1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Reb said:

Euro is a bit better vs 18z

Yes, around .10 qpf more for most that run vs 18z. 

[John1122]

The EPS also had more QPF/better snow mean. We're about to the end of their use though. 

[John1122]

BNA joins MEG with a winter storm watch across it's entire CWA for 4-7 inches, with isolated 8 inch amounts.

[John1122]

NAM is coming in more robust than the 12z suite.

[Runman292]

MRX has made it official. The entire state is under a Winter Storm Watch. 3-7 inches mentioned in their watch.

[John1122]

Took a step north in the Western 2/3rds of the forum area. Hopefully that's the start of a trend back towards a better northern edge of the precip field.

[Mrwolf1972]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Morristown TN

333 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

 

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO

SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...

 

.Snow is expected to spread into the Tennessee Valley and southern

Appalachian region Friday morning. Snow will continue through the

afternoon and evening, then taper off early Saturday morning.

Several inches of snow are expected, potentially causing significant

travel impacts.

 

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-

006-008-082115-

/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0002.250110T1500Z-250111T1200Z/

Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-

Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest

Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-

Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane-

Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-

North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-

McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-

West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-

Including the cities of Big Spring, White Oak, Loudon,

Huntsville, Monteagle, Bearden, Russellville, Old Cumberland,

Arthur, Dunlap, Springdale, Bullet Creek, Tasso, Sevierville,

Unicoi, Castlewood, Wise, Royal Blue, Evanston, Palio, Spring

City, Fincastle, Andrews, Athens, Harrogate-Shawanee, Norton,

Hayesville, Cleveland, Clinton, Hampton, South Pittsburg, Norma,

Sharps Chapel, Morristown, Bristol VA, Coker Creek, Sneedville,

Kyles Ford, Old Washington, Mount Crest, Cades Cove, Eagle

Furnace, South Holston Dam, Shooting Creek, Pine Orchard, Cagle,

Coeburn, Topton, Grandview, Kingsport, Kingston, Haletown

(Guild), Cedar Creek, Slick Rock, Smokey Junction, Brasstown,

Harriman, Conasauga, Big Stone Gap, Doeville, Lebanon, Ducktown,

Caryville, Lone Oak, Unaka, Erwin, Clairfield, Big South Fork

National, Laurel Bloomery, Chattanooga, Hiltons, Hansonville,

Dandridge, Howard Quarter, Signal Mountain, Oak Ridge, Bybee,

Marble, Lone Mountain, Fairview, Bradbury, Murphy, Alpha, High

Point, Evensville, Whitwell, Johnson City, Jasper, Neva, Newport,

Happy Valley, Appalachia, Harrisburg, Dayton, Petros, Melvine,

Dentville, Benhams, Citico, Lookout Mountain, Turtletown,

Tusquitee, Martin Springs, Rosedale, Hiawasse Dam, Sweetwater,

Knoxville, McMahan, Jefferson City, Cartwright, Greeneville,

Shady Valley, Rose Hill, Mooresburg, Kodak, Pigeon Forge,

Sandlick, Bean Station, Limestone Cove, Etowah, Alcoa, Strawberry

Plains, Maynardville, Benton, Pikeville, Chestnut Hill, Brayton,

Madisonville, Rockwood, La Follette, Oliver Springs, Norris Lake,

Elkmont, Parksville, Maryville, Big Frog Mountain, Violet,

Oneida, Honaker, Abingdon, Elk Valley, Jellico, Trade, Hartford,

Pardee, Elizabethton, Bristol TN, Clear Water, Luttrell,

Archville, Gatlinburg, Seymour, White Pine, Lake Forest, Powells

Crossroads, Mountain City, Paulette, Treadway, Lenoir City,

Elgin, Reliance, and Dye

333 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 /233 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025/

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and

  7 inches possible.

 

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, East Tennessee, and

  southwest Virginia.

 

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions

  could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely

necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter

storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,

booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.

Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help

you survive in case you become stranded.

 

[John1122]

0z Euro Ai increased qpf by about .1 most areas. 

[Runman292]

MRX's AFD is mentioning a potential for even higher snow amounts than the watch indicates.

[TellicoWx]

Just woke up and kinda surprised...figured MRX would hold until 12z runs at earliest. Also happy to see RGEM loaded...know it struggled somewhat this last storm but ice usually isn't it's thing. One of my favorite models in winter for MBY, just seems to do a decent job here usually.

[Uncle Nasty]

I need to start going to bed earlier. The models seem to back off at night before I go to bed. I wake up for work to see an increase. When I read the forecast discussion, I had a "WOW" moment. I honestly woke up expecting to see less than 1" in the forecast with mostly a mix. Good stuff.

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[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

MRX's AFD is mentioning a potential for even higher snow amounts than the watch indicates.

"In my experience, I have often seen these synoptically-driven events over perform the model snow amounts, and given the expected thermodynamic profiles and QG forcing, snowfall rates could be quite heavy at times. Amounts above the forecast range would not be surprising, but we are still over 48 hours from the start of the event, with plenty of time to fine tune the amounts."

 

 

Almost fell outta my bed lol

[John1122]

ICON increased totals by around an inch forum wide basically vs 0z. 

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

I need to start going to bed earlier. The models seem to back off at night before I go to bed. I wake up for work to see an increase. When I read the forecast discussion, I had a "WOW" moment. I honestly woke up expecting to see less than 1" in the forecast with mostly a mix. Good stuff.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
 

Be like me and just stay awake 24/7 during snow season. 

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Just woke up and kinda surprised...figured MRX would hold until 12z runs at earliest. Also happy to see RGEM loaded...know it struggled somewhat this last storm but ice usually isn't it's thing. One of my favorite models in winter for MBY, just seems to do a decent job here usually.

The RGEM was pretty good here with that. Much better than the NAM which had no frozen here. I got .2 ice and I think the rgem had .18 here 24 hrs out. 

[Runman292]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

"In my experience, I have often seen these synoptically-driven events over perform the model snow amounts, and given the expected thermodynamic profiles and QG forcing, snowfall rates could be quite heavy at times. Amounts above the forecast range would not be surprising, but we are still over 48 hours from the start of the event, with plenty of time to fine tune the amounts."

 

 

Almost fell outta my bed lol

I know. Morristown Mets usually aren't that aggressive when talking about snow amounts, lol.

[Runman292]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Be like me and just stay awake 24/7 during snow season. 

That is basically me as well. I don't sleep when a winter storm is close.

[Uncle Nasty]

Be like me and just stay awake 24/7 during snow season. 

I would if I didn't have to wake every morning at 3:45 to drag myself into VW. We moved to Ooltewah in June of 2016. Biggest snow was February 2020. 3 inches at 8am that was completely melted off by noon. Add all other snows together, we "might" have a 2-3" total in 8 years. We're due.

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[Uncle Nasty]

Here's a good read from the NWS in Peachtree City. The wording looks like they did a collaboration with Morristown and Birmingham offices.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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[Scottie16]

Think we will see Winter Storm Warnings tonight. Knoxville south to the border looks to be in the prime area of receiving the highest totals. 48 hours out. Thread will be HAWT today.


.

[Reb]

MRX posted this.
 

Also, GFS upped the totals with the 06z run for most of the state.

[Knoxtron]

14 minutes ago, Reb said:

MRX posted this.
 

Also, GFS upped the totals with the 06z run for most of the state.

I'll take it, nice little bullseye of 6-8 right over me south of pikeville! 

 

06z Euro up another 0.1 inches of precip this run... 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Man I'm glad things started to trend back north, I checked the models occasionally when I woke up overnight and just before I went to sleep and saw those south ticks. 

I was about ready to make up some cope with the old RAOB network weenie rule and claim the main shortwave had been soundable, but had just dropped south of the network.

Or that the N. Hemisphere satellite info always looks kind of janky and so models were having trouble resolving the northern shortwave. 

Or try to find the Alex Boreham data that shows RAOB data vs. models.

 

But instead I'll just show this nice tropical connection:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro looks similar to 0z to me, but with a bit a smidge more .qpf over the ever important (to me) Cumberland plateau and eastern TN areas:

6z -> 0z 

pay no mind to that slight decrease over western TN. 

[zippity]

Winter Storm Watch issued for north AL: "For 4-6" of snow across the entire region (with higher totals up to 8" possible)."

I hope predictions are as optimistic for the rest of the Tennessee Valley. 

[Reb]

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Man I'm glad things started to trend back north, I checked the models occasionally when I woke up overnight and just before I went to sleep and saw those south ticks. 

I was about ready to make up some cope with the old RAOB network weenie rule and claim the main shortwave had been soundable, but had just dropped south of the network.

Or that the N. Hemisphere satellite info always looks kind of janky and so models were having trouble resolving the northern shortwave. 

Or try to find the Alex Boreham data that shows RAOB data vs. models.

 

But instead I'll just show this nice tropical connection:

When storms roll into the continent north of Vancouver, there just isn't much up there.  The southern systems over the eastern continental US get sampled well, even off shore.  Systems north of Vancouver give modeling fits at times.  I wonder if the data was sparse, and what data went into modeling showed a weaker storm...in reality it showed a blind spot.  OR it could just have a weaker vortex.  Hopefully, we continue to see amounts rebound today E TN.  6z was a good start!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

SREF makes it look like the NAM will come in amped. I guess w'll see soon. 

[housemtnTN]

Nice little flurry in downtown knox right now. The ground is so frozen it's crunchy.

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

SREF makes it look like the NAM will come in amped. I guess w'll see soon. 

Looks like the isotherms are buckled a bit more in front of the storm on the 12z.  NE TN stays cold which is why this storm runs out of gas here....takes some time to saturate in addition to interference from the Smokies of the southern fetch.  But this should be good in western areas especially.