Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:27 PM @Daniel Boone, that 18z GFS run a 95-96 redux? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Looks like there is something right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM Fuse was lit that run...definitely an all in hand or go big or go home solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think it's gonna peter out for Eastern areas like the Euro, but I hope not. Lord I hope not I’d like to have good snow before my impending death! I’m not dying btw but the way it’s worked for me lately death may come before I see another flake lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM The low diving into the backside of that storm caused the system to back the southwest flow just a bit. That caused the southwest flow in front. The "low in the lakes" setup yields more snow, but a less powerful system. The only issue with that setup is that the slp could trend northwest over several runs. That is a really big storm. It deepens rapidly. That is a boomer. But all-in-all, we take that run in spades. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:33 PM 1 minute ago, Kasper said: Lord I hope not I’d like to have good snow before my impending death! I’m not dying btw but the way it’s worked for me lately death may come before I see another flake lol It didn't, it just took a while longer to get here than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM If that phases misses, there is one which is only about 24-36 hours right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM That gets to 966 off NYC. That is a blizzard for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The low diving into the backside of that storm caused the system to back the southwest flow just a bit. That caused the southwest flow in front. The "low in the lakes" setup yields more snow, but a less powerful system. The only issue with that setup is that the slp could trend northwest over several runs. That is a really big storm. It deepens rapidly. That is a boomer. But all-in-all, we take that run in spades. Yeah...I've always considered Pensacola are the pivot point. If it catches it before that point..not good. Around that area...sweet spot. It's one of the reasons local Mets blowed the Forcast for the storm I won't name...thought would pull too far NW...but didn't happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM The forum area does not appear to warm much after the storm either 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah...I've always considered Pensacola are the pivot point. If it catches it before that point..not good. Around that area...sweet spot. It's one of the reasons local Mets blowed the Forcast for the storm I won't name...thought would pull too far NW...but didn't happen. No need to mention that epic storm lol, we all know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM That has 78mph sustained winds at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM The guys in the MA forum might need some smelling salts after that run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:43 PM Somebody up there just got four feet on that run. That was a blizzard run. edit: 3' for that storm. I forgot to take out the current storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:44 PM 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The guys in the MA forum might need some smelling salts after that run. lol that is crazy over three feet of snow on the ground in the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 10:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:45 PM 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If that phases misses, there is one which is only about 24-36 hours right behind it. Is that what is hanging out in the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM 1 minute ago, matt9697 said: lol that is crazy over three feet of snow on the ground in the MA 42" in 24 hours. (Kuchera) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Just now catching up. Wow!!!! Did not expect that, will take that all day long. Not concerned with ice depicted as that is usually over done if the storm is continuing to strengthen as it passes Tallahassee rounding the bend towards Hatteras, even southern valley gets decent snow albeit over a bit of ice on the front end. Only issue is further south like Chatty might get a longer duration of sleet before switching to snow but still get good snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM Can anyone get a Kuchara map for just that storm including the upslope after, ~ roughly Jan 11-13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM All I can say.....I have no idea if we see anything close to that(probably not in the NE). But if that is real, learn everything you can when tracking it. We don't get those very often. That would go in a book some day. If anything, just enjoy that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Sunday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:54 PM 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The guys in the MA forum might need some smelling salts after that run. Or a change of pants. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Sunday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:55 PM What is that in the GOM lol and why wouldnt it get sucked up in the previous system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:56 PM The comma would have blizzard conditions in our mountains on that run. 40mph gusts with moderate to heavy snow falling along the TN/NC line. TRI would have 25-30mph gusts under the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:57 PM This is gonna be a monster run with the small systems which follow the bl......bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:59 PM The 18z GEFS has it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Sunday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:25 PM 35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Can anyone get a Kuchara map for just that storm including the upslope after, ~ roughly Jan 11-13? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Quite an evolution: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM 18z Euro still a bit strung out in comparison to the GFS: 18z GEFS members: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 12:14 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:14 AM 45 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Quite an evolution: Clean phase instead of the dirty phase from the past few days. That low in the Lakes got entrained. Spins right down into the developing storm. And we aren't far off with the system behind it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 12:50 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:50 AM 34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Clean phase instead of the dirty phase from the past few days. That low in the Lakes got entrained. Spins right down into the developing storm. And we aren't far off with the system behind it. Exactly what I thought of when alluding to the Feb. 72 Storm. Miller A phased and pulled the gll into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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