John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM 1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said: Widespread snowfall still coming down over most of the state at the 84hr mark on the RGEM, beefy run for sure. It was really bringing the QPF with it. Most other models have slid SE today but the RGEM/Canadian haven't. The Euro AI was already there where the others are heading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:27 PM 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It was really bringing the QPF with it. Most other models have slid SE today but the RGEM/Canadian haven't. The Euro AI was already there where the others are heading. AI trended SE or more like the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Tuesday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:30 PM GEFS looks like it's almost locked at solution...only 1 or 2 odd members left. As far as SLP placement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:30 PM 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: AI trended SE or more like the CMC? It's been in the flat camp for days but with a precip field that keeps growing north. I've went from .3 to .5 qpf on it since yesterday. It's heaviest snow axis is similar to the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM How is the NBM looking? That will entirely dictate the forecast/watches/warnings that are released. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:37 PM We seem to be sitting in as good a spot as we can be for a storm that starts in 72 hours for our forum area. Also, virtually all gulf systems seem to verify with a larger precip footprint than modeled and with more QPF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Tuesday at 04:38 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 04:38 PM Just now, John1122 said: We seem to be sitting in as good a spot as we can be for a storm that starts in 72 hours for our forum area. Also, virtually all gulf systems seem to verify with a larger precip footprint than modeled and with more QPF. It seems to be trending colder too. Models are picking up the snowpack to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:45 PM 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: We seem to be sitting in as good a spot as we can be for a storm that starts in 72 hours for our forum area. Also, virtually all gulf systems seem to verify with a larger precip footprint than modeled and with more QPF. Absolutely!!! One thing that is repeated probably over 95% of the time the extent of Northern precip shield is nearly always under done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM For the system that just passed the Euro had the follow totals at 00z Sunday. Knox .9 at the airport area. Actual total 1.09 Tri .66 actual .87 Chatt 1.02 actual 1.22 MBY 1.07 actual 1.8 Oak Ridge 1.05 actual 1.43 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:50 PM .1 to .2 QPF can be a big difference in snow totals, as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:04 PM There comes the UKIE with pain for mby and most of the board. I wouldn't be surprised if the EURO follows with something similar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Don’t have access to UKIE…what is it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM NBM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: There comes the UKIE with pain for mby and most of the board. I wouldn't be surprised if the EURO follows with something similar. Let's all agree to toss it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: There comes the UKIE with pain for mby and most of the board. I wouldn't be surprised if the EURO follows with something similar. The AI at 6z took the qpf shield south by about 30-40 miles i believe. Wondering if that is the start of a trend? The Euro has never been on board with this. It's been the model that loses the precip shield from the get go. It's either being stubborn or going to lead the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM Just now, Vol4Life said: Don’t have access to UKIE…what is it showing? Misses most of the board to the SE with basically less than 1 inch for anyone North of 40/West of 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:13 PM 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: Misses most of the board to the SE with basically less than 1 inch for anyone North of 40/West of 75. Thanks for the reply back…how has the UKIE performed lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Tuesday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:15 PM 9 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Don’t have access to UKIE…what is it showing? Just so you know, the ukmet is available for free on pivotal weather complete with at least 10:1 snowfall products https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:17 PM 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted Tuesday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:22 PM That is my worry that the shortwave is trending to be too flat and will miss us to the south. The trend is to have the northern vort not dig as much. The morning runs of the NAM, Canadians, ICON, GFS is where we want to keep the system. No mixing issues for the most part and a widespread snowfall. I remember last year’s January snowfall event windshield wipered during this timeframe with misses to the south and even to the north. Hopefully this storm will settle in for us like that one did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM The UKIE is in its own world. No other model is taking it across northern FL and out into the Atlantic off the FL coast. For now, I'd toss that run. JMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM Euro is looking better than the UKIE so far at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM 12z Euro looks slightly north of 6z and a little less robust at 57. We will call it Miller light. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:32 PM 12z Euro is gonna be just fine. It is kind a blend of all them. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM The EURO looks pretty close to the NBM (slightly more snow than the NBM). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM Pretty sure the UKMET tried to throw us a bone with this past Ohio system with a more southern run(late in the game as well) and ended up being incorrect. It is the southeast side of guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM 1.11 system trend scorecard 12z CMC was a tick south. GFS was a double tick south. UK headed to Cuba. Euro is north. Folks, I am riding with the RGEM…unless it leaves me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Give me the 12z Canadian ensemble and let’s roll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM Look at the Vort,definite a better run that time compared the the 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM The 12z Euro is doing what the gfs did…one right after another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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