January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs

[IronTy]

We are ready to rock here!  Waited to the last minute to mount the plow and add air to the tires so I didn't jinx the storm. 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

33/7, cloudy.  Where is my snow.  and lol a DCA being 37

Likely they will report a high of 40 

[Buddy1987]

35/7 flurries just started. Nice to see @Discis getting it good down his way!

[PWC Split]

34/4 Haymarket with cloud cover - 1:35 pm

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Heh. I would like to think curmudgeonly resignation...but...yes, if it goes like that, I will be most uncivil for upcoming threats when people from the repeatedly snowy south claim we always cash in up this way.  Six years waiting for a warning level snow and counting. Can we get a  legit 5 plus inches here? Sure hope so! Fingers corssed. 

I think you're getting 5 plus. Hopefully more. Good news is we're not getting shut out. 

[87storms]

may just be hopecasting but I can see the 500 mbar confluence slowly lifting N and becoming slightly more oriented WNW - ESE instead of NW - SE. 

I’ve been diligently tracking the Coriolis index the last few days.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

35/7 flurries just started. Nice to see @Discis getting it good down his way!

Where

[aldie 22]

My sister in southern Ohio after 30 minutes...this is her bird cam. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Im crossing all the digits for you! 

Further. Pool, a large concrete walkway, plants in stone, then station once grass starts.

Yeah, the neighbors pool is 8ft away from my station.  And has a dark green tarp on it. I’m gonna move it this week and see if there’s a difference 

[Random Chaos]

19 minutes ago, GATECH said:

I used to have my old Vantage pro next to the pool, it ran warmer for sure, especially in may when I would crank the pool heat to 90!

My Vantage Pro is about 15 feet above the Chesapeake Bay at the end of 100ft pier. Never close to any inland sensor.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Most reputable models get the 4 inch line up to York. 6 inches up to the MD line is still in play. The cutoff will be sharp but I don't think it will be as severe as the examples PSU gave.

But if we want to max our potential we actually want that kind of gradient. Because what causes that is the combination of the h7 fgen and the moisture transport hitting the wall of confluence which adds even more convergence can create a really a good band.   That’s how you get those surprise 6-8 sometimes even more, bands on the northern edge. But when that happens it’s going to be banked up against the fringe and the combination of confluence and subsidence will create a really sharp cutoff. Places just 10 miles north of where the 6-12” band set up in PA last Feb got 1”.  If we want any shot at 6”+ we want that!  But we want the band to be over us and the cutoff in PA. That’s all.   If that banding doesn’t develop or stays weak, and there are times that does happen if the mid level forcing is weak or too disconnected from the best moisture transport, then there wouldn’t be a sharp cutoff. But in that case I think we can kiss anything more than about 4” goodbye bc that h8 fgen band is not making it up here and the subsidence north of that might even hurt us if it gets close, and with a more gradual taper we’re probably in a 2-5” zone north to south across Carroll county.  

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

I think my 6-8” from yesterday may be a touch high, but who knows for all the reasons being discussed. I told the mom group chat  (all southern York county residents) that there will be a gradient from a lot to very little somewhere along, north, or south of the PA line. lol

Yeah I was thinking Frederick/Westminster area jack as if this morning but might be south. We’ll see. Certainly better ratios up that way. 

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Where

Blacksburg/Roanoke

[nw baltimore wx]

For cocorahs users, don't forget to take the top and inner tube out of the gauge today.

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was thinking Frederick/Westminster area jack as if this morning but might be south. We’ll see. Certainly better ratios up that way. 

They always jack compared to us around the DC beltway. However, we have won in a few rare instances like Jan 2019 I think.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

They always jack compared to us around the DC beltway. However, we have won in a few rare instances like Jan 2019 I think.

Tomorrow might be cold enough that the advantage of being north isn’t as important.  If it’s like 33 in dc and 27 in Frederick it matters a lot.  But it looks like mid 20s everywhere tomorrow. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

They always jack compared to us around the DC beltway. However, we have won in a few rare instances like Jan 2019 I think.

Yeah I’d still watch that area for a sneaky band. 

[HighStakes]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But if we want to max our potential we actually want that kind of gradient. Because what causes that is the combination of the h7 fgen and the moisture transport hitting the wall of confluence which adds even more convergence can create a really a good band.   That’s how you get those surprise 6-8 sometimes even more, bands on the northern edge. But when that happens it’s going to be banked up against the fringe and the combination of confluence and subsidence will create a really sharp cutoff. Places just 10 miles north of where the 6-12” band set up in PA last Feb got 1”.  If we want any shot at 6”+ we want that!  But we want the band to be over us and the cutoff in PA. That’s all.   If that banding doesn’t develop or stays weak, and there are times that does happen if the mid level forcing is weak or too disconnected from the best moisture transport, then there wouldn’t be a sharp cutoff. But in that case I think we can kiss anything more than about 4” goodbye bc that h8 fgen band is not making it up here and the subsidence north of that might even hurt us if it gets close, and with a more gradual taper we’re probably in a 2-5” zone north to south across Carroll county.  

I hear ya! I guess we'll find out in about 12 hours. I really was hoping the back end would've improved. Unfortunately it's looks unimpressive. Maybe we squeeze out 1-2 inches of additional fluff tomorrow late afternoon/early evening. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was thinking Frederick/Westminster area jack as if this morning but might be south. We’ll see. Certainly better ratios up that way. 

Agreed, that helps. I could maybe squeeze 4.5-5” out of .3 qpf. But a bit more would be a bonus haha. 

[mitchnick]

Latest Sref is steady and good. Sorry if previously posted.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010512&fh=72&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[poolz1]

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I got mine in 2006 when I bought the house. Still going strong.  Wasn’t cheap but with that kind of durability it’s been worth it.  And when I have had the occasional issue, Davis has been awesome to deal with.

Got my first Davis in 2009 and just replaced it this year.  I really dug into whether I wanted to change from Davis but decided stick with it and happy I did.  The new console and Weatherlink are really nice. Great having data stored on the cloud and easily referenced from anywhere. 

[wxmeddler]

32 minutes ago, mappy said:

Weird. My station has sat near my pool for 10 years now and I’ve never noticed a difference compared to other weather stations nearby. Hell @wxmeddler helped me find the spot for it 

Backyard pools aren't really big enough to have a large impact on humidity / dew points unless your a few feet from it. Anything more than 15ft horizontally and 4 ft vertically won't notice.

Regarding Dew Point. The humidity sensor (and therefore dew point) is the first instrument to go bad on a home weather station. The hygrometer we use on mesonet stations and at ASOS sites need frequent calibration.

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

33/7, cloudy.  Where is my snow.  and lol a DCA being 37

31/6 here in the mountains 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’d still watch that area for a sneaky band. 

Hope Kevin doesn't see you posting in here 

[Ravens94]

SREF With a nudge back north

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

31/6 here in the mountains 

It’s been a long long time since we’ve been under freezing day before a storm.  When did we last have actual cold in place like this??  None of the recent storms were very cold. 

[JakkelWx]

snowing now at 141.3 NB I-81

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Agreed, that helps. I could maybe squeeze 4.5-5” out of .3 qpf. But a bit more would be a bonus haha. 

6-8” is definitely still doable up here. Most guidance indicates about .3-.4 qpf. If that ends up .5 instead (which is a super minor error) that’s 6-8 with our likely ratios.  I’d hoped to see the fringe zone shift north another 20-30 miles so we could feel more comfortable instead of sweating radar trends this evening but we’re not out of it by any means. 

[Eaglesrck63]

20 miles east of Cincinnati, Ohio

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

6-8” is definitely still doable up here. Most guidance indicates about .3-.4 qpf. If that ends up .5 instead (which is a super minor error) that’s 6-8 with our likely ratios.  I’d hoped to see the fringe zone shift north another 20-30 miles so we could feel more comfortable instead of sweating radar trends this evening but we’re not out of it by any means. 

Agreed. It’s not out of the question.

I went back to see what I got Jan 2019, only 2.8” so hoping we can get that extra tenth or so of precip this go round