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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You might be able to get away with it, but honestly, it's probably a good idea to re-season a few times a year, so what better way to kick off 2025 Blackstone season with a fresh seasoning of bacon or good beef tallow. I'd say this is a perfect excuse to do it :)

Sounds like a good plan. I prefer to grill my steaks year round vs skillet cooking inside. Also had a regular grill out there, but that was retired. May want another since I get a different steak experience from the blackstone. Come break in the grill season and check out the view this spring!

Weather related, northern tier folks got caught in subsidence between the h7 fronto that ended up in central & NPA and that h85 near DC/NoVA. Kind of poor growth for this area, then a little love on the back end. Just about 4” going to take a few measurements in a bit. 

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10PM 4.0 measured in Havre de Grace, and I didn’t have to slant-stick. I was having a moral struggle for the past hour on how I could live with lying about the measurement. Turns out I didn’t have to.

Honestly, it was probably a bit more since the wind is really going now. My snow board was accumulating but my other 2 measuring spots were obliterated.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea if the initial push was better, then DCA would've had a legit shot at 10", IMO.

It seemed like accumulation shut off for a good part of Nova post 6-7am which really hurt us. If anything I remember being up from 2:30am onwards and at first the rates were .8 inch per hour and we were ahead of schedule but then the heaviest stuff never came north. 

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One of the larger discrepancies I noticed was the Kuchera numbers from some of the CAMs were much higher than that of the GFS, HRRR, and FV3 CAM which lead to inflated totals in the forecast and drove up probabilities in the NBM and probabilistic tools. When I assessed the HRRR Kuchera ratios, they started coming into line about 6 hrs prior to the event with lower ratios fine tuned compared to earlier runs with those very high totals. The parent RAP did not adjust, thus the numbers were inflated. One of the things I got caught up in is I didn't take those considerations into account with my initial forecast, and I didn't adjust enough for the stronger subsidence regime that would be between the 85H and 7H FGEN alignment. That's partly why my forecast busted in some areas, so I apologize for being a bit inflated, especially in the northern tier of the sub-forum. 

I strive for excellence since I know many look into my forecasts for expectation and potential decision making. I'll try to be a little more thorough next time and perhaps a little less aggressive away from the means for a setup of this caliber. Sometimes you have to pick and chose when to be more aggressive than guidance and this probably wasn't one of those times. 

I'm glad many here got 5+" and were able to enjoy a good ole fashioned Mid Atlantic snowstorm. Hopefully many in here can enjoy another this weekend. Fingers crossed! 

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Just got in from an epic jebwalk in that band and I just kept saying “this is what its all about” while just looking up into the sky as the dendrites were smacking me on my face.

Went out again with the pup and couldn’t help but revel in it. It was simply glorious.

I’m going to go with 8.5” total for the storm, with this evening’s snow being the best part of it!

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