1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[*Flash*]

36 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Clean phase instead of the dirty phase from the past few days.  That low in the Lakes got entrained.  Spins right down into the developing storm.  And we aren't far off with the system behind it.

Gorgeous vorticity. That’ll do indeed.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z Euro sure looked a lot like the 18z GFS.  Didn’t quite head up the coast but trending that way.

[TellicoWx]

Interesting..WPC completely removed the CMC and Ukie from their blend for this system.

 

"A general model blend of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET was used for the first two days of the period (Wednesday and Thursday), with more weight placed on the GFS and ECMWF. For Friday onwards, the CMC and UKMET were removed from the blend and the ECENS and GEFS ensemble means were added in increasing amounts."

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Interesting..WPC completely removed the CMC and Ukie from their blend for this system.

 

"A general model blend of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET was used for the first two days of the period (Wednesday and Thursday), with more weight placed on the GFS and ECMWF. For Friday onwards, the CMC and UKMET were removed from the blend and the ECENS and GEFS ensemble means were added in increasing amounts."

They took out the weaker solutions?

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

They took out the weaker solutions?

Yeah...saying they believe the Euro has a slightly better handle over the GFS. Was there afternoon 3-7 Day hazard AFD...this afternoon.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro AIFS:

 

 

H5 vort image kind of sums up the changes:

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sorry put the above in the wrong thread. 

[TellicoWx]

See where it goes, but 0z ICON hammering central TX at 84

[TellicoWx]

0z Icon..If you are looking for a big dog (still decent little event forum wide)...Cousin Edddie says lol:

[John1122]

I'd take the ICON, obviously rather have the GFS.  

 

[TellicoWx]

Kinda feel like @John1122lately...hard to watch what used to be money on some of these models (Dallas getting hammered ex), just to go splat kinda right when it crosses the MS river.

[Matthew70]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Kinda feel like @John1122lately...hard to watch what used to be money on some of these models (Dallas getting hammered ex), just to go splat kinda right when it crosses the MS river.

Honestly the icon is very wishy washy. I’m not sure why it’s even a model. 

[John1122]

GFS is another wild one. 

[John1122]

That would be a winter storm from yesteryear on the GFS. Inland runner that just snows and snows for hours on the eastern half of the area, after front end blasting the west side. Some mixing issues again that run, south of 40, but less than 18z because it wasn't quite as amped before it cut up the coastal plain. 

[John1122]

I could live with this. 

 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

That would be a winter storm from yesteryearDGZ on the GFS. Inland runner that just snows and snows for hours on the eastern half of the area, after front end blasting the west side. Some mixing issues again that run, south of 40, but less than 18z because it wasn't quite as amped before it cut up the coastal plain. 

Watched the sounding on the southern end of the valley...had an issue with getting the moisture into the DGZ...no real sign of any major warm nose. Looked more like a lift issue causing frz drizzle sounding.

[John1122]

There would be layers of ice in the snow in some areas. 

[TellicoWx]

34 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Honestly the icon is very wishy washy. I’m not sure why it’s even a model. 

Agree...just kinda cranky at my old age lol...There's a steep road that goes straight uphill in town here that we use to sled down as a kid. Now over a decade since we had enough snow on the road to close it down for the kids.

[John1122]

Canadian is confounding. Produces a lot of WAA and it's icy, but that WAA brings comparatively little moisture north for so much WAA. 

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

There would be layers of ice in the snow in some areas. 

Take away the DGZ issue and covert to snow...would line up with what would be expected climo (TX area that's nailed, LP pivoting near FL Panhandle, and backside energy/coma head)..6"-10" valley wide. 

[John1122]

Canadian track is now a mirror of the GFS. Inland runner. 

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Canadian is confounding. Produces a lot of WAA and it's icy, but that WAA brings little moisture north. 

At 120..can see a faint reflection at 850 of a piece of energy over SE MO..playing wacky games with the 850s...GFS doesn't have that feature.

[ShawnEastTN]

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I could live with this. 

 

Check please!

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

At 120..can see a faint reflection at 850 of a piece of energy over SE MO..playing wacky games with the 850s...GFS doesn't have that feature.

It has me as sleet/snow on the sounding with no melt layer anywhere. Like 700mb to the surface, not just below 32, but below 28 or so. 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It has me as sleet/snow on the sounding with no melt layer anywhere. Like 700mb to the surface, not just below 32, but below 28 or so. 

Did it saturate up into the DGZ...haven't checked up your way since you don't usually have that issue.

[John1122]

The Canadian ends up here, a lot of sleet under the snow from 1 tier of counties south of the KY border and points south. 

 

[TellicoWx]

CMC is just hellbent on turning SE into an ice block at some point this winter..did something similar with today's system

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

CMC is just hellbent on turning SE into an ice block at some point this winter..did something similar with today's system

Record breaking snow in Texas and Arkansas too. 

[TellicoWx]

@John1122 northern end of plateau..DGZ issue, never fully saturates, so Sharpy reads that as sleet/frz rain

[John1122]

UKIE is similar but even weaker than the ICON. Dumps on western areas then unravels.