dwagner88 Posted yesterday at 03:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:14 AM It shifted south pretty significantly. Northern ATL suburbs got the heavier stuff shown across southern TN on the 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 AM Knew we needed @Stovepipe's mojo lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted yesterday at 03:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:18 AM 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The RGEM must be busted. Rumor has it...was so bad it already dove off the cliff lol jk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 03:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:18 AM The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 03:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:21 AM I expect the GFS to be weaker and south. It did the same for a run last year when the Euro put out the super weak solution I posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM I’m kicking the can down the road. Seems like it’s trending down with just enough time to trend back up. If it’s still weakening by 18z tomorrow, then kick rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:22 AM 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else. Not trusting that run…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted yesterday at 03:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:29 AM Models seesawing across the region. Beginning to feel less confident in anything decent for East TN. 2” if we are lucky. I just think mixing issues are going to show per usual. Hopefully we have enough room for another good opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted yesterday at 03:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:30 AM 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else. Checking 850s-700 moisture..almost exactly same...I'm stumped, unless it's a lift issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 03:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:35 AM Everything is moving faster too. It's arriving earlier and getting out of dodge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 03:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:39 AM It's rare to see ensembles with more QPF than the op but the Euro was and the ICON ensembles are pretty similar in QPF. Usually just by their nature of having to incorporate a few misses, they are drier than their ops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted yesterday at 03:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:50 AM Goofy nailing central AL...that's new 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM GFS continuing the theme of slashing QPF lol. Hopefully just a head fake but I have a feeling it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 03:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:59 AM GFS down about .10 across the board. Hopefully things stabilize. It makes no sense for a potent, deepening low to track along the gulf and for it to not produce more precip. If it was 35 degrees with bad 850s that same low strength/track would produce 1.5 inches of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted yesterday at 04:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:02 AM Wouldn't be winter weather chasing if there wasn't a couple head scratching runs in the last 72 hours before the storm. Everytime!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:04 AM I'm hoping to salvage 2-3 inches here. I think 40 and south will be okay for 3 to 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted yesterday at 04:11 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:11 AM 18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Goofy nailing central AL...that's new It might be the old south shift, before the shift back NW. Used to be able to count on those shifts in the last few days before a storm. Would sink south, then nudge back northward. Also Northern precip shield is always under modeled pretty much every time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted yesterday at 04:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:14 AM Hard to beat the track of the 0z cmc and 0z gfs for east tennessee, even if models are showing slightly lessening qpf at the moment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted yesterday at 04:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:16 AM Just now, Bigbald said: Hard to beat the track of the 0z cmc and 0z gfs for east tennessee, even if models are showing slightly lessening qpf at the moment. Agree completely!!! That track 9 times out of 10 pays dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted yesterday at 04:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:25 AM Did the 0z CMC run? I don't see it available on pivotal or tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFranklin88 Posted yesterday at 04:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:29 AM Feels like modeled qpf and snowfall in AR trended down earlier today and now significantly up in 0z suite. May not mean anything but an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:30 AM The GEFS joins the camp of ensembles with more qpf than the op. The snow mean is as good or better than 18z for some areas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted yesterday at 04:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:33 AM GEFS mean remains beefy, but the biggest amounts shifted from Chattanooga area to Arkansas and Memphis. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted yesterday at 04:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:48 AM Going to wait a couple runs, but after looking at the 500 maps..definitely going to temper expectations some. Not liking the way the northern stream interacts for the east..omega back to being a possible issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:51 AM The UKIE is light years better than it's 12z disaster that was the first shot fired in the bad runs today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:52 AM It wasn't great for mby but it nearly missed the whole forum at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:59 AM 8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Going to wait a couple runs, but after looking at the 500 maps..definitely going to temper expectations some. Not liking the way the northern stream interacts for the east..omega back to being a possible issue. These come north 95 percent of the time, and usually it's to our detriment. Hopefully it manages to in this case too, but for the better. If things are getting worse at this time tomorrow I'll have my towel in hand, ready to toss it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:24 AM Canadian finally ran and joined the less qpf camp. RGEM is running as well. I expect it will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 05:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:37 AM Canadian suite is slower like the others were. Every model is now about the same with QPF at 0z, euro pending. The hope is that they don't get any worse. It would still be a nice 3 to 5 inches for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted yesterday at 05:40 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:40 AM Euro is a bit better vs 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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