1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[PowellVolz]

23 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS loves the southern border folks. 

Putting this here to check back next time we have a system like this. I always go back and look at how models handled things from certain ranges. 

 

This looks almost identical to the HRW Cams. 

[Bigbald]

One battle that is brewing is cmc vs gfs, which at this point is prolly a fruitless endeavor, but man they are miles apart at 0z on qpf.

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

This looks almost identical to the HRW Cams. 

The American models are marching in a line for sure. Not sure if they're correct but they're in a cluster. 

[John1122]

RAP slightly lowered QPF that run and warm nosed more than it had before. More sleet, lower snow totals vs it's last longer run. I wouldn't be surprised if the 06z HRRR follows suit. 

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RAP slightly lowered QPF that run and warm nosed more than it had before. More sleet, lower snow totals vs it's last longer run. I wouldn't be surprised if the 06z HRRR follows suit. 

Dont like the RAP,LP is going through Central MS

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Dont like the RAP,LP is going through Central MS

Its doing some weird shit..lol

[WishingForWarmWeather]

1 hour ago, Scottie16 said:

Another drop in temp.


.

Interesting to me how evenly the temperature rises and how chaotic the decrease is. 
 

Also,

Temp: 29°

DP: 18°

 Clarksville, TN

[Hurricaneguy]

At this point nothing is really changing minds we might be in for a pleasant surprise tomorrow. I was hoping for a late positive model trend. Guess we just watch in the real time now. 

[Stovepipe]

31 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

This looks almost identical to the HRW Cams. 

What's the brine QPF ratio looking like?  

[Utvols235]

This whole thread has been amazing. Thank yall for all the info/dialogue. It’s so great to follow.

Being in chatt and still bitter over last year I’m afraid we are in for it again tomorrow. I don’t want to be that guy.. but I’ve prepped myself for the worst outcome. The latest trends just further that. Hoping all the chatt people get a win tomorrow… it’s overdue!!


.

[John1122]

12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Dont like the RAP,LP is going through Central MS

It seeds the HRRR I believe. But they both can struggle past 12 hours. 

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It seeds the HRRR I believe. But they both can struggle past 12 hours. 

HRRR shows it also,maybe its right,looks like a inverted trough

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

HRRR shows it also,maybe its right,looks like a inverted trough

If you look at the HRRR,start at hr 7 on the surface map and keep going

[John1122]

The Euro is still in the storm is dying, no QPF for anyone east of Nashville. It's either going to score a major coup and we're gonna be heartbroken or it's having one of its worst performances in a while. 

I don't recall ever seeing models this far apart when a storm was underway. 

[John1122]

I shouldn't say no qpf.  But significantly less than other models. .2 to .3  vs .5 to .9 on other products. The Euro just shreds the storm as it moves East. 

[jaxjagman]

Least the Mesoscales dont show this right now

[jaxjagman]

Its raining east of the Miss River but the short range models showed this,it should change over soon

[jaxjagman]

Mempho,where have you been hiding?

[bearman]

One thing for sure Memphis is long overdue a good storm and at least right now they are getting it.

[BlunderStorm]

8 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Now, if only NWS Blacksburg would be willing to include Tazewell and Smyth counties in a WSW...  The microclimates usually shift crossing between the Tennessee and New River valleys.

Wow looks like Blacksburg read my post, they specifically added Tazewell and Smyth counties along with the blue ridge counties.

In all seriousness I am glad they are treating this system seriously.

[bearman]

New discussion

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
358 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

1. A winter storm will impact the area today into Saturday morning
with widespread accumulating snow. Snow may be mixed with sleet
and freezing across southeast Tennessee, southwest North Carolina
and far east Tennessee. Winter Storm Warning in effect for the
entire area.

2. Confidence is high for moderate to heavy snow accumulations
for areas west of interstate 81 and 75, and low to moderate east.

3. A mountain wave high wind event for the far east Tennessee
mountains and foothills for this afternoon and evening. Southerly
winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

4. The downslope mountain wave winds will limit the snow
accumulations across the eastern side of the valley and foothills.

Discussion:

A complex and significant winter storm will move across the area
today through Saturday morning. Snow showers and flurries will
continue across the mountains and foothills of far east Tennessee
and southwest Virginia much of Saturday.

Bottom Line:

Lower confidence on snowfall amounts across the eastern Tennessee
valley, southeast Tennessee, and southwest Virginia due to
greatest potential of mixed precipitation of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain. Downslope winds off the far east Tennessee
mountains will produce compression warming over the east side of
the valley limiting snowfall there.

However, MOST IMPORTANTLY is to get the message out a significant
winter storm will effect the area today through Saturday morning.
A period of moderate to heavy snow is expected which will reduce
visibilities, cause Extremely difficut travel. The afternoon
commute across much of the area will be difficult.

Deterministic and Ensemble trends:

The deterministic and ensemble models are in pretty good agreement
with bringing a Miller-A type snowstorm will move across the area
today through Saturday morning. The main difference is that the
deterministic NAM, and higher resolution HREF and HRRR show
pressure falls on the lee of the far east Tennessee mountains due
to the strength of the 300mb jet. These pressure falls induce a
mountain wave across the mountains and foothills. The
compressional warming from the downslope winds will tend to warm
the east side of the valley/foothills and limit snowfall there.

Otherwise, a abnormally strong upper jet of 185 knots+ will move
across the Tennessee valley today. NAEFS tables shows the upper
jet about 2-3 standard deviations above normal. NAEFS also shows
fairly strong 850mb moisture transport into the southern
Appalachians.

The upper jet will produce good fronto-genetic forcing along with
isentropic lift into the region. Good dendritic snow growth is
noted as well along with several hours of CSI for snow banding
especially across southeast Tennessee, northern Plateau, western
half of the Tennessee valley and southwest Virginia.

Precipitation Types and Snow Amounts:

Confidence is high for mainly snow across the northern Plateau,
western half of the central and northern sections of the Great
Tennessee Valley into much of southwest Virginia. These is where 5
to 6 inches are expected with locally heavier amounts are
possible. The lowest confidence portion of this forecast is the
east side of the valley and southwest North Carolina. Enough warm
air advection may change the initial snow over the a wintry
mixture of snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain. This wintry
mix may limit snow accumulations there.

Timing:

This is the highest confidence part of the forecast as models have
been fairly consistent for multiple days now with snow moving into
southeast TN around 12-15z and spreading east/northeastward
throughout the day, making it into southwest VA by 18z. Winter
precipitation will continue at a steady rate the rest of Friday and
into Saturday morning. The northwest flow Saturday will keep snow
showes and flurries going across the far east Tennessee mountains
and foothills, and southwest Virginia. Elsewhere Saturday, a
chance of flurries remains for Saturday.

Mountain Wave High Winds:

Due to a lee trough developing across the foothills this afternoon
in association with strong upper jet dynamics, pressure gradients
will tighten across the mountains producing a mountain wave event.
Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45
mph.

&&

.

[Runman292]

1 minute ago, bearman said:

New discussion

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
358 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

1. A winter storm will impact the area today into Saturday morning
with widespread accumulating snow. Snow may be mixed with sleet
and freezing across southeast Tennessee, southwest North Carolina
and far east Tennessee. Winter Storm Warning in effect for the
entire area.

2. Confidence is high for moderate to heavy snow accumulations
for areas west of interstate 81 and 75, and low to moderate east.

3. A mountain wave high wind event for the far east Tennessee
mountains and foothills for this afternoon and evening. Southerly
winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

4. The downslope mountain wave winds will limit the snow
accumulations across the eastern side of the valley and foothills.

Discussion:

A complex and significant winter storm will move across the area
today through Saturday morning. Snow showers and flurries will
continue across the mountains and foothills of far east Tennessee
and southwest Virginia much of Saturday.

Bottom Line:

Lower confidence on snowfall amounts across the eastern Tennessee
valley, southeast Tennessee, and southwest Virginia due to
greatest potential of mixed precipitation of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain. Downslope winds off the far east Tennessee
mountains will produce compression warming over the east side of
the valley limiting snowfall there.

However, MOST IMPORTANTLY is to get the message out a significant
winter storm will effect the area today through Saturday morning.
A period of moderate to heavy snow is expected which will reduce
visibilities, cause Extremely difficut travel. The afternoon
commute across much of the area will be difficult.

Deterministic and Ensemble trends:

The deterministic and ensemble models are in pretty good agreement
with bringing a Miller-A type snowstorm will move across the area
today through Saturday morning. The main difference is that the
deterministic NAM, and higher resolution HREF and HRRR show
pressure falls on the lee of the far east Tennessee mountains due
to the strength of the 300mb jet. These pressure falls induce a
mountain wave across the mountains and foothills. The
compressional warming from the downslope winds will tend to warm
the east side of the valley/foothills and limit snowfall there.

Otherwise, a abnormally strong upper jet of 185 knots+ will move
across the Tennessee valley today. NAEFS tables shows the upper
jet about 2-3 standard deviations above normal. NAEFS also shows
fairly strong 850mb moisture transport into the southern
Appalachians.

The upper jet will produce good fronto-genetic forcing along with
isentropic lift into the region. Good dendritic snow growth is
noted as well along with several hours of CSI for snow banding
especially across southeast Tennessee, northern Plateau, western
half of the Tennessee valley and southwest Virginia.

Precipitation Types and Snow Amounts:

Confidence is high for mainly snow across the northern Plateau,
western half of the central and northern sections of the Great
Tennessee Valley into much of southwest Virginia. These is where 5
to 6 inches are expected with locally heavier amounts are
possible. The lowest confidence portion of this forecast is the
east side of the valley and southwest North Carolina. Enough warm
air advection may change the initial snow over the a wintry
mixture of snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain. This wintry
mix may limit snow accumulations there.

Timing:

This is the highest confidence part of the forecast as models have
been fairly consistent for multiple days now with snow moving into
southeast TN around 12-15z and spreading east/northeastward
throughout the day, making it into southwest VA by 18z. Winter
precipitation will continue at a steady rate the rest of Friday and
into Saturday morning. The northwest flow Saturday will keep snow
showes and flurries going across the far east Tennessee mountains
and foothills, and southwest Virginia. Elsewhere Saturday, a
chance of flurries remains for Saturday.

Mountain Wave High Winds:

Due to a lee trough developing across the foothills this afternoon
in association with strong upper jet dynamics, pressure gradients
will tighten across the mountains producing a mountain wave event.
Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45
mph.

&&

.

Looks like MRX is going all in on the western half of the Central valley, northern plateau, and Southwest Virginia getting hammered with snow.

[bearman]

3 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

Looks like MRX is going all in on the western half of the Central valley, northern plateau, and Southwest Virginia getting hammered with snow.

Yes they are I am in west Knoxville so I should be good.  Hopefully the East can get some love.

[Runman292]

Just now, bearman said:

Yes they are I am in west knoxville so I should be good.  Hopefully the east can get some love.

I'm in Oak Ridge, so I should be in the same boat. I'm rooting for the mix to stay more south into GA.