1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Hurricaneguy]

10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

GFS is locked in

Mixing issues East TN not as bad as the NAM but they are feeling good about it 

[fountainguy97]

This is a week of my station data. An airmass like this before a snow/ ice event is such a luxury. Now just need the storm to cooperate lol.

[jaxjagman]

9 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

Mixing issues East TN not as bad as the NAM but they are feeling good about it 

We was in a WSW several years ago,models didnt even so much of any WN and we ended up with all rain here

[John1122]

Rap bringing heavier totals into Mississippi. Maintains pretty well. The HRRR at 0z may be similar. 

 

[TellicoWx]

10 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

It is showing a warm surge at around 800 MB for about 3 hours across SE TN. This gets reflected in the snow maps. I think there is going to be a lot more sleet than snow south of 40.

GFS definitely stepped toward the NAM. That came close to being freezing rain more than sleet. 

[jaxjagman]

Nashville bumped the totals up since this morning here,they must feel pretty confident,more than i am anyways right now

Tonight

Snow showers likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 25. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[TellicoWx]

The 3 and 6 hour windows on the globals have almost reached the limit on their usefulness to pinpoint areas. HiRes soundings taking over the weighting.

[housemtnTN]

Snow in Memphis according to radar

[ShawnEastTN]

18z GFS Kuchera Snow and Freezing rain:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hot Springs, Arkansas:

[bearman]

6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

GFS definitely stepped toward the NAM. That came close to being freezing rain more than sleet. 

Oh Joy. When you were about to relax and feel good about the event.

[Icy Hot]

Kind of embarrassed to ask this question since I’ve lived here my whole life, but what exact area is MRX referring to when they say the southern Appalachian foothills?

[ShawnEastTN]

7 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

Kind of embarrassed to ask this question since I’ve lived here my whole life, but what exact area is MRX referring to when they say the southern Appalachian foothills?

Good question!  I don't even know if I'm right but I always assumed like Chilhowie, English, Starr, Bluff Mountain, English Mountain and Big Frog just to name a few, but essentially all the mountains that are just out in front of the main range.  Like foothills parkway for instance runs along that chain of mountains/foothills.  I could very well be wrong though always been an assumption of mine.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

Kind of embarrassed to ask this question since I’ve lived here my whole life, but what exact area is MRX referring to when they say the southern Appalachian foothills?

I would think they mean areas right up against the higher mts, Tellico Plains, Townsend, Newport, Cosby, Erwin and maybe even Bat Harbor. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

In upper East TN, maybe areas SE of highway 321 would be a good way to look at it? 

Maybe for southern east TN areas SE of highway 411 from Newport to Old Fort areas? 

[Vol4Life]

13 minutes ago, bearman said:

Oh Joy. When you were about to relax and feel good about the event.

Wonder what the difference was that run?  Was the GFS more amped @TellicoWx?

[gallopinggertie]

Happy for you guys! You folks get similar snowfall averages to where I live (Portland, Oregon). So even though it’s been a snowless winter here, I’m living vicariously through this storm, which looks like the best in a long time for your part of the country.

[AFranklin88]

UKIE with another good track - ups totals for most in east. Feels like everything meeting in that 4-8 range for Central Valley

[TellicoWx]

16 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Wonder what the difference was that run?  Was the GFS more amped @TellicoWx?

It didn't step all the way..there's always been a faint signal (why the totals along border have been higher on alot of the runs. It just hadn't keyed on that piece as much. We are in SE TN...it's always gonna come down to 4th and goal at the 1...down 6. Uncertainty up until last second and sometimes never does reach full agreement.

[matt9697]

42 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Nashville bumped the totals up since this morning here,they must feel pretty confident,more than i am anyways right now

Tonight

Snow showers likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 25. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Yea, we could have some issues with power if it is a wet snow that is for sure - not very often you see heavy snow forecasted for Nashville

[tnweathernut]

46 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

Kind of embarrassed to ask this question since I’ve lived here my whole life, but what exact area is MRX referring to when they say the southern Appalachian foothills?

Just look for Jeff’s map a little ways back.  Find the “finger”. lol

[tnweathernut]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:Finger.

 

Finger = Foothills. Wretched little devil……..

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Nashville bumped the totals up since this morning here,they must feel pretty confident,more than i am anyways right now

Tonight

Snow showers likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 25. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Can’t they just say snow instead of snow showers.  

[ShawnEastTN]

Nashville really did bump totals!! Most now 6-8"

[matt9697]

Just now, ShawnEastTN said:

Nashville really did bump totals!! Most now 6-8"

Should be a high impact storm; I think it was the 1970's that i remember big snow piles in grocery store parking lots days after the other snow had melted should be similar with this one. 

[dwagner88]

Any word about how things are progressing out west? Over/underperforming so far?

[nrgjeff]

I'd feel better if DFW had not changed to 33 and rain. Just happened to be following them since early week. This 546 line may bite us in the ass down in southeast Tennessee. It's just too high. Yeah GFS has WAA winning a little too much.

Nashville can relax now in my opinion. Lock it in 4 inches. Probably 6 and locally 8 in. Drier snow will help totals. Isentropic lift blasts northern Middle Tennessee without warming up too much aloft. 

Gonna give Tellico the medal for best sports metaphor. Esp. going into the CFB semis tonight. You know what? I think the analytics say go for it. Perfect!

1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

It didn't step all the way..there's always been a faint signal (why the totals along border have been higher on alot of the runs. It just hadn't keyed on that piece as much. We are in SE TN...it's always gonna come down to 4th and goal at the 1...down 6. Uncertainty up until last second and sometimes never does reach full agreement.

 

[John1122]

Is the OHX uptick from the NBM? WPC? Looks sort of like a RAP/HRRR/GFS weighted blend. 

[John1122]

Oddly, my point forecast just says "cloudy" tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

[BlunderStorm]

3 hours ago, BuCoVaWx said:

Dickenson and Buchanan counties are a part of Charleston WV NWS. They had talked about issuing advisory but changed their minds to Winter Storm Warning instead. They usually wait til the last minute to issue warnings down here.

Now, if only NWS Blacksburg would be willing to include Tazewell and Smyth counties in a WSW...  The microclimates usually shift crossing between the Tennessee and New River valleys.