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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's not a mix

I don’t think we mix tomorrow, but if I’m wrong and we do it’s not going to be consequential.  This isn’t a warm nose that’s gonna blast through and cut our overrunning in half, it’s during the lull/dry slot and temps will be 26 in dc so we don’t have to worry about melting.  Part 1 and 2 are gonna be clean I think in dc proper. 

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39 minutes ago, B-Paq said:

Mt. Holly finally updated:

StormTotalSnow.jpg

Interesting snippet from their afternoon AFD-

As far as the storm, It is currently located near Arkansas with banded F-Gen driven heavy snow located north and east of its center towards the midwestern states. In terms of overall trends in the forecast as far as how it will affect the mid Atlantic, there continue to be some differences in our forecast guidance regarding the exact track and evolution of system. Generally speaking, global guidance weakens the banding a lot more as it approaches the area and has heavier precip amounts farther south compared to the Hi-res guidance. Our forecast leans more towards the higher QPF of the hi-res guidance but has it shifted slightly south a little more towards the Global guidance. This is based on overall trends and reports from how the system is evolving upstream.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Interesting snippet from their afternoon AFD-

As far as the storm, It is currently located near Arkansas with banded F-Gen driven heavy snow located north and east of its center towards the midwestern states. In terms of overall trends in the forecast as far as how it will affect the mid Atlantic, there continue to be some differences in our forecast guidance regarding the exact track and evolution of system. Generally speaking, global guidance weakens the banding a lot more as it approaches the area and has heavier precip amounts farther south compared to the Hi-res guidance. Our forecast leans more towards the higher QPF of the hi-res guidance but has it shifted slightly south a little more towards the Global guidance. This is based on overall trends and reports from how the system is evolving upstream.

I ain't reading allat.
Can somebody summarize for me and my dumbass?

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Just now, J.Mike said:

Snow brings out the kid in me. It must be that five year-old boy that’s still lingers – the excitement and anticipation – not unlike Christmas Eve. Good luck everybody enjoy your Jebwalks. 

Yes - a storm like this with zero p-type worries, models locked in and getting better up to game time is what this forum is built on... 

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2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Well y’all, it’s finally here. We’ve been tracking this thing down for over 10 days and it all comes down to this. A small shoutout to NWP for being able to pick up on a threat this far out with n/s energy playing a role in it all. 
 

Currently 32/9 at my place. If you’re in the lowlands of AA county, this one is for us. The 25th percentile on the NBM as of early this morning for DCA/Annapolis/Crofton/Bowie/ @usedtobe hoods are ~7” and I don’t see that waver. My forecast for Annapolis and my area is 7-12” w/ local to 14” 

DC area: 6-10” w/ local to 12” 

Baltimore: 5-9” w/ local to 10” 

WV Panhandle: 5-10” w/ local to 11”

NoVA north of EZF: 6-12”

EZF south: 3-6” w/ some sleet

Area between Frederick-Baltimore-Silver Spring-Poolesville: 6-10” w/ local to 12”

Catoctins: 7-12” 

Rt15 corridor down to I-66 VA: 6-12”

West of Rt15 in MD: 5-10”

Western MD: 8-14” 

North of I-70 between Frederick and Baltimore: 5-8” w/ local to 10” (Trickiest area due to confluence signature to the north) 

Far Southern PA: 3-7” w/ local to 8” near the M/D plausible. Less further north you go. 
 

Eastern Shore North of Rt50 in MD ( @CAPE country): 5-9” w/ local to 10” 

Eastern Shore along and South of Rt50 until south of St Mary’s Co latitude: 4-8” w/ local to 10”

Delaware North of Dover: 4-8” w/ local to 10” 

Delaware South of Dover: 5-10” w/ local to 12” 

Jackpot Zone between MD32 down to Calvert County and over to Sussex Co DE: Storm max of 14” 

Tried my best on these and hopefully I’m in the ballpark. Woke up from my night shift slumber not long ago and ready to stay up the next 20-24 hrs. I will be working telework tonight and tomorrow night for safety reasons. Winter is here, and judging by the model guidance…it ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Enjoy everyone!! :sled:

After some assessment, no major changes to my forecast. I do feel a secondary jack across NW MoCo, Western HoCo could occur when looking closely, but I’m gonna let chips fall. It’s gonna snow and snow heavily. I still can’t believe my luck where I’m at. Didn’t think my 16ft elevation would be in this spot, but here we are! 
 

Im so stoked y’all. I’ll be up all night for my WFM shift and then staying up till about 9/10am for the peak before some sleep during the lull. 
 

I’ll be here all night. Let’s rock! 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

After some assessment, no major changes to my forecast. I do feel a secondary jack across NW MoCo, Western HoCo could occur when looking closely, but I’m gonna let chips fall. It’s gonna snow and snow heavily. I still can’t believe my luck where I’m at. Didn’t think my 16ft elevation would be in this spot, but here we are! 
 

Im so stoked y’all. I’ll be up all night for my WFM shift and then staying up till about 9/10am for the peak before some sleep during the lull. 
 

I’ll be here all night. Let’s rock! 

Never bet against Parr's Ridge.

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