Reb Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Let’s see what the ICON says. Not buying the NAM, at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Short range models at range....view at your own peril. LOL. The 0z NAM was basically WAA. That probably isn't right, but we'll see. Models have definitely been clear that foothills could have issues with downsloping, rain shadow, and just general "storm ran out of stream" issues. It should come as no surprise these characteristics are seen on each run. There is no reason to be overly frustrated about things you cannot control. It is what it is. I think we will see winter weather, but it bears repeating....we live in the sub tropics. It wants to rain here, and if it can find a way...it will. That said, let's get a look at the entire model suite before panicking. The good thing is that is January...and it wants to snow sometimes. The 0z NAM was juiced from the first frame - the very first hour. The southern and northern streams had far more energy. Could it be the system is better sampled now? Sure. But it is a classic model bias of the NAM. That said, a robust trend north on modeling can happen at this range. Time will tell. Just last night, the system looked entirely out of gas! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I think I'll blend Euro's thermals with GFS's qpf. Euro has been slowly catching up on QPF anyway. 24 hours the Euro has moved up greatly in qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM 3K dont show this wild scenario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM is fringing on ice storm warning criteria here. Very little snow shown. Very reminiscent of January 2024. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The next slide is even better. Just don’t look at it on a full stomach. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 .2 frames before.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Scottie16 said: . Hammer time! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Give me a tall, cool glass of ARW, please. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Scottie16 said: 2 frames before. . @Hurricaneguy hug this one! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Give me a tall, cool glass of ARW, please.🫡. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 55 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Mesoscale model that isnt even that good with severe that far out THIS! HRRR busts all the time on severe wx. Take it with a TINY piece of salt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 HRRR-“Hardly Recognizes Rain on Radar” is what I call it. I guess snow in this case. It can be good but there’s a reason most of its runs only go out 18hrs. It’s terrible beyond that and sometimes not good on current initialization. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 ARW. Pretty reliable little model that Jeff recommended years ago. I tend to look at it to keep steady. Hour 38 with two views - Ohio and GOM. You can see the moisture transport a little bit stuggling along the Ohio River. Now, go look at the convection along the GOM. It is cutting off the fetch. That is the main concern. That said, that is a really healthy, southern winter storm depicted there. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 This is where it goes at 42... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Yes the ARW and FV3 are in reasonable agreement and along the lines of thinking earlier today. NAM can do some weird stuff at 48-60 hours. The other two have their bad days also, but when two of three agree I'm not too worried about the outlier. Then of course the globals are still probably better until Thursday morning. I said I was done but I'm up watching Kansas. I need a KU come-back 2nd half, the globals to hold the line, and the ARW/FV3 to be right. Goodnight and think snow. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The 0z RGEM is running right now. Out to 45, pretty steady and nothing like the 0z 12k NAM. Might have jogged one county north vs two states. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 RGEM and ICON both look very solid 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 This is from last January when the NAM was about 48-60 hours out and it suddenly decided to have East Tennessee in the 50s in a dry slot after it made a jarring NW jump. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Really hoping to see some heavy snowfall rates from this system. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The 0z RGEM is running right now. Out to 45, pretty steady and nothing like the 0z 12k NAM. Might have jogged one county north vs two states. The gulf low is about 2 counties south of 18z lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 In addition to that crazy NAM run last year, the other models in the NAM nest didn't agree with it. Obviously it was badly wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 That ARW run winds up with 5-8" south of 40, but I don't think it's done snowing in NE TN yet at the end of the run. Still doesn't like Greene county all that much. Downsloping I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, John1122 said: This is from last January when the NAM was about 48-60 hours out and it suddenly decided to have East Tennessee in the 50s in a dry slot after it made a jarring NW jump. I might actually crap my pants if we get a repeat of last year. I would also be sad for the folks in the Chattanooga area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Emd of the run and still snowing inW/TN 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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