1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Carvers Gap]

18z ICON is starting to catch on to this being a very powerful storm.  Perfect track for a big storm...cuts inside of Hatteras.  Ya'll know my "inside of Hatteras" rule.

[TellicoWx]

Would have loved to seen what the RGEM looked like rolled forward...best looking 500 over TX at 84 by far

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z ICON is starting to catch on to this being a very powerful storm.  Perfect track for a big storm...cuts inside of Hatteras.  Ya'll know my "inside of Hatteras" rule.

Starting to wonder if models are holding that piece at 500 back way too long. If it comes out together with the surface and opens the returns off the Gulf instead of Mexico..then the fuse is lit again.

[TellicoWx]

18z GFS looks alot better at 84, similar to RGEM so far

[TellicoWx]

Instead of dry slot in N AR...it's in corpus Christie at 90

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS should be good....

[housemtnTN]

31 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Still some lingering flurries in the east, but much beefier on that pass!

This would be great!

[Carvers Gap]

To clarify....looks good to 102, then warm nose again for E TN.  Overall, really good trends.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run.  I doubt that happens in reality.  Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal.  As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN.

[nrgjeff]

9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Instead of dry slot in N AR...it's in corpus Christie at 90

Let's talk severe instead.

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run.  I doubt that happens in reality.  Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal.  As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN.

Come on GFS, I was only joking!

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run.  I doubt that happens in reality.  Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal.  As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN.

500 started to roll out with the surface but held back a little unlike the icon coming all the way. Overall a decent size step in right direction..also eastern valley had moisture still moving up it even tho map showed no precip

[AMZ8990]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run.  I doubt that happens in reality.  Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal.  As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN.

Seems like model continuity/trends to a similar outcome has gotten considerably better over the last 2 days.  That’s definitely a trend I like to see.  

[John1122]

 

[jaxjagman]

Need that piece of energy to phase like the GFS shows,Euro dont its around that area where the point is to the NE

[Carvers Gap]

E TN peeps, do not despair.  The 18z GEFS is full of good trends, especially the clown map.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are the GEFS lows again:

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure this is the right thread?  The 18z GFS agains tries to build a glacier over the forum area.

[jaxjagman]

Icon,GFS,AND CMC dont flatten the Vort out like the Euro does.Euro is right its gonna cut into the QPFS,who knows right now whos gonna be right

[ShawnEastTN]

I'm not overly concerned with p-type, likely will start as snow for everyone p-type may transition to sleet for a time in the East but from my experience at least from Athens North if it starts as snow and transitions, it usually transitions to sleet and doesn't usually last too very long before going back over to snow.  Though any time with sleet does suck because it cuts snow totals a bit.  Further south near Georgia border might be a bit longer duration of mixing but even there I think going to still get at least modest snow totals.  Sleet does have one advantage, great for sledding if you are looking for speed.

[jaxjagman]

31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here are the GEFS lows again:

Hopefully  the strays that cut into Tn isnt right

[John1122]

The Euro had a better precip shield again at 18z. Still weakens as it moves East but made it further that time. 

[Wurbus]

MRX posted this on Twitter about an hour ago.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Hopefully  the strays that cut into Tn isnt right

Yeah, we need less of those members and not more!   The GFS is on the northwest side of the cone of probabilities.  Honestly, if we can just get a blend of the Euro and GFS...should be good.   I'd like to place my order now.  LOL.

[Wurbus]

How was the 18z Euro?

[Coach B]

12 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

How was the 18z Euro?

 

[John1122]

Ratio'd Euro.

 

 

[Wurbus]

Looks like some mixing issues or an energy transfer issue for the East.

[John1122]

14 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Looks like some mixing issues or an energy transfer issue for the East.

It still weakens as it heads East but it made it further that time. It's 4 run trend is quite a dramatic increase in QPF. 

[Icy Hot]

Interesting discussion and looking forward to watching the models over the next few days. If you get bored, make sure to take a look at the Southern forum. We need to get some of them a get well soon card. They aren’t sick, just mean and they need to do better! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z EPS members:

 

18z EPS individual snow panels: