TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 01:00 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:00 AM 21 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z EPS members: 18z EPS individual snow panels: Stating to see some big dogs...GEFS had 1 or 2 as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 01:41 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:41 AM 18z Euro AI upped totals again. Now 4-6 inches basically forum wide, 6+ around the southern border. That is 10:1. North of 40 likely has better ratios. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:52 AM 0z suite starting...looking for some continuity from 18z. It used to be you could almost count on some kind of jump one way or another somewhere around 72 hours out...almost like a truncation point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:07 AM 24 minutes ago, John1122 said: 18z Euro AI upped totals again. Now 4-6 inches basically forum wide, 6+ around the southern border. That is 10:1. North of 40 likely has better ratios. Be interesting to see if this continues across the 0z suite. Last 3 runs Euro AI definitely beefing up nicely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 02:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:08 AM The panel before this was similar for the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 02:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:09 AM 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: The panel before this was similar for the entire state. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 02:21 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:21 AM 10 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: That's basically all snow in our forum footprint too. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:30 AM We just have to hope the AI version is smarter than the normal Euro. The regular Euro is insistent upon moisture transport shutting down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 02:36 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:36 AM 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: We just have to hope the AI version is smarter than the normal Euro. The regular Euro is insistent upon moisture transport shutting down. It's apparently been quite a bit better over the last several months and nailed the storm that just past 7 days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:41 AM FWIW NAM looks pretty good at the end of its range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 02:42 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:42 AM 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:49 AM Ratio'd AI map. From Bouncycorn the Met who has his own model extraction/blending software. Hard to see, but that's 5 inches in 90 percent of the forum area with 6 and 7 inch totals in the darker blues. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 03:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:23 AM GFS Ai from 12z. Very good 850 temps and surface temps upper 20s to lower 30s for the forum area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:25 AM T.V. mets can really struggle with this stuff. The WVLT forecaster just was on, he said for Knoxville to get snow, the storm track would have to go from the Central gulf to Orlando. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:26 AM 00z ICON was way more juiced at 500 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Tuesday at 03:27 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:27 AM Just now, John1122 said: T.V. mets can really struggle with this stuff. The WVLT forecaster just was on, he said for Knoxville to get snow, the storm track would have to go from the Central gulf to Orlando. That’s just sad. that being said…ICON 0z is quite alright alright alright 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:28 AM 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: 00z ICON was way more juiced at 500 You're not kidding. At 18z it was actually in the middle between the Euro and GFS with how it handled the 500mb energy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 03:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:29 AM Icon 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted Tuesday at 03:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:29 AM 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: T.V. mets can really struggle with this stuff. The WVLT forecaster just was on, he said for Knoxville to get snow, the storm track would have to go from the Central gulf to Orlando. Was it that Ben guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:31 AM 1 minute ago, John1122 said: T.V. mets can really struggle with this stuff. The WVLT forecaster just was on, he said for Knoxville to get snow, the storm track would have to go from the Central gulf to Orlando. Yeah I'm really amazed at some of the things I hear come out of some local TV mets mouths. I'm far from a meteorologist but some things I've heard over the years really makes me wonder about their experience. WVLT last year did everything in their power to downplay the event last January because they missed the forecast greatly. Last January was one of the most impactful winter storms we've had in many years, affecting area roads for over a week in some areas yet they still worked to downplay it's impacts. Was so bizarre. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 03:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:33 AM Crazy part is, icon may have under done the totals...column is 100% saturated all way thru 500 = half dollars falling 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 03:37 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:37 AM NAM give us the BAM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 03:40 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:40 AM I was coming home tonight from Franklin there was a fine mist. I could tell the roads were icing over. They kept getting more shiny as I drove. Well reports are I65 there is a skating rink. Nashville now reporting wrecks all over. My sister In Cookeville is reporting the fine mist there also. At my house as of now no fine mist. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted Tuesday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:43 AM 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: I was coming home tonight from Franklin there was a fine mist. I could tell the roads were icing over. They kept getting more shiny as I drove. Well reports are I65 there is a skating rink. Nashville now reporting wrecks all over. My sister In Cookeville is reporting the fine mist there also. At my house as of now no fine mist. Be safe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:44 AM 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: I was coming home tonight from Franklin there was a fine mist. I could tell the roads were icing over. They kept getting more shiny as I drove. Well reports are I65 there is a skating rink. Nashville now reporting wrecks all over. My sister In Cookeville is reporting the fine mist there also. At my house as of now no fine mist. Yeah perfect conditions for that. Shallow residual moisture from the storm that just passed being rung out. I've had the tiniest flurries since dark but might be transitioning to that freezing mist you are describing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM 39 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Was it that Ben guy? I'm not sure. He'll probably be on again in a few minutes. He showed three tracks. Just inside the gulf coast was all freezing rain for east Tennessee. Just off the gulf coast was all freezing rain for East Tennessee. But the storm moving over Orlando on his 3rd track he said would allow snow. Then he switched over to the model they use, it had the L over Mobile and depicted snow down to Northern Miss, Alabama and Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM As far as 500...GFS had some minor differences but not enough...still semi holding back unlike the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 04:13 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:13 AM One difference 0z GFS compared to 18z, 18z brought mixed precip all the way into southern KY, 0z mixed precip isn't depicted any further north than Cumberland county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM The track that GFS is showing is almost ideal for East TN. That’s a track that has produced big snows here. Hard to imagine that track won’t produce a fairly significant snow in parts of our forum 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:15 AM Has some downsloping in NE Tennessee but that's at times over done. Hopefully it doesn't happen but it's hard to avoid with certain low tracks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now