1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Kasper]

MRX

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Wow! This might actually be a possibility? This is a higher resolution short range model, correct?

I think it's possible, but should be taken with a hunk of salt for now. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Healthy moisture transport:

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Kasper said:

MRX

Yeah really, lol. I just saw their accs map. Not updated since 3 something this morning and have relatively low amounts shown compared to what data is showing now.

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Wow! This might actually be a possibility? This is a higher resolution short range model, correct?

Yes...but remember the higher the resolution, the greater the prob of error with each passing hour into the future...butterfly effect. It's still not in range to be taken verbatim, but trends is useful info.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z 12 km NAM sleet sounding, I will defer to Tellico:

 

location NE Alabama:

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, Kasper said:

MRX

NAM hasn't rolled yet, but jut in case it fails...the Etophian WPC using their latest 1989 DOS comp is there for backup.

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Which is different from their website which displays this graphic....I could not imagine being an administrator trying to decide about tomorrow! 

School admins have to make lots of hard decisions, but trust me, this will not be one of them. 

[Kasper]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah really, lol. I just saw their accs map. Not updated since 3 something this morning and have relatively low amounts shown compared to what data is showing now.

Trust me I’m a Store Manager at a grocery store, we got absolutely murdered yesterday and today is even worse…… wish me luck as I go in later! 

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z 12 km NAM sleet sounding, I will defer to Tellico:

 

location NE Alabama:

Imagine your a snowflake just traveling along minding your own buisness...then for a brief second a cow fart passes by and and clips one of your points...may say what H*** was that, but you continue on to your destination with no other issues.

[fountainguy97]

Icing would be pretty devastating with ground temps like there are currently. 
 

ice would accumulate even at air temp of 33-34 because the ground is mid 20s

[Carvers Gap]

3.5" of sleet in northern Alabama.  I just don't see that being realistic.  Maybe it will be, but it just seems a bit "off" compared to even its previous runs which seemed a bit off.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, fountainguy97 said:

Icing would be pretty devastating with ground temps like there are currently. 
 

ice would accumulate even at air temp of 33-34 because the ground is mid 20s

Either way, the 12z NAM is a significant winter storm for pretty much the entire forum.  Those amounts will turn out the lights if they verify.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM is still trying to shove a lp up into the gut of middle TN

4 run trend:

[Carvers Gap]

In may ways, the 12z NAM is the worst case scenario in terms of long term impacts.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Icing would be pretty devastating with ground temps like there are currently. 
 

ice would accumulate even at air temp of 33-34 because the ground is mid 20s

I liked <sarcasm> this sounding from the NAM:

31 degrees, best guess: Rain 

sounding from this frame in central TN

[fountainguy97]

QPF trend is up. But we have one of the biggest gaps between the hrrr and nam I've seen in recent memory. 
 

The RGEM will be my tie breaker

[Carvers Gap]

If school systems are in session(assuming the 12k NAM is correct) when that hits...everybody is walking home or stuck.  

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NAM is still trying to shove a lp up into the gut of middle TN

4 run trend:

That is an ice storm.

[Reb]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

That is an ice storm.

MRX currently, on a sinking ship

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

QPF trend is up. But we have one of the biggest gaps between the hrrr and nam I've seen in recent memory. 
 

The RGEM will be my tie breaker

Looks like whatever is going to fall will be frozen.  Most of that falls at night in E TN.  That 12z NAM run would be crippling.  Let's hope folks get enough warning - if that is the case.  That is 100x worse than 3-7" of snow.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

FV3 FWIW coming in with very little ice

[Kasper]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If school systems are in session(assuming the 12k NAM is correct) when that hits...everybody is walking home or stuck.  

Yep, that’s why I don’t get the calls so far for MRX that kind of ice would devastate roads, power grid you name it!

[TellicoWx]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I liked <sarcasm> this sounding from the NAM:

31 degrees, best guess: Rain 

sounding from this frame in central TN

Yeah that's a zr sounding...warm nose is too deep for sleet. But cause sharpy says rain...ice totals won't get counted on acc map.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Yep, that’s why I don’t get the calls so far for MRX that kind of ice would devastate roads, power grid you name it!

The NAM is stubborn, and it that is what is concerning.   RIght now it seems our choices are either snow or ice or both.  That run is a far more significant winter storm (in regards to impacts) than anything that has been modeled this week.  If that is the trend, that is an icy trend and a concern.   IMHO, that is a winter storm no matter how one slices it.

[Carvers Gap]

The 3k NAM managed 6" of sleet somehwere in the Upstate or SW NC.  That just seems way too wound up.  Seems like feedback.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Anyone have any thoughts on why the NAM is doing this? I guess I'm asking what process does it see that shoots the 850 winds and WAA so far north? Superficially (i.e me remembering all the runs I've looked at in the past few hours) nothing seems even close to it. 

Is it a convection issue? Is it how its handling a shortwave? I'm not saying its wrong, but I'd like to know what it is seeing. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z 3K NAM and 12z 12k NAM:

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Anyone have any thoughts on why the NAM is doing this? I guess I'm asking what process does it see that shoots the 850 winds and WAA so far north? Superficially (i.e me remembering all the runs I've looked at in the past few hours) nothing seems even close to it. 

Is it a convection issue? Is it how its handling a shortwave? I'm not saying its wrong, but I'd like to know what it is seeing. 

I think we wait to see the rest of the 12z suite before passing a verdict.  To me, it looks too wound up.  It looks like feedback.  That is a bias of that model.  The bigger problem is that the 12z NAM is by far the most significant winter scenario we have seen in modeling this week.  The suck factor would be off the charts.  If it isn't feedback, I do think it is because the storm has been sampled better.  It started jumping around as soon as that northern vortex came on board.  

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Anyone have any thoughts on why the NAM is doing this? I guess I'm asking what process does it see that shoots the 850 winds and WAA so far north? Superficially (i.e me remembering all the runs I've looked at in the past few hours) nothing seems even close to it. 

Is it a convection issue? Is it how its handling a shortwave? I'm not saying its wrong, but I'd like to know what it is seeing. 

One additional thought.   It also could be the northern jog that has occurred all winter at the last minute.  The problem?  Modeling during the last 12 hours last weekend....came back south.  Again, let's see if it has support.  The alternative option (ice) would be rough.  That could make rush hour a complete nightmare on the eastern side of the state.