ShawnEastTN Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, suzbyrd said: Look at that snow dome over Greene County! To be fair better than Polk County on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Wherever that transition zone setups up...whoever ever is just north of it...to about 50-100 miles north are going to get some really heavy rates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, suzbyrd said: Look at that snow dome over Greene County! 18 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: In case anyone hasn't seen the 18z GFS Kuchera map. Seems like the GFS has had the heaviest snow further south than other models; for example, the latest NAM is centered more so in the center of the state, is the GFS seeing something other models are not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I'm just here for the TROWAL. Hoping to use one to make my snowman! Stove, my man! Now it’s a party……. Let’s go. Glad to see you. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 19 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I'm just here for the TROWAL. Hoping to use one to make my snowman! Hey, who's this guy? Welcome back! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 25 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I'm just here for the TROWAL. Hoping to use one to make my snowman! It isn’t a winter storm thread without you, man! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Carver what’s your final thoughts as we get closer?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 @Stovepipe Now that you are here see if your trowel can do something about this downslope/dryslot thing the NAM is throwing at us mountain county folk all the sudden….. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 got to love how one model shows mix and all the tv Mets latch on to that for there for cast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Wherever that transition zone setups up...whoever ever is just north of it...to about 50-100 miles north are going to get some really heavy rates.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 got to love how one model shows mix and all the tv Mets latch on to that for there for cast. They hate us. I commented on WVLTS post about 3-5 and said “better than your 1-3 from last year” and got a care reaction from them.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: They hate us. I commented on WVLTS post about 3-5 and said “better than your 1-3 from last year” and got a care reaction from them. . To be honest, WVLT has gone down the drain since Aldrich left. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 52 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Wherever that transition zone setups up...whoever ever is just north of it...to about 50-100 miles north are going to get some really heavy rates. For sure that's why I think it's possible Chatty becomes the place to be. I think that mix line is closer to Dalton and Chatty might get hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18z Euro looks good. Upped totals. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: For sure that's why I think it's possible Chatty becomes the place to be. I think that mix line is closer to Dalton and Chatty might get hammered. Might be wish casting a bit, but that's also what I'm thinking. I'm being reminded a bit of January 2009. That was even more marginal than this event. No accumulation forecast for the southern valley. Wound up with 5" from that one. Dynamics won out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 All good on the Euro. Not much for mixing or downsloping issues. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z Euro looks good. Upped totals. Would you mind posting it? Can't get it to pull up on my phone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I still wouldn't be surprised to see that 6 inch area get bigger. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: All good on the Euro. Not much for mixing or downsloping issues. It is impressive how much more the Euro has filled in from 24 hours ago. It had many areas in East Tennessee fighting for an inch and a half and now has solid 3-5 everywhere in the East. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: I still wouldn't be surprised to see that 6 inch area get bigger. Sorry I had to 1 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 For Chattanooga, any mention of last January is hate speech, lol! I swear I'll shatter my device on the concrete driveway. Think Office Space fax machine 2025 tablet version. 18Z roundup didn't get any warmer by partial thickness or surface Ts. Even full thickness is no change. NAM is still spewing warm hate. That said 18Z NAM shows juust a wee bit of 850-700mb partial thickness improvement. GFS has the most snow. Euro may be the happy middle. Euro 18Z is a tick up for Chattanooga snow. MRX probability charts in their EM briefing all went UP 2" 4" 6" but the most likely forecast went down. That's not totally illogical given the data. Warm nose risk is there. At the same time greater QPF is available if temps stay cold. That's about it for me today. Happy forecasting to those who celebrate the 00Z and 06Z. Cautious optimism continues. My device will survive. The kids will be sledding on a snow day Friday. 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: For Chattanooga, any mention of last January is hate speech, lol! I swear I'll shatter my device on the concrete driveway. Think Office Space fax machine 2025 tablet version. 18Z roundup didn't get any warmer by partial thickness or surface Ts. Even full thickness is no change. NAM is still spewing warm hate. That said 18Z NAM shows juust a wee bit of 850-700mb partial thickness improvement. GFS has the most snow. Euro may be the happy middle. Euro 18Z is a tick up for Chattanooga snow. MRX probability charts in their EM briefing all went UP 2" 4" 6" but the most likely forecast went down. That's not totally illogical given the data. Warm nose risk is there. At the same time greater QPF is available if temps stay cold. That's about it for me today. Happy forecasting to those who celebrate the 00Z and 06Z. Cautious optimism continues. My device will survive. The kids will be sledding on a snow day Friday. 3 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I was going to say now that @Stovepipe has joined the conversation, we can have a real winter storm. Game on! And this chart makes no sense. WPC winter wx page Experimental Probability Precipitation Portal. What's Georgia got goin' on? I want a serving or three! 6 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It’s nice to see the snow totals increasing to our west as go time gets closer there. I know these snow maps are flawed but the best forcing is clearly to our west on models but it will be interesting if that can translate some east into our area more. We’ve all seen it happen with systems similar to this before. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Chattownsnow said: It’s nice to see the snow totals increasing to our west as go time gets closer there. I know these snow maps are flawed but the best forcing is clearly to our west on models but it will be interesting if that can translate some east into our area more. We’ve all seen it happen with systems similar to this before. I think there will absolutely be some 12” dollops somewhere along the southern TN border 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: I was going to say now that @Stovepipe has joined the conversation, we can have a real winter storm. Game on! And this chart makes no sense. WPC winter wx page Experimental Probability Precipitation Portal. What's Georgia got goin' on? I want a serving or three! Weather in a straight line. Had that last weekend. Good times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 34 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: It’s nice to see the snow totals increasing to our west as go time gets closer there. I know these snow maps are flawed but the best forcing is clearly to our west on models but it will be interesting if that can translate some east into our area more. We’ve all seen it happen with systems similar to this before. Where is this from? It is wildly different from the 10:1 output on pivotal. WAY more snow across MS, AL and GA shown here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, dwagner88 said: Where is this from? It is wildly different from the 10:1 output on pivotal. WAY more snow across MS, AL and GA shown here. Tropical tidbits snowfall maps fail to account for sleet and freezing rain when depicting snow accumulation. The GFS is depicting quite the mess down there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looks like snow means increased for most everyone compared to 15z on the SREF plumes. Closer to what they were at 9z this morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Nice graphics by OHX... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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