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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Problem today imo was the DGZ was so high so you couldn't get proper lift in there, and in the DGZ the winds were raging so most of ur flakes were needles and it lowered ratios, thats why although it was a dry snow wasn't accumulating that well until the end of the frontend(4-8a) when you got much better flake production

image.thumb.png.1009f63f763fd04db488084e4f654d9d.png

the backside piece should be much better - DGZ is lower to where you can get proper lift within it, moving away from WAA precip so no warm nose worries, and the winds in the DGZ calm down a lot. you won't get the very heavy rates we saw earlier today but it will be nicer snow and have more overpreformer potential imo, probably why ur seeing NWS go more bullish w/ the rest of the storm

Yea, every model I've had time to look at so far this morning shows a 2-10pm window this afternoon for some resurgence of lift from the ULL for the majority of Central MD.  I'm all in on that part.  Daytime snow > nighttime snow.

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Well the H7 stuff occurring where it would make sense..well north where models had little precip. Nice to see meteorology over modelogy. 

I did think some of that would sneak into nrn areas yesterday, but sort of in between forcing there. Good news is it should fill in a bit after lunch I think. 

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29 minutes ago, D-Train said:


Not far from you. About the same. Kinda disappointed, tbh.

Went for a Jebwalk at 6:30 as the snow turned to sleet.

Pup still loved it.

Hoping for an over performing Part II.

Definitely underwhelmed. Maybe we get lucky later on. Anyway if I just see snow falling I’m happy. I also have a park in front of the house so I get to see a parade of dogs!

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3 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Well the back edge is in Prince William County

In ull's we trust.  It's gonna backfill.  Does this almost every storm and used to make me punt too early when I first started this hobby...being next to an ocean has its perks.

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3 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Well the back edge is in Prince William County

Not even close. Warm air advection snow is ending and we're about to transition to more cellular snow until the upper energy passes through this afternoon. I remain cautiously optimistic about the back end potential giving a fresh 1" - 3".

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not even close. Warm air advection snow is ending and we're about to transition to more cellular snow until the upper energy passes through this afternoon. I remain cautiously optimistic about the back end potential giving a fresh 1" - 3".

i was referring to the WAA

every single piece of guidance had additional accumulations from the WAA after 7 AM for the metros-- often 4"+

there was basically nothing, ~0.5-1"

 

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Just now, T. August said:

This is strictly imby, but I can’t recall a time when the backend stuff worked out in the last 10 years. Maybe Feb 2014? I think there was an inch or 2 from that.

It went on for like a day in Jan 2019. 

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