1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

@Carvers Gap

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

IF there is an energy handoff, the energy would handoff to Savanah from TN.  I have seen that happen, but that is really rare.

When you say things like this a wooly worm loses its fur. 

[Carvers Gap]

FTR, the GFS is straight loaded on this run.

[John1122]

The UKIE was better for the east and worse for the west that run. It's been slowing trending north the last couple of days and the Euro has pretty closely mirrored it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro has begun on weatherbell. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

@Carvers Gap

I think this storm is going to turn the corner.  Lots of ingredients in play for a big winter storm - western ridge, NAO, cold source, and room to climb.  That gif is a really good illustration of each GEFS member's track.  So, one can really see the differences in the model - and there are not many.  The biggest thing to work out is whether there is a transfer of energy to the coast.  Again, with these big storms, it is not uncommon for that to happen in E TN.  Blend the CMC, UK, and GFS...pretty good track and storm.

[nrgjeff]

Pain is part of following snow in the South.

50 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Fully convinced this will be a whole lotta nothing for East TN. I was in the warm nose last Jan. Still salty about it. Winters are just not the same anymore. 

Same system dropped 6 inches 10 miles to my northwest, Soddy Daisy north of Chattanooga. Eastern part of Chatty proper got nothing, nada, zilch. I get sharp cut-offs, but that was a new level of cruelty. 

Think positive thoughts. I believe cold air will be in place. Handoff issues are a risk; and related, the lower precip rates could allow the surface warm nose. GFS can't decide whether to screw Middle Tennessee or the Great Valley. We've seen both either side of the Plateau.

Euro has decreasing precip rates but holds the temps in line. Could still be a low spot at the handoff, but the Euro doesn't really blank that spot (wherever it ends up). Or, perhaps we get a classic snow for everyone slider! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Or, perhaps we get a classic snow for everyone slider. 

When people say things like this, a wooly worm gets its fur back. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Still kind of hard to tell what the Euro is going to do, it looks like the whole thing is kicking out of Baja, but I guess we'll see. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

At work. Is there a recent NBM available? Curious to see what everything put together looks like as of now. The hype train is really getting going today on social media. 

[BNAwx]

Based on current modeling, do you guys think overcoming dry air will be a concern, or do you believe precip will be heavy enough to saturate the entire column?  Nothing more frustrating than a virga storm…

[Holston_River_Rambler]

A little more precip. makes it north this run. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, BNAwx said:

Based on current modeling, do you guys think overcoming dry air will be a concern, or do you believe precip will be heavy enough to saturate the entire column?  Nothing more frustrating than a virga storm…

As it looks right now on the Euro I'd say that will def. be a concern at onset. Maybe not so much on the GFS. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

500 mb:

 

surface:

[John1122]

That's at least a better run of the Euro. When the UKIE improved a bit, I expected it would as well.

[John1122]

It wasn't huge, but I have gone from .15 qpf to .22 since last night. A few more bumps like that and we might be talking 3 inches.

[Kasper]

42 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro has begun on weatherbell. 

Gimme

[TellicoWx]

Unless something drastically changes at 500...there is no moisture transport into the DGZ for eastern half of the state with the way the system is occluding on approach. The only way to overcome the 500 is with UVV's and so far that's not showing up. Hope I'm 100% wrong but this system has sleet fest written all over it to me. 500 really hasn't changed much the last 24 hrs roughly. Folks from west to western half middle TN look to be in better shape (closer to the 500 comma). 

 

12z GFS and EURO 500 RH

[Runman292]

6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Unless something drastically changes at 500...there is no moisture transport into the DGZ for eastern half of the state with the way the system is occluding on approach. The only way to overcome the 500 is with UVV's and so far that's not showing up. Hope I'm 100% wrong but this system has sleet fest written all over it to me. 500 really hasn't changed much the last 24 hrs roughly. Folks from west to western half middle TN look to be in better shape (closer to the 500 comma). 

 

12z GFS and EURO 500 RH

Sleet is better than freezing rain.

[TellicoWx]

The divergence between the Euro and GFS happens here for the east..if the GFS is correct, the eastern valley would benefit from the moisture flow coming up as part of the energy transfer toward the coast...Euro keeps the lid shut.

[John1122]

The EPS mean increased board wide vs 0z. Small trend but at least in a good direction.

[nrgjeff]

NBM and ECMWF are all in line with the WPC. Inject me with more 12Z EC, fewer hand-off complications. 
If we can reel it in another 36-48 hours of modeling, WPC has pretty good probs this far out!

Update: Nashville briefing has 56-60% one inch or greater Friday. Chart is not public yet.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z NAM just looks like it is ready to go.  Hey, I know it's the NAM, but at least we have a storm in range of the NAM!!!!....after tracking this pattern for a month.

[Wurbus]

The ECWF-AI had about .3-.4" of QPF for the whole state. Extreme southern counties were around .5".

[Wurbus]

18z ICON looks much healthier across the state

[Reb]

ICON looking beefy.

 

 

[Wurbus]

Still some lingering flurries in the east, but much beefier on that pass!

[TellicoWx]

Significant changes at 500 on the icon..that's what we need from this storm. 500 rolls forward with the surface low....we don't end up with the massive dry slot.

[John1122]

The Euro AI has been locked on since day 7, it may or may not be right but it's consistent. 

[Wurbus]

Let's hope the ICON leads the charge into a Happy Hour to remember!