1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Carvers Gap]

Modeling this phase out west is no joke.  It is amazing modeling can do this.  We are relying on effective programming, reliable/ timely data of the storm, reliable/timely data in front and behind the storm, and trying to model chaos.  The weather along the West Coast (just watch the news) shows how volatile things are in that corner of the world.  The phase for this storm occurs just east of that area.  

[Hurricaneguy]

2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

That ARW run winds up with 5-8" south of 40, but I don't think it's done snowing in NE TN yet at the end of the run. Still doesn't like Greene county all that much. Downsloping I suppose.

 Sigh 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Emd of the run and still snowing inW/TN

Actually its KINDA like the NAM...fwiw,LP cutting through B'HAM

[jaxjagman]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
818 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 806 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

 - High chance of snow accumulation and travel impacts Friday
   into early Saturday.

 - Cold temperatures this week with lows in the teens tonight.

 - Temperatures below freezing during nighttime hours next week
   will re-freeze any melted snow, resulting in black ice and
   continued hazardous travel especially on secondary roads.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Skies are finally clearing out of Middle TN as a trough has exited
to the east. It`s been cold, but this trough brought a reinforcing
shot of colder air. This combined with clearing skies will make
for a very cold night across the area. Widespread lows in the
teens are expected with a medium chance (30-50%) that temperatures
fall into the single digits along the upper Plateau.

One more quiet day is on tap Thursday as temperatures only warm
into the mid-30s. Our winter storm will be approaching by tomorrow
night, with snow moving into the area from southwest after
midnight. As far as forecast concerns and uncertainty, not much
has changed from the previous discussion below. The bottom line
is that you should be prepared for significant travel impacts by
mid-Friday morning.

[*Flash*]

29 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This is from last January when the NAM was about 48-60 hours out and it suddenly decided to have East Tennessee in the 50s in a dry slot after it made a jarring NW jump. 

 

Oh no. Hate speech!  Jk, jk.

[John1122]

18z AI Euro just finished a bit ago. QPF up, no mixing/amping issues. 

[Reb]

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

18z AI Euro just finished a bit ago. QPF up, no mixing/amping issues. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS holds serve....

[John1122]

GFS was basically a reprint of 18z. Maybe more snow around Knoxville. Heavy sleet in Chattanooga but several inches of snow falls there too. 

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

0z GFS holds serve....

Not much change just comes in a  little faster than earlier

[TellicoWx]

Think what NAM shows is how razor thin this system is...any slight amping will throw a wrench into. But learned over the couple decades, if you want snow in the southern valley, you have to ride that razors edge...(most ends in heartbreak, but every now and then....)

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Any chance anyone can post the RGEM, ICON and if you’re feeling nice the AI Euro for me? I’m at work and unable to go digging through and only have time to scroll to see a few pictures. If not no worries! Thank you in advance if anyone is able to as I won’t be able to thank for a moment. 

[ShawnEastTN]

0Z GFS Kuchera map

[8283 El Nino Baby]

6 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Any chance anyone can post the RGEM, ICON and if you’re feeling nice the AI Euro for me? I’m at work and unable to go digging through and only have time to scroll to see a few pictures. If not no worries! Thank you in advance if anyone is able to as I won’t be able to thank for a moment. 

Snow totals or these maps?

[BuCoVaWx]

It looks like I may end up on the lower side of totals on this storm, but I'm still stoked to actually have some winter weather!! I'm very happy for my TN buddy's, you guy's deserve a decent storm!

[WishingForWarmWeather]

6 minutes ago, 8283 El Nino Baby said:

Snow totals or these maps?

Totals would be amazing but this was nice too  

[Reb]

CMC bumped up totals state wide 

[Reb]

[John1122]

Canadian. I think it went up around an inch or 1.5 in areas along 40. 

 

[Uncle Nasty]

Local NBC forecast looks almost identical to last January.  They went from 4-8 at their 6 o'clock broadcast  all the way down to 1" with up to 6" north of town. That's disheartening  if it works out this way. 

Edit to add: That would be 1" more than last year when I had 33° and a rain/mix to
drizzle.

[TellicoWx]

So spent last hour going frame by frame thru the soundings for each model (except NAM, just cause it's an outlier as right now)...and I had to give a prediction for the southern valley..."3-6" with the last few hours ending as freezing drizzle.. .05"-.10"...just enough to glaze the top. Frz drizzle caused by DGZ drying out.

[ShawnEastTN]

54 minutes ago, Reb said:

Nice uptick!

[John1122]

UKIE around the same qpf, all snow in Tennessee. 

[John1122]

EURO sucked for me that run, but no mixing issues once again for Tennessee. It's on the weak edge still of all the models. 

[BlunderStorm]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

EURO sucked for me that run, but no mixing issues once again for Tennessee. It's on the weak edge still of all the models. 

Yeah, I'll take the flakes with near 100% insurance of all snow but its slimmer pickings north of the primary axis of precip. We gotta hope for the light and fluffy high ratio stuff.

[John1122]

03z RAP is amped with the Apps low. SE/Polk gets screwed but it's way out at range so I don't expect it to be great.  

[fountainguy97]

I am randomly up at 06z time so I'll pull the night shift.

06z hrrr has importantly stopped the bleeding and even reversed. Eastern areas still having mountain shadow issues but it's much less noticeable this go around.

Still going to cut the low into the apps though.

You can clearly see better qpf across eastern regions. Warm nose is better too. 

[fountainguy97]

06z nam

Hr 21 is slightly more positive tilt (better) looks like it's 18z run and not like the worse 00z.

12km nam still massive mixing issues. But it did tick better in the upper levels. Key is the trend stopped.  Mountain shadow qpf issue is much better this time too.

[John1122]

Titanic dry slot on the NAM 3k. Mixing. Mountain rain issues etc. The works basically. All the hi-res American models are having those issues now.  3k is bad for anywhere in East Tennessee, especially so East of 81 or south of 40.

[John1122]

The HRRR is much better than the NAM 12/3k. Didn't help the counties in the far SE/E but was better for everyone else than either NAM.