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January 5-6 Thing Storm Obs


snowfan
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Just now, Scraff said:

Got a call for the Hoco crew? I got my neighbors thinking 6-8. Maybe a lucky lolli to 10. 

That's pretty right on with what my gut says too.  I've been telling everyone 4-8", but I'm leaning toward the higher side of that range.  9-10" definitely not out of the question, but 12z runs reversed the nice push we got on 0z.  I still don't really trust big ratios on the front end. Evening stuff tomorrow?  That's fluff.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

That's pretty right on with what my gut says too.  I've been telling everyone 4-8", but I'm leaning toward the higher side of that range.  9-10" definitely not out of the question, but 12z runs reversed the nice push we got on 0z.  I still don't really trust big ratios on the front end. Evening stuff tomorrow?  That's fluff.  

Was hoping the Euro would tack on another .10 qpf but unfortunately we lost about that amount at 12z.

Oh well

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26/10 smoking cirrus 

on the whole the 12z suite was a bit of a letdown for the MD line. Northern guidance went south and south went north. But I was expecting we would gain some ground this close. Confluence isn’t really that strong imo the SW just isn’t as amped and so the mid level jet is directed more latitudinally which limits the ability of the gulf moisture to punch north into the flow as effectively. 
 

But it’s still super close for the area and a 20 mile last minute shift or an extra .2 qpf is common and that’s all we need so I’m holding steady despite not seeing what I wanted 12z.  
 

RAP is trending north again and latest HRRR was pretty good. 
 

ETA: I saw some posts expecting the gradient to be less severe but it will be. Think back to Jan 30 2010. Westminster got 6”, the PA line 2-3 and 10 miles into PA not a flake!  Jan 2019 10 miles south of me got 6”, I got 2” and 10 miles north nada.  We just have to hope that cutoff ends up just north of the PA line and not just south of it. I still lean that way. 

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26/10 smoking cirrus 
on the whole the 12z suite was a bit of a letdown for the MD line. Northern guidance went south and south went north. But I was expecting we would gain some ground this close. Confluence isn’t really that strong imo the SW just isn’t as amped and so the mid level jet is directed more latitudinally which limits the ability of the gulf moisture to punch north into the flow as effectively. 
 
But it’s still super close for the area and a 20 mile last minute shift or an extra .2 qpf is common and that’s all we need so I’m holding steady despite not seeing what I wanted 12z.  
 
RAP is trending north again and latest HRRR was pretty good. 
 
ETA: I saw some posts expecting the gradient to be less severe but it will be. Think back to Jan 30 2010. Westminster got 6”, the PA line 2-3 and 10 miles into PA not a flake!  Jan 2019 10 miles south of me got 6”, I got 2” and 10 miles north nada.  We just have to hope that cutoff ends up just north of the PA line and not just south of it. I still lean that way. 

Only issue is that was 15 years ago and models have certainly improved since, but I hope you’re right.
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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Quick table that illustrates how rare warning level niña snows are in DC. Below is every instance in the 21st century. Anything 7"+ would be the biggest such snow in nearly two decades, and a total exceeding 9.3" would be the biggest since Jan '96. 

6136bfd19bd36dfa373a6c778a029b26.png.d3f792b9438575260b7387f7d972c403.png

Best cold-ENSO pattern since 1996. There’s a reason why people said that.

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2 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Ft. Hunt Va

Current temp 34.5

Dew Point 7

Wet Bulb 26.8

baro 1021 mb and falling

winds NE 3mph

sunny with cirrus streaming in

Let’s do this! 

Yeah my neighbors pool has got to be screwing with my wx station. Everyone’s DP and temp nearby are lower. Mine says 15 for the dew. 

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Just now, H2O said:

Yeah my neighbors pool has got to be screwing with my wx station. Everyone’s DP and temp nearby are lower. Mine says 15 for the dew. 

LOL, yeah, I put my weather station as far away from my pool as possible…it’s a heat sink for sure…until it freezes over…kinda like the Potomac!

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5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Yeah my neighbors pool has got to be screwing with my wx station. Everyone’s DP and temp nearby are lower. Mine says 15 for the dew. 

 

2 minutes ago, GATECH said:

LOL, yeah, I put my weather station as far away from my pool as possible…it’s a heat sink for sure…until it freezes over…kinda like the Potomac!

Weird. My station has sat near my pool for 10 years now and I’ve never noticed a difference compared to other weather stations nearby. Hell @wxmeddler helped me find the spot for it :lol:

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7 minutes ago, 87storms said:


Only issue is that was 15 years ago and models have certainly improved since, but I hope you’re right.

I was referencing those storms as similar setups wrt a sharp northern snowfall cutoff.  Models still struggle with pinning down the exact location and qpf with the h7 banding near the northern periphery of these type waves. They did it just last winter in Feb.  The banding shifted north at the last minute and places forecast to get 1-3” in central PA got 6-12”!  

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