euro dropped 0.9” QPF in DC on the 18z. Can start to see banding on euro. Harrisburg jumped up like 3” on this run. This is going to be interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM @MillvilleWx 8-12 for ANP? Can’t really argue with NWS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:36 PM 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I know we’re in chips fall mode now but Euro dropped 0.9” QPF in DC on the 18z. yup. at this point the way I forecast for MBY for a storm like this, here's my final 1) Take 18z Euro QPF (around 0.85") 2) Multiply by 0.85 (coincidence) 3) Multiply by 12 Answer - 8.7" Final forecast for MBY 8-10" Enjoy the snow everyone. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted Sunday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:36 PM 33/6DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Sunday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:37 PM Just now, Deck Pic said: yup. at this point the way I forecast for MBY for a storm like this, here's my final 1) Take 18z Euro QPF (around 0.85") 2) Multiply by 0.85 (coincidence) 3) Multiply by 12 Answer - 8.7" Final forecast for MBY 8-10" Enjoy the snow everyone. Hoping my trash can lids can verify your call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Sunday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:39 PM 30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I hadn't winterized the mower yet so I went out, picked up sticks, and cut the grass/vacuumed up leaves until it ran out of gas. Had to eventually wrap a strap on the safety bar because the dang thing kept running. Yard is ready though! I’ve never winterized anything. I live in Virginia, so what’s the point? Expecting snow to start in the next 3-4 hours. Cold smoke. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:40 PM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agree, have to know your climo. When I lived in NJ and NVA I used 10:1 most times. Up here I actually avg 15:1 or higher many storms if it’s cold. Yep. Same out here. If I actually do get .9 or more qpf 15 is not out of the question imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted Sunday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:41 PM Perhaps its been discussed already but what are the odds of some thundersnow with some of this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted Sunday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:41 PM Finally some flakes flying here 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:41 PM 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was noticing a decent ribbon of fronto in nrn MD. I know yesterday I mentioned that area jacking, but I think they’ll do very well. Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if they did. DC will have 10:1 or perhaps a little lower for a time, mostly due to snow growth I think. When the ULL comes through it will be more classic dendies falling for sure. I doubt I have more than 0.25"/hr snow for a few hours tomorrow. But I won't be wasting much liquid doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM Just measured 2" on the money at 6:30 pm. Still snowing pretty good. 24.6/21.1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Can start to see banding on euro. Harrisburg jumped up like 3” on this run. This is going to be interesting. We can't seem to get away from that 5" +/- .5, on most models. Frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:43 PM 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Hoping my trash can lids can verify your call haha...you're good. I'd probably go 9.5" for me and you . In fact I will. Good luck, Andrew. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:44 PM 2 minutes ago, jonjon said: Finally some flakes flying here JonJon about to get smashed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:45 PM Didn't see this posted Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 532 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ053>057-501-502- 505-506-526-527-060500- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 532 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...Heavy Snow and Hazardous Travel Across the Baltimore/Washington Metro Area Monday Morning... Be prepared for hazardous travel conditions Monday morning. Heavy snow at times will move across the metro areas Monday morning, most likely between 4 and 10 AM. Rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible, which can make travel nearly impossible at times or at least very dangerous. It is highly recommended to delay any travel that is not necessary. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 11:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:46 PM 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: haha...you're good. I'd probably go 9.5" for me and you . In fact I will. Good luck, Andrew. Good luck Matt. I hope we all see 8"+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: JonJon about to get smashed. The Wisp cams are the best for seeing whats going on up there... I'm shocked they still have the snowmakers on https://www.wispresort.com/mountain-report-cams/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: Didn't see this posted Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 532 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ053>057-501-502- 505-506-526-527-060500- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 532 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...Heavy Snow and Hazardous Travel Across the Baltimore/Washington Metro Area Monday Morning... Be prepared for hazardous travel conditions Monday morning. Heavy snow at times will move across the metro areas Monday morning, most likely between 4 and 10 AM. Rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible, which can make travel nearly impossible at times or at least very dangerous. It is highly recommended to delay any travel that is not necessary. Please tighten up, sir. 75 minutes is shameful for you. I saw it like 45 minutes ago. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM 20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Latest hrrr just gave us north tier peeps some more love than previous runs. I've been mostly mia this afternoon, but just peaked at the HRRR and Nam...and I'm definitely a little more enthusiastic for mby than I was earlier. That's pretty healthy vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Ive got filtered moon shining through the clouds. Looks like we've got a while before any snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Just now, Deck Pic said: Please tighten up, sir. 75 minutes is shameful for you. I saw it like 45 minutes ago. I apologize sir. I was sleeping hoping to get tonight off from work and I did. It won't happen again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:49 PM 16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Can start to see banding on euro. Harrisburg jumped up like 3” on this run. This is going to be interesting. 24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Latest hrrr just gave us north tier peeps some more love than previous runs. If the latest run isn’t hiccup it’s starting to look like my snow map lol. There would be another 1-3” after this. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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