1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[matt9697]

Recent NAM looks like a beaut for me! 

[dwagner88]

Looks like we are going to miss our high temp again today. My PWS is only at 34 and appears to have leveled off for the afternoon.

[John1122]

The NAM semi folded to the HRRR/RAP. It went from a Plateau runner to an Apps runner.

[nrgjeff]

They're literally giving us the Finger. The low-end slide is even worse. On the bright side, the high-end slide hammers everyone with 6-8 inches including Chatty - an all-snow isentropic bomb scenario.

[Hurricaneguy]

When I was at UT, every snow would always be better in the Tri Cities and east of Knoxville. Knox County was a major snow hole. Now in the last several years those places have switched roles. 

[tnweathernut]

12 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

When I was at UT, every snow would always be better in the Tri Cities and east of Knoxville. Knox County was a major snow hole. Now in the last several years those places have switched roles. 

I've noticed that the last several years.  Would make for an interesting case study. I was telling @Carvers Gapit's not like the mountains haven't been there the whole time.  lol

[Grothar of Herndon]

Dickenson and Buchanan Counties in SWVA now under Winter Storm Warning. I believe Lee and Wise County already had Winter Storm Warning. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

I've noticed that the last several years.  Would make for an interesting case study. I was telling @Carvers Gapit's not like the mountains haven't been there the whole time.  lol

More upslope equals better winters for you foothills folks.  Been less of that lately.  It will come back.

[BuCoVaWx]

7 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

Dickenson and Buchanan Counties in SWVA now under Winter Storm Warning. I believe Lee and Wise County already had Winter Storm Warning. 

 

Dickenson and Buchanan counties are a part of Charleston WV NWS. They had talked about issuing advisory but changed their minds to Winter Storm Warning instead. They usually wait til the last minute to issue warnings down here.

[tnweathernut]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

More upslope equals better winters for you foothills folks.  Been less of that lately.  It will come back.

I'm talking about synoptic storms, not upslope events.  My house doesn't do upslope as well as the true foothill guys, but my office does.  My house only excels with the downslope and dryslots.  lol

[nrgjeff]

WPC winter page updated in the proper direction. Chatty looks really reasonable. JC is similar but 2 in. low-end. Kingsport is similar with a 6 in. high-end. So yeah, keep giving us the Finger!

Then they have KnoxVegas 2-5-8 must be nice. Range is from questionable temps to isentropic bomb.
They have NashVegas 3-6-7 which seems aggressive. Tighter range more confidence though. 

Experimental NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal to explore on your own from the WPC winter page.

[TellicoWx]

ICON and RGEM lower totals

[ladyjmayo]

New graphics From 3 pm MRX Winter Briefing:

[*Flash*]

Great write-up by NWS-Nashville. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/ohx/briefing/SitRep.pdf

Also, I can't help but notice the entire state of Tennessee is in a Winter Storm Warning. Archiving the current NOAA alert map below for future reference.

[*Flash*]

4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

WPC winter page updated in the proper direction. Chatty looks really reasonable. JC is similar but 2 in. low-end. Kingsport is similar with a 6 in. high-end. So yeah, keep giving us the Finger!

Then they have KnoxVegas 2-5-8 must be nice. Range is from questionable temps to isentropic bomb.
They have NashVegas 3-6-7 which seems aggressive. Tighter range more confidence though. 

Experimental NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal to explore on your own from the WPC winter page.

I had the same initial reaction with respect to Nashville. Not sure how they're deriving this...

[nrgjeff]

That's almost the entire TVA Service Territory. Overall this is a true Southern winter storm. 

Re the MRX low-end and high-end charts. That's anything from a depressing warm surface to all-snow big-time isentropic lift for hours. We're gonna find out soon!

NAM red alert below. Can I give the NAM the Finger?

[ladyjmayo]

[*Flash*]

11 minutes ago, ladyjmayo said:

Greeneville, stay on your birth control. 

[ladyjmayo]

[jaxjagman]

Looks like a Christmas light show right now

[Silas Lang]

Can I just say, I love that they release these probability and confidence graphics. I feel like they used to not do that years ago? Maybe they did and I didn't pay attention. 

Anyway, I really like them and think it is much better information to put out there due to the nature of snow storms in the southeast.  It shows some transparency in the process which I appreciate. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

Day cloud phase below Nice Gulf and Pacific moisture

[ShawnEastTN]

6 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Can I just say, I love that they release these probability and confidence graphics. I feel like they used to not do that years ago? Maybe they did and I didn't pay attention. 

Anyway, I really like them and think it is much better information to put out there due to the nature of snow storms in the southeast.  It shows some transparency in the process which I appreciate. 

I don't remember them doing these until recent years and really this year more so than last even.

[ladyjmayo]

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I don't remember them doing these until recent years and really this year more so than last even.

I don't think I've seen these until this year. But I was out of commission for the big event last year (in ICU with Covid), so they may have had them and I just missed them.

[tnweathernut]

I hope the clouds can shoot better than Tennessee shot against Florida a couple of nights ago.  Watching that game felt a lot like sitting at 46 degrees under sprinkles and knowing 8 miles to your northwest it's ripping fatties and 31 degrees.

[ShawnEastTN]

All I know whatever p-type falls tomorrow imby it is not going to melt.  Every flake or pellet will stick, not to mention freezing rain.  Got up to a balmy 34 which did nothing for the ground as it's still rock hard frozen like concrete been like this for 2 days now, those road temps and sun angle issues we usually have will be non-existent tomorrow.  Will be treacherous everywhere!

[jaxjagman]

GFS is locked in

[bearman]

I don't think I broke  the freezing mark today at the house but as you said it does not matter the ground is rock hard.  I was down to 15 this morning and I did not get above freezing Yesterday.  We are set for a good setup for those that like full coverage.  

7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

All I know whatever p-type falls tomorrow imby it is not going to melt.  Every flake or pellet will stick, not to mention freezing rain.  Got up to a balmy 34 which did nothing for the ground as it's still rock hard frozen like concrete been like this for 2 days now, those road temps and sun angle issues we usually have will be non-existent tomorrow.  Will be treacherous everywhere!

 

[dwagner88]

11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

GFS is locked in

It is showing a warm surge at around 800 MB for about 3 hours across SE TN. This gets reflected in the snow maps. I think there is going to be a lot more sleet than snow south of 40.

[Jed33]

It’s literally been above freezing here only a brief period Monday morning through about 2PM. Otherwise, we’ve been below freezing since last Friday night to Sunday, which featured the ice, along with Monday afternoon till current. Everything is frozen extremely solid. All the ponds around here are frozen with a layer of snow on them from yesterday. I also noticed this morning when I was getting some water from my faucet that the excess water froze immediately on the concrete driveway and this was right by the house. Normally it might take a few minutes but it froze immediately. I thought yeah, this is how fast the roads will ice up tomorrow. As the old saying goes, it will stick better than melted butter on a biscuit!