Hurricaneguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 00z HRRR horrible for East TN. Major mixing issues especially as the system exits. Not good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Ruh roh temp and moisture issues. We toss. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It brings the LP through Tn,wouldnt trust the HRRR that far out,it usually whiffs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Ruh roh temp and moisture issues. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Silas Lang said: Hope y'all like sleet! Yeah, it has the LP right on the other side of the Apps at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Silas Lang said: Hope y'all like sleet! Yeah, it has the LP right on the other side of the Apps at the end of the run. Mesoscale model that isnt even that good with severe that far out 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I'll be surprised if that HRRR run is correct at 48 hours. UT swings pretty wildly beyond hour 12 or so on it's 18 hour runs at times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, John1122 said: I'll be surprised if that HRRR run is correct at 48 hours. UT swings pretty wildly beyond hour 12 or so on it's 18 hour runs at times. Yeah hrrr is pretty horrible past 12 hrs for sure. Not putting any stock into it at all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah hrrr is pretty horrible past 12 hrs for sure. Not putting any stock into it at all No, but it is a perfect representation of the battle the mountain counties face a majority of the time when it comes to temps and precip in winter. Shows why we (usually) can’t have nice things. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM looks better so far,see what happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The 12km NAM tries its hardest to go negative tilt. Even more amped run inbound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wild that we were worried about suppression just 22 hours ago, lol. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM is slightly strong this run,gonna be a good run for people in the west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM definitely looks NAM-tastic so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Maybe not,more ice this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: NAM is slightly strong this run,gonna be a good run for people in Kentucky Fixed your post lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Man,stronger LLJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Maybe not,more ice this run Yep it's more amped up, or NAM'd up. QPF is more NAM'd for sure even in snow zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Oh man. That was a heartbreaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm. The next slide is even better. Just don’t look at it on a full stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 East Tennessee gonna get 5 inches sleet and .25 inches snow. ROFL Will have to take a peak at the 3k, it seemed to be a bit more sane previous runs compared to 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM has a warm bias. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM disaster. If the rest of the 0z follows suit then folks I think it’s about time to say next. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Feels safe to say we have a strong outlier. When GFS and Euro are close to each other, and the NAM miles away from either and miles away from all guidance, I'll side with a blend of GFS & Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Hurricaneguy said: NAM disaster. If the rest of the 0z follows suit then folks I think it’s about time to say next. Man…can’t get so depressed off of one model run…especially the NAM. All other models have been trending great this evening. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM transferred the energy from the GOM to Tn in a couple hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Man…can’t get so depressed off of one model run…especially the NAM. All other models have been trending great this evening.Setting up for a pretty significant snow storm. Chattanooga looks to be the battle zone. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looked like that was Miller B’ish. Took lower pressures into middle TN and wrecked the thermals. No other model has been doing that. They’ve all been taking a consolidated low on a great track under us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Man…can’t get so depressed off of one model run…especially the NAM. All other models have been trending great this evening. I read the 0z suite would have the best data yet. HRRR and NAM have changed horribly. I’ll wait on the others but if Icon, GFS, etc fall apart this bad it’s not gonna end well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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