1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Hurricaneguy]

Nothing has changed my mind yet on mixing issues for areas south of I81 in East TN. Still thinking 1-2'' max for those areas assuming slush doesnt wash most away like last year.  

[Carvers Gap]

I think this phase is giving models fits.  We will have a much better picture after the Euro runs.  I won't stake my fortunes to the NAM at range, but it did pretty well with the last system IMBY...so I won't discount it either.  In the back of my mind, I do think there is probably some change due to the vortex being sampled better on shore, but it is still in an area that is very remote.  Satellites help with that, but on ground measurements are tough to beat.  One day we will have drones which can sample those areas more regularly.  

[housemtnTN]

7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Last year was wild!!!  For me it's impacts were very near the Blizzard of 93 because the duration of effects lingering.  I still had roads out my way with packed snow and ice for about 2 weeks.  Was crazy.

Same here! I'm way out in the county. A plow came through after about 6-7 days. By that point the roads were packed down into solid ice. The plow literally did nothing to it. Was about 9-10 days until the ice melted enough to be safer to travel.

[Reb]

4 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Nothing has changed my mind yet on mixing issues for areas south of I81 in East TN. Still thinking 1-2'' max for those areas assuming slush doesnt wash most away like last year.  

Stick to hurricanes and I’ll take my 3-6” 

[Scottie16]

I think theres an error on the NAM that run. Temperature warms up in the lower half of ETN but mid to north ga stays well below freezing.


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[dwagner88]

Just now, Scottie16 said:

I think theres an error on the NAM that run. Temperature warms up in the lower half of ETN but mid to north ga stays well below freezing.


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That is actually possible. There is some CAD at play.

[ShawnEastTN]

2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

That is actually possible. There is some CAD at play.

Much more common than not actually.  Terrain and microclimates makes everything so much more interesting in this part of the world.

[Scottie16]

RGEM enters the Chat


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[Carvers Gap]

12z RGEM is having none of what the 12z NAM was cooking up....might even be light on the precip.  Similar run to 6z but qpf cut is my guess.

[Carvers Gap]

12z ICON is a tick south and less qpf, but the same general storm.  That NAM run is probably going to be on the far northwest range of options.  I won't call it an outlier yet as the 12z suite isn't completed, but sure likes like it will be.  We need qpf to quit being reduced which is the off-and-on trend since last night.

[AMZ8990]

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z RGEM is having none of what the 12z NAM was cooking up....might even be light on the precip.  Similar run to 6z but qpf cut is my guess.

We haven't discussed this as a possibility, but the convection along the gulf could also be a culprit in reducing QPF for our area.  Wouldn't be the first time. 

Just throwing this out there.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

East TN guys look at your snow map after seeing the mentions of less QPF and then panic before realizing the run hasn't completed yet and it's at least still light snow over our area at 64.  lol

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

We haven't discussed this as a possibility, but the convection along the gulf could also be a culprit in reducing QPF for our area.  Wouldn't be the first time. 

Just throwing this out there.

I thought about that.  I have been looking for it.  That will definitely hurt the gravy train.  Was it there on this RGEM run?  I started looking at 6z on all modeling and didn't see a ton.  But that surely might be a culprit.  Conversely, if it isn't there....we get the NAM.

[Scottie16]

I thought about that.  I have been looking for it.  That will definitely hurt the gravy train.  Was it there on this RGEM run?  I started looking at 6z on all modeling and didn't see a ton.  But that surely might be a culprit.  Conversely, if it isn't there....we get the NAM.

Looked like the RGEM lost moisture on the front end.


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[Carvers Gap]

For the 12z short range lunch menu, I am gonna roll with a blend of the 3k NAM for amounts and the RGEM track.  I think the track is probably right on the RGEM, but it is undergoing its qpf.  The 12k NAM.....isn't allowed to hang out with us today.  

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Looked like the RGEM lost moisture on the front end.


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Been a pretty consistent trend on modeling since the 18z Euro washed out last night.  However....it would not surprise me to see this amp up and jog north a bit on that model at the last minute.  In NE TN we are still 48 hours out.  More than once I have had a storm add to its qpf on modeling when it finally gets into the eastern Plains.  Models kind of ebb and flow.  I still use ensembles at this range because of that.  Trends on short range modeling are generally a tick south with less qpf.  I would suspect that trend south stops at 0z tonight or 6z tomorrow.  Just a hunch.  I would not want to bullseye right now.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is rolling.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS appears to hold serve....nearly identical run.  That is what we want to see.

[kvskelton]

32 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

East TN guys look at your snow map after seeing the mentions of less QPF and then panic before realizing the run hasn't completed yet and it's at least still light snow over our area at 64.  lol

Guilty as charged! 

[bearman]

46 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Last year was wild!!!  For me it's impacts were very near the Blizzard of 93 because the duration of effects lingering.  I still had roads out my way with packed snow and ice for about 2 weeks.  Was crazy.

I have lived in the valley for my entire life, from Cleveland to Knoxville and last year was the longest duration snow and Ice impact event that I can remember, at least in the center valley low elevation areas that tend to melt very quickly.  The roads just remained snow and ice covered for a very long amount of time in areas that were generally in the past the first to melt. 

[Bigbald]

GFS big dog run for the forum when Kuchera 

[Carvers Gap]

@tnweathernutconvection may indeed be the culprit w/ the Canadian products.  Pretty easy to see over SE TX and Louisiana.  Shuts down the fetch.

[1234snow]

We haven't discussed this as a possibility, but the convection along the gulf could also be a culprit in reducing QPF for our area.  Wouldn't be the first time. 
Just throwing this out there.

You are right. Convection along the Gulf coast has robbed us before with moisture transport.

[Carvers Gap]

Weather model releases across my platforms has slowed to a crawl or ceased.

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Weather model releases across my platforms has slowed to a crawl or ceased.

The Canadian suite has had it particularly rough.

[TellicoWx]

For those in the southern valley, while there is every the slightest warm nose...it barely breaks the 0 line and only for a brief distance. Think for that run you could tack another 1-2 on the totals for Sharpy reading too much into it. Looks more like a wet snow sounding imo.

[Daniel Boone]

51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@tnweathernutconvection may indeed be the culprit w/ the Canadian products.  Pretty easy to see over SE TX and Louisiana.  Shuts down the fetch.

Hopefully wrong but, does happen. If the Low intensifies enough adequate moisture should still make it North. That along with the GL phasing Lp carrying moisture already within should still support at least a probable 3-6" Snowfall in the Great Valley.

Without Storms along Gulf robbing moisture transport we could be looking at a Valley wide 6-10" with a lolipop of a foot imo. . 

     The Blizzard in '93, '96 etc had Storms all along the Gulf before it's adjacent front passed those area's and Heavy Snow stiill streamed well ahead of them. Of course, their strength and dynamics were through the roof but, strong enough pull,lift and internal moisture can still work with a decent phasing System as well.

[dwagner88]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

For those in the southern valley, while there is every the slightest warm nose...it barely breaks the 0 line and only for a brief distance. Think for that run you could tack another 1-2 on the totals for Sharpy reading too much into it. Looks more like a wet snow sounding imo.

100% agreed. That warm nose is only going to be a problem if the precip dies out as the storm moves to the east. 

[ShawnEastTN]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

we could be looking at a Valley wide 6-10" with a lolipop of a foot imo. . 

This is what I suspect will be the final result for the majority of folks.