John1122 Posted Tuesday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:21 PM The RGEM was lesser by a bit than 12z. It pretty much has the same amount of QPF as 12z but with 6 more hours of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted Tuesday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:22 PM That would be incredible. I measured almost exactly a foot here the following morning. Back to back snow events like that for knox county I believe would be historic!It was an amazing time! Back to back events would be Epic!. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM 7 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: I bet we see similar amounts to what we saw during last Januarys epic snow. 8-12 area wide! . All we need is WVLT saying 1-2" and very little travel issues like last January and it'll for sure happen! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:25 PM RGEM: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM 11 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: All we need is WVLT saying 1-2" and very little travel issues like last January and it'll for sure happen! I'm still salty at their forecast for that storm as I know someone who believed them, then needed rescuing. Then they topped it off after the storm never acknowledging the extent of impacts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: RGEM: That looks like a repeat of Jan 2024 to me. Big pass. I really don't want to watch it sleet again. So far it's just the Canadian models that see the sleet on the southern periphery. Everything else is showing all snow, and some are big hits. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:38 PM 2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: That looks like a repeat of Jan 2024 to me. Big pass. I really don't want to watch it sleet again. So far it's just the Canadian models that see the sleet on the southern periphery. Everything else is showing all snow, and some are big hits. Had to really suck for folks in Chattanooga. I know Northern Hamilton County in the valley still had folks trapped on back roads 6 days later. Same here in Meigs county. To be that close to the snow really stings. I think that line this time will be south of Chatty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM RGEM sounding for Chatt...no signs of downsloping or WAA. Column is below freezing entire way. Problem is being dry slotted from the return off the gulf kills the DGZ. Same thing the globals were showing yesterday morning. Being at range for the RGEM nor surprised, but definitely something to keep an eye own over next 24 hrs. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM GFS looks to be nailing N MS, N. AL..had some Barney purple rates show up for a second (2"+/hr) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM GFS locking in 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM 41 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: All we need is WVLT saying 1-2" and very little travel issues like last January and it'll for sure happen! If I did my job as poorly as they do, well here’s to unemployment 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted Tuesday at 10:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:07 PM It is truly amazing how many ways their are to get screwed when it comes to snow in the Valley. I have lived all my life in the Great valley I am now 62. I remember as a child many surprise snows living in Cleveland that were never forecast and only a few that were forecast that did not come to fruition. I have lived in Knoxville the last 15 years and been surprised how that has seemed to reverse. Maybe its my memory but boy how complicated forecasting is for the Valley. 17 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: RGEM sounding for Chatt...no signs of downsloping or WAA. Column is below freezing entire way. Problem is being dry slotted from the return off the gulf kills the DGZ. Same thing the globals were showing yesterday morning. Being at range for the RGEM nor surprised, but definitely something to keep an eye own over next 24 hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Tuesday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:10 PM RGEM is hate speech, lol! I get what it's showing. Thankfully the American 18Z models are opposite. Both the GFS and NAM partial thickness situation improves on 18Z runs. The 850-700 mb thickness, always my concern, drops as the core WAA isentropic lift comes through East Tenn. That's exactly what the Dr. ordered! I want lift, dynamic cooling, and no warm nose BS 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM 2 minutes ago, bearman said: It is truly amazing how many ways their are to get screwed when it comes to snow in the Valley. I have lived all my life in the Great valley I am now 62. I remember as a child many surprise snows living in Cleveland that were never forecast and only a few that were forecast that did not come to fruition. I have lived in Knoxville the last 15 years and been surprised how that has seemed to reverse. Maybe its my memory but boy how complicated forecasting is for the Valley. Yeah the microclimates in the valley makes forecasting in this area complicated. Remember seeing a long time ago where NWS acknowledged MRX as being one of the most difficult jobs. I give those folks crap from time to time, but couldn't pay me enough to sit in that position (hence why I never went thru with that profession when I left the Army lol). 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM We would like to welcome about the 18z UKMET as our next passenger. Out to 66, definitely is north with further juice. The 18z run only goes out that far, but it appears to be well on its way to joining the others. We will know at 0z. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM Biggest issue with the MRX CWA is that Chattanooga and southwest Virginia might as well be on different continents in a borderline temperature event. It's hard for me to imagine all that snow up there when it's partly cloudy and 42 here. Then I'm sure it's hard for the WFO to imagine Chatty getting blanked when they've got 2 inches and still going at the office, and SW Va is pushing 5 inches. That's not even getting into the frustrating microclimates. Typical borderline temps make everything worse! Difference this time is cold air should be in place. A few hours above freezing is acceptable if we drop back below 32. Just nice we're not sitting in Chattanooga starting at 45 degrees and stuck with downslope from 7 out of 8 directions. Friday is going to be so nice. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:28 PM 5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Biggest issue with the MRX CWA is that Chattanooga and southwest Virginia might as well be on different continents in a borderline temperature event. It's hard for me to imagine all that snow up there when it's partly cloudy and 42 here. Then I'm sure it's hard for the WFO to imagine Chatty getting blanked when they've got 2 inches and still going at the office, and SW Va is pushing 5 inches. That's not even getting into the frustrating microclimates. Typical borderline temps make everything worse! Difference this time is cold air should be in place. A few hours above freezing is acceptable if we drop back below 32. Just nice we're not sitting in Chattanooga starting at 45 degrees and stuck with downslope from 7 out of 8 directions. Friday is going to be so nice. My brother in Hixson has a considerably different weather life than I do. Always way hotter in summer, and usually around 8-10 degrees warmer in winter. It's 24 here right now and 32 at his house. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM Good representation of the warmer air issues aloft (I think haha). Chatts got a pretty big pocket of greater than 0C temps about 900-1000' feet up Not sure how relevant this is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:42 PM 3 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Good representation of the warmer air issues aloft (I think haha). Chatts got a pretty big pocket of greater than 0C temps about 900-1000' feet up Not sure how relevant this is 900 to 1000 foot seems too shallow to me to cause much issue. Think any time with that would be brief as dynamic cooling would also likely be at play cooling the entire column. Just my thoughts anyway, could be wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:46 PM I think it's super possible Chattanooga could end up being the place to be. Near the southern end of swaths of snow like this can frequently be the heaviest axis of snow with greatest qpf/precip rates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted Tuesday at 10:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:59 PM Well I sit on a hilltop 2 miles north of the GA state line at about 1000’ in elevation. I’m quite optimistic at this point. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM 18z GEFS(edit typo...I had GFS) has the snow axis moved about 150mi south. Looks very much like the 12z GEPS ensemble. Looks very much like the EPS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM Just now, dwagner88 said: Well I sit on a hilltop 2 miles north of the GA state line at about 1000’ in elevation. I’m quite optimistic at this point. That settles it. Party at D-wags crib. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:06 PM The northern stream piece to this puzzle is just now coming on shore along the northern Canadian Pac coast and southern Alaskan coast. The last of the "big" changes would occur by roughly 6z tomorrow as the last of that onshore data gets ingested. Honestly, it is pretty amazing it didn't move much today. I suspect it is pretty well sampled now, but that might be part of the reason the 18z GEFS ticked south. My guess is this trends a hair south for about 12-24 more hours and then begins to lift back north. Been going on all winter w/ storms. The real interesting thing right now as deterministic runs increase snow totals....are ensembles now playing catchup? The 18z GEFS is starting to reflect deterministic totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:08 PM Perfect angle to avoid the downsloping in the NE areas. Not sure why the GFS has to do that to McMinn Co to break up the pinks 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 11:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:15 PM 18z Euro is running. Looks steady out to 24...might be 10miles further north - maybe. I can barely see a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM 18z Euro seems to have more precip early in the run...out to 45. Noticeable tick north(not big, but noticeable...maybe 50 miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted Tuesday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:20 PM NWS took away the hazardous outlook. Believe we will see WSW tomorrow for all of the area. They also stated in the latest briefing they believe we can see high amounts due to increased amounts with almost every new model run. It’s why they haven’t put a map out yet. They honestly were zoned in on 2-3 but now they’re thinking 5-7 area wide. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:20 PM Out to 78...nice little storm. It's precip shield is a tick south(go figure). No mixing issues on this from for Chattanooga that I can see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted Tuesday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:21 PM 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: Perfect angle to avoid the downsloping in the NE areas. Not sure why the GFS has to do that to McMinn Co to break up the pinks This upsets me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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