John1122 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago The 18z Euro was late with some northern stream energy. The other models drop it in across Oklahoma, the Euro dropped it in across Tennessee. The system comes out less organized/strong on the Euro and the 850 low is weak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 18z Euro was late with some northern stream energy. The other models drop it in across Oklahoma, the Euro dropped it in across Tennessee. The system comes out less organized/strong on the Euro and the 850 low is weak. The AI was good, though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The 18z Euro was late with some northern stream energy. The other models drop it in across Oklahoma, the Euro dropped it in across Tennessee. The system comes out less organized/strong on the Euro and the 850 low is weak. That makes sense on why it's qpf would be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Just now, ShawnEastTN said: That makes sense on why it's qpf would be lower. That northern stream is what causes it to dig. Otherwise, it is flat and pretty anemic. That piece of energy is part of the reason we saw those will swings from run to run. When it dug in over Oklahoma, it really pops the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The AI was good, though, right? It's better/sharper at 500 than the 18z op was but not as good as the GFS was for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's better/sharper at 500 than the 18z op was but not as good as the GFS was for instance. Yeah, I think it is probably just doing its normal "late to the party" move as you noted earlier. We have had a good mix of models either going NW and SE. I bet we see a northern jog at some point during the next 24 hours. Really, I think it was just a missed phase as you also noted. @Daniel Boone, time to get in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago The NAM looks like it's going to be a pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago NAM is amped up. May be mixing issues for some here. Definitely for the gulf coast states. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That northern stream is what causes it to dig. Otherwise, it is flat and pretty anemic. That piece of energy is part of the reason we saw those will swings from run to run. When it dug in over Oklahoma, it really pops the storm. Yeah I'm not great at reading upper level charts. Something I need to learn more of, I can sniff out most pieces but some elude me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Southern border counties definitely look to be getting Nam'd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago So far the NAM is warmer with a bit more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Southern border counties definitely look to be getting Nam'dTellico looks to be getting Hammered @HR72. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Southern border counties definitely look to be getting Nam'd The 0z NAM held serve and then some. Good to see it stay consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago At this range, I don't mind seeing the NAM a little jacked up. That is its bias at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago The 0z NAM held serve and then some. Good to see it stay consistent. Energy transfer scared me a bit at first.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago I actually still think that's a very low QPF output for the area with a deepening low on that track. It vastly improved the precip shield into Kentucky, tossing qpf up into Ohio when it was dry at 18z over northern Kentucky, but it didn't increase QPF as much in Tennessee. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Energy transfer scared me a bit at first. . I forgot it was NAM time, and just pulled up the kuchera map. I didn't even know to be worried. I think we got all the bad mojo out of the way tonight...just flushed all of it at once with the 18z Euro and Vol basketball. Ain't nobody could hit nothin' either on weather models or in Gainesville, FL, about 6:00PM. LOL. Something had to start going in the net at some point. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I actually still think that's a very low QPF output for the area with a deepening low on that track. It vastly improved the precip shield into Kentucky, tossing qpf up into Ohio when it was dry at 18z over northern Kentucky, but it didn't increase QPF as much in Tennessee. So you think room to grow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: I forgot it was NAM time, and just pulled up the kuchera map. I didn't even know to be worried. I think we got all the bad mojo out of the way tonight...just flushed all of it at once with the 18z Euro and Vol basketball. Ain't nobody could hit nothin' either on weather models or in Gainesville, FL, about 6:00PM. LOL. Something had to start going in the net at some point. Well UGA just beat KY. Hopefully my Tide don’t start shooting air balls. The SEC is LOADED this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: So you think room to grow? I think so with that path and a deepening storm. It increased QPF in northern Kentucky by .2/.3 in some spots through 78, but only by around .1 in Tennessee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Just now, Matthew70 said: Well UGA just beat KY. Hopefully my Tide don’t start shooting air balls. The SEC is LOADED this year. You aren't kidding. It is the best I have ever seen it. Hopefully the width and breadth of this snowstorm spans Athens to Lexington and Fayetteville to Asheville. We needed that previously modeled snowstorm in Gainesville tonight. Where is the GFS when you need it?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think so with that path and a deepening storm. It increased QPF in northern Kentucky by .2/.3 in some spots through 78, but only by around .1 in Tennessee. Yep. I tend to agree. Hopefully, we see TN gets some more precip on modeling overnight and tomorrow. That would be a great trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago The FV3 was really wound up at hr 60. Snow was reaching East TN and it was at 1004mb south of Louisiana. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago The ICON is a little more beefy in Arkansas than it was at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago The FV3 was really wound up at hr 60. Snow was reaching East TN and it was at 1004mb south of Louisiana. I was just looking at that model. I had forgotten about it. Here is the Hr 60 panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago A bit better in West Tennessee at 66 vs 72 at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Just now, 1234snow said: I was just looking at that model. I had forgotten about it. Here is the Hr 60 panel. I can't remember if it or the late Rufus was supposed to replace the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Unfortunately, the ICON is weakening as it heads east. Good bit less QPF vs 18z over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago ICON cut in half here Not quite half...squeezed some out toward end...cut 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago The RGEM must be busted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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