1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Greyhound]

When storms roll into the continent north of Vancouver, there just isn't much up there.  The southern systems over the eastern continental US get sampled well, even off shore.  Systems north of Vancouver give modeling fits at times.  I wonder if the data was sparse, and what data went into modeling showed a weaker storm...in reality it showed a blind spot.  OR it could just have a weaker vortex.  Hopefully, we continue to see amounts rebound today E TN.  6z was a good start!

Definitely!! We went to Southeast Alaska in October and I was surprised at how little radar stations were available in that area and western Canada. And most of the time the ones I could see didn’t seem to cover a large area.


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[Carvers Gap]

School systems need to vey wary on Friday especially.  With the ground already frozen, there is NO grace time when precip starts - meaning streets probably aren't going to take some time to cool off before sticking.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Definitely!! We went to Southeast Alaska in October and I was surprised at how little radar stations were available in that area and western Canada. And most of the time the ones I could see didn’t seem to cover a large area.


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Yep.  I want to make that trip!  They have buoys, satellites, and some defense stuff up there, but nothing like 1000s of daily outgoing flights along the western US.  It is a blindspot, and has wrecked havoc on more than one weather model when it hits that spot.  

[Reb]

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Reb said:

Frozen ground to start with is a rarity!

[Kasper]

I got tickled at WVLT this morning, they are definitely trying to downplay, 2-3 area wide

[Carvers Gap]

I thought the 6z Euro was a decent improvement.  

[matt9697]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

School systems need to vey wary on Friday especially.  With the ground already frozen, there is NO grace time when precip starts - meaning streets probably aren't going to take some time to cool off before sticking.  

Took my nephew to school this am, Sumner County in TN; he said they sent a note home yesterday to parents advising them to have a way to come pick up their kids on Friday. They evidently plan on starting the day at least. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z NAM looks like it has plenty of juice through 48.

[ShawnEastTN]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

School systems need to vey wary on Friday especially.  With the ground already frozen, there is NO grace time when precip starts - meaning streets probably aren't going to take some time to cool off before sticking.  

THIS!!!  This trips people up frequently when we've been in the freezer before a storm moves in.  People automatically think the beginning of a storm won't be bad there will be some melting and I'll have time.  When it's been this cold before a storm moves it it trips up so many people that every flake sticks and the roads become very bad very quickly.  This caused a lot of issues in last January's storm.  I always call these storms that move in while we are in the deep freeze a "northern snowstorm" since no melting takes place even on roads.  Very different from our typical southern snow because it doesn't take long for snowpack on the roads.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM is trying to bring in some mixing issues I 40 south

[fountainguy97]

Yeah this is fun. Lol

[tnweathernut]

Not sure if it's speed or...........?  12Z NAM has the low about 100-150 miles northeast of its low position from 4 runs ago.  It's been trending further northeast each run.  

[Reb]

Just now, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah this is fun. Lol

Dang, 2024 redux. I’ll pass lol. I got 3 inches in Seymour and I could literally see from my back porch down Chapman highway where the 12” line was

[TellicoWx]

12z NAM is a hard pass for me lol. Definitive warm nose moving up the valley...but NAM likes to overamp, hopefully case here.

[fountainguy97]

3km much better. Wouldn't trust it at this range though.

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah this is fun. Lol

Stop that, Ryan.......  We need to will this one to NOT do this to us..  lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, was also just about to post the 3km was not nearly as warm nosey. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah this is fun. Lol

The good thing is that it is the NAM at range.  Modeling is still just all over the place with the phase.  That said, we have seen the same pattern as the Sunday event.  It went way northwest, came way southeast, and trended back to the middle.  This had a lot of juice from the word "go" on modeling.   It is kind of the antitheses of the 18z Euro.  Started off either juiced or not, and then perpetuated it.  

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

12z NAM is a hard pass for me lol. Definitive warm nose moving up the valley...but NAM likes to overamp, hopefully case here.

It was odd because even though it had a trend early for the low to be more northeast, the low track was a weakening low that eventually made its way ESE over FL for a time........  before moving NE.  Not going to happen.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3km:

 

12km:

[ShawnEastTN]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

3km:

 

12km:

I could buy a brief period of sleet, I don't buy the freezing rain.  Think mostly it's NAM being NAM with its amping.  3k is more believable to me but still overdone on mixing.

[tnweathernut]

9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

3km much better. Wouldn't trust it at this range though.

The good news is, this is probably the best position (board wide) we have been in since we have started this forum.  We take this setup all day every day and twice on Sunday.  It's exactly why we were beating the drum 10 days ago when the ensembles were showing this period as a legit one to watch.  It's like we have the All Star team on the field and our .300+ power hitter at the plate with the bases loaded.  Good spot to be in for most in here.

[tnweathernut]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, was also just about to post the 3km was not nearly as warm nosey. 

New technical term, I like it.  "Warm Nosey".    Going to use that one from now on.    

[Scottie16]

Early start time as well. Enters the lower Valley around 6:00AM.


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[Scottie16]

FV3 looks good for the forum.


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[Knoxtron]

I recall last years night event kept forecasting a change over to freezing rain in low 20 degree temps at my house following the snow... and it actually did! Strangest feeling in the world for it to be 23, stop snowing heavily, and flip to pure freezing rain. Froze my camera lense cap immediately 

 

And we didn't leave our house for 13 days... 

[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, Knoxtron said:

I recall last years night event kept forecasting a change over to freezing rain in low 20 degree temps at my house following the snow... and it actually did! Strangest feeling in the world for it to be 23, stop snowing heavily, and flip to pure freezing rain. Froze my camera lense cap immediately 

 

And we didn't leave our house for 13 days... 

I've seen that happen with freezing drizzle down here before. Most recently in 2011. We had 7 inches of powdery snow then a few hours of freezing drizzle with temps in the low 20's. It made the snow very resistant to melting.

[ShawnEastTN]

2 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

I recall last years night event kept forecasting a change over to freezing rain in low 20 degree temps at my house following the snow... and it actually did! Strangest feeling in the world for it to be 23, stop snowing heavily, and flip to pure freezing rain. Froze my camera lense cap immediately 

 

And we didn't leave our house for 13 days... 

Last year was wild!!!  For me it's impacts were very near the Blizzard of 93 because the duration of effects lingering.  I still had roads out my way with packed snow and ice for about 2 weeks.  Was crazy.

[matt9697]

Latest NAM looks great for my neck of the woods!