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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Solid 1.5" before a lull. Precip on the doorstep again but I doubt it will be snow. Temps bouncing between 29-30 so frozen will continue at least.

Hope y'all get hammered and schools are out for a week. Good times 

The weenie in me hopes the same. My bank account is on life support though, kinda need Fairfax to be open again soon lol.

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38 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Correct. The models had this pretty well outlayed. Euro especially. Those wishing for a 9pm start time were in for a disappointment.

Totally agree on the cold to start! Rather have instant stickage than waiting for rates to overcome.

Yeah. I wasn't expecting anything for a while yet. This will be a case things moisten up, start out light and then begin to pick up in earnest once the LLJ cranks into Central VA and the 85H FGEN advances north. I don't think some realize the type of wall that is approaching. Our best ascent is still way to the south. Hi-res hasn't wavered one bit. The only change, and was expected was the tightening of the northern gradient from the confluent area to the north. That's why the maxima is showing up where it is and there are secondary mini-maxes to the south of the primary confluence where the convergence of 7H FGEN and the orographic enhancements north of I-70 will help those areas despite the lower QPF output. 

Ratios will likely be 12-15:1 on average for those zones. 10-12:1 across the district and locally higher pending positioning in bands from the 85H FGEN. That area seems to lie between I-70 down to just north of I-66 and points east. One interesting note is the primary spot to be with this could end of being a place like Easton or Cambridge, MD over into Sussex Co. DE. That area is right in the crush zone, imo. This is going to be a nice storm. I know it's dry, but it'll be fine. Wet bulbs into the low to mid-20s for many in here. Snow will fall and it will stick instantly. Let's enjoy it!! :sled:

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It's already been stated by the smart people here, but LWX mentions the dry air in the latest disco. Snippet below. 

 

 THE ONSET OF SNOW HAS BEEN  
SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY THE AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 250 MB. THIS  
IS SHOWN QUITE WELL IN THE 00Z IAD SOUNDING, GENERALLY BETWEEN  
THE SURFACE AND 750-MB, WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW/MID RH  
OF 20-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE ELEVATED CORE OF PRECIPITATION  
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LAYER BELOW THROUGH  
EVAPORATION AND WET-BULBING PROCESSES. EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE  
AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ONCE RESIDUAL DRY AIR IS  
ERODED.  

 

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I can't get my weather readings done, or any of my AI Prompts, or anything else done. I am fully engrossed, and I am losing the Battle of the Blizzard of 2025. I am sinking fast without a trace. This is going to be a fascinating and very fun, eminently ENJOYABLE meteorological phenomenon, even for enthusiasts like me located well over 1,300 miles away to the west southwest.

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