1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

One difference 0z GFS compared to 18z, 18z brought mixed precio all the way into southern KY, 0z mixed precio isn't depicted any further north than Cumberland county.

Yeah, checked the sounding over my area...showed mix due to 100' section of column near surface made it to 32.5...think it would actually be snow.

[Reb]

CMC fixing to go boom

[TellicoWx]

CMC at 500 closer to ICON

[TellicoWx]

CMC

[Jed33]

That track and snowfall amounts looks almost identical to January 1988.

[TellicoWx]

GEFS looks to be siding more with the CMC/ICON vs its OP...still a few duds in there.

[TellicoWx]

Almost 5" mean covering 95% of the state

[TellicoWx]

GEFS mean

[TellicoWx]

Ukie looking alot like icon...deep saturation showing up

[John1122]

UKIE was slower but solid. Feels like the Euro is lurking to nuke our near perfect modeling night. 

[ShawnEastTN]

28 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

GEFS looks to be siding more with the CMC/ICON vs its OP...still a few duds in there.

Interesting, wonder if tomorrow we begin seeing the operational start trending more in line.  It is definitely encouraging to see so much modeling coalescing towards more qpf in general.  If we can get the operational of both GFS and Euro to go in that direction would be great.  In all reality we still have plenty of time for that to happen.  Would like to see everything in pretty close agreement by 36 hours of zero hour at least.

[jaxjagman]

35 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

CMC

You can look at the thermals and see why there is more snow with the  CMC.Much colder better ratios.Maybe it will be right,but it still has a cold bias

[jaxjagman]

Parts down south would be a disaster by the GFS,SN,IP,ZR,yuck

[Reb]

Euro trending flatter like the rest of the 0z suite

[John1122]

Not quite the beast the others are, but similar to it's AI brother. 

[WX FAN]

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

That track and snowfall amounts looks almost identical to January 1988.

We had 12 inches in Huntsville that week. I don’t think it’s near the same intensity.

[WX FAN]

I hope it snows, but I’m tired of getting burned by these computer models.

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, WX FAN said:

I hope it snows, but I’m tired of getting burned by these computer models.

I live on the edge, waiting on the rug to get pulled. I've never gotten over the Euro showing me getting 30 inches of snow 24 hours out, only to lose it last minute and I got like 1.5 inches. 

[ShawnEastTN]

12 minutes ago, WX FAN said:

I hope it snows, but I’m tired of getting burned by these computer models.

Yeah I think everyone on this forum knows that feeling, seems we go multiple years before finally getting a good storm and just about every year things will look good on models once or twice only to get rain or cold dry air.  It sucks, but on the other hand when we do finally get a good one it's that much sweeter. 

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I live on the edge, waiting on the rug to get pulled. I've never gotten over the Euro showing me getting 30 inches of snow 24 hours out, only to lose it last minute and I got like 1.5 inches. 

We like live in another world for snow,get a unexpected warm nose or even convection down south turns the faucet off

[Mrwolf1972]

06z icon hammers the valley this run the nam and reps look good too at the end of there runs hope we can land this one. 

[Uncle Nasty]

Woke up for work at 3:45. Just taking a look at everything. Wow.

I was confused on the Morristown update. They have increased their confidence with heavier snow it would seem. In the same paragraph they mention less QPF reaching the area showing on models.They were touting more snow, as in 2-6" a good possibility, but with less QPF, talking it down in the next sentence. I'm guessing they're counting on higher ratios but less QPF with their wording.

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[Scottie16]

Like where we are this far out.


.

[AFranklin88]

GEFS 6z looks good for valley, appears be nice track for low and clustered pretty tight

[zippity]

Nuanced discussion from NWS Huntsville:

A winter storm is increasingly likely to impact the Tennessee
Valley starting Thursday night and persisting through early
Saturday morning. A deepening upper level trough will begin to
phase with an upper level wave over Mexico on Thursday and eject
eastward across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A surface
low pressure system is expected to develop along the Mississippi
Gulf Coast late Thursday night then push northeastward through
the day on Friday. With temperatures at the onset of precipitation
well below freezing, snow begins to overspread from west to east
across the local forecast area Thursday night around midnight
local. High chances for accumulating snowfall will continue
through the day Friday. Given very cold antecedent conditions,
snow will almost immediately begin to accumulate on the ground and
area roadways resulting in hazardous travel conditions Thursday
night through at least Saturday morning.

Our current most likely scenario is that 1.5-2.5 inches storm
total snowfall will fall across northern Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee. However, one major uncertainty is where the
transition to a wintry mix, FZRA, or rain occurs. As the LLJ ramps
up during the late morning Friday, WAA begins to warm the column
bringing a transition from all snow to a wintry mix and possibly
FZRA. Our current forecast accounts for this, but if we remain
colder and precip falls as only snow then snow totals will
certainly increase. Looking at ensemble data, there appears to be
more individual members hinting at significantly higher amounts.
This will be something to keep and eye on heading towards the
start of this winter storm.

[Runman292]

[Carvers Gap]

6z Euro expanded its snow map.  The 6z GFS shrunk it.  But the are pretty close at this point.

[Carvers Gap]

We are also at the point where we can start watching the RGEM which looks aggressive.

[Jed33]

5 hours ago, WX FAN said:

We had 12 inches in Huntsville that week. I don’t think it’s near the same intensity.

Yeah I went back and looked at it. I probably should have worded it better. The track looks very similar. It was also a southern slider. The amounts were similar in some areas, especially the far western forum, but you’re right northern AL and some other areas definitely had more. The footprint just looked so similar.

[Carvers Gap]

Jury is still out on whether this is will be a true slider.  MRX called it a Miller A, but there are still some really big differences downstream over the NE corridor.  It may slide off the coast before it gets to the big cities.   I would tend to say it is super similar to the 96-96 storm in terms of track.  Kind of a slider but some Miller A characteristics since it may well try to turn the corner a bit.  How NE TN fairs will depend on how much it turns the corner and backs the flow.  The rain shadow is the issue for NE TN peeps right now.  The 6z Euro was much better in that respect(more NE TN snow) as was the 6z GEFS.  The 6z EPS is still running(out to 48).  It is interesting to see the RGEM with an aggressive precip field.  That might imply some mixing in the eastern valley if extrapolated, but it is at range and prob too amped.  It is very similar to the 0z CMC in placement of the precip. MRX has a great snow graphic(posted above).  I generally agree with that.  I think NE TN has a decent chance to get over 4" of snow as the wrap around will help here w/ better ratios at that point.  

3-6" for the eastern valley seems reasonable.  Points westward may be higher.  The angle of this into the forum area is going to be important.  Still, even at this late time, the phase is not being modeled consistently.  Numbers could be higher or lower depending on how that works out.  The cold is in place, and the ground very cold.  For E TN, this looks like this hits at night or as the sun sets Friday.  Friday storms tend to be the norm of late.  It is a weird deal that many great storms have arrived on the weekend, but it is kinda true.