1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Hurricaneguy]

00z HRRR horrible for East TN. Major mixing issues especially as the system exits. Not good 

[fountainguy97]

Ruh roh

 

temp and moisture issues. We toss.

[jaxjagman]

It brings the LP through Tn,wouldnt trust the HRRR that far out,it usually whiffs

[Silas Lang]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Ruh roh

 

temp and moisture issues. We toss.

 

[Silas Lang]

Just now, Silas Lang said:

 

Hope y'all like sleet! 

Yeah, it has the LP right on the other side of the Apps at the end of the run. 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

Hope y'all like sleet! 

Yeah, it has the LP right on the other side of the Apps at the end of the run. 

Mesoscale model that isnt even that good with severe that far out

[John1122]

I'll be surprised if that HRRR run is correct at 48 hours. UT swings pretty wildly beyond hour 12 or so on it's 18 hour runs at times. 

[fountainguy97]

Just now, John1122 said:

I'll be surprised if that HRRR run is correct at 48 hours. UT swings pretty wildly beyond hour 12 or so on it's 18 hour runs at times. 

Yeah hrrr is pretty horrible past 12 hrs for sure. Not putting any stock into it at all

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah hrrr is pretty horrible past 12 hrs for sure. Not putting any stock into it at all

No, but it is a perfect representation of the battle the mountain counties face a majority of the time when it comes to temps and precip in winter.  Shows why we (usually) can’t have nice things.  lol

[jaxjagman]

NAM looks better so far,see what happens

[fountainguy97]

The 12km NAM tries its hardest to go negative tilt. Even more amped run inbound.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wild that we were worried about suppression just 22 hours ago, lol. 

[jaxjagman]

NAM is slightly strong this run,gonna be a good run for people in the west

[ShawnEastTN]

NAM definitely looks NAM-tastic so far.

[jaxjagman]

Maybe not,more ice this run

[Reb]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

NAM is slightly strong this run,gonna be a good run for people in Kentucky

 Fixed your post lol

[jaxjagman]

Man,stronger LLJ

[ShawnEastTN]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe not,more ice this run

Yep it's more amped up, or NAM'd up.  QPF is more NAM'd for sure even in snow zones.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm. 

[dwagner88]

Oh man. That was a heartbreaker.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm. 

The next slide is even better.  Just don’t look at it on a full stomach.

[ShawnEastTN]

East Tennessee gonna get 5 inches sleet and .25 inches snow.  ROFL   Will have to take a peak at the 3k, it seemed to be a bit more sane previous runs compared to 12k.

[Scottie16]

NAM has a warm bias.


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[Hurricaneguy]

NAM disaster. If the rest of the 0z follows suit then folks I think it’s about time to say next. 

[ShawnEastTN]

Feels safe to say we have a strong outlier.  When GFS and Euro are close to each other, and the NAM miles away from either and miles away from all guidance, I'll side with a blend of GFS & Euro.  

[Vol4Life]

1 minute ago, Hurricaneguy said:

NAM disaster. If the rest of the 0z follows suit then folks I think it’s about time to say next. 

Man…can’t get so depressed off of one model run…especially the NAM.  All other models have been trending great this evening.

[jaxjagman]

NAM transferred the energy from the GOM to Tn in a couple hours?

[Scottie16]

Man…can’t get so depressed off of one model run…especially the NAM.  All other models have been trending great this evening.

Setting up for a pretty significant snow storm. Chattanooga looks to be the battle zone.


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[tnweathernut]

Looked like that was Miller B’ish.  Took lower pressures into middle TN and wrecked the thermals.  No other model has been doing that.  They’ve all been taking a consolidated low on a great track under us.  

[Hurricaneguy]

3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Man…can’t get so depressed off of one model run…especially the NAM.  All other models have been trending great this evening.

I read the 0z suite would have the best data yet. HRRR and NAM have changed horribly. I’ll wait on the others but if Icon, GFS, etc fall apart this bad it’s not gonna end well