1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[ShawnEastTN]

Just now, suzbyrd said:

Look at that snow dome over Greene County!

To be fair better than Polk County on that run.  

[TellicoWx]

Wherever that transition zone setups up...whoever ever is just north of it...to about 50-100 miles north are going to get some really heavy rates.

[matt9697]

1 minute ago, suzbyrd said:

Look at that snow dome over Greene County!

 

18 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

In case anyone hasn't seen the 18z GFS Kuchera map.

Seems like the GFS has had the heaviest snow further south than other models; for example, the latest NAM is centered more so in the center of the state, is the GFS seeing something other models are not?

[tnweathernut]

17 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm just here for the TROWAL.  Hoping to use one to make my snowman!  

Stove, my man!  Now it’s a party…….  Let’s go.  Glad to see you.

[Uncle Nasty]

19 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm just here for the TROWAL.  Hoping to use one to make my snowman!  

Hey, who's  this guy? Welcome back!

[Carvers Gap]

25 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm just here for the TROWAL.  Hoping to use one to make my snowman!  

It isn’t a winter storm thread without you, man!

[Scottie16]

Carver what’s your final thoughts as we get closer?


.

[tnweathernut]

@Stovepipe Now that you are here see if your trowel can do something about this downslope/dryslot thing the NAM is throwing at us mountain county folk all the sudden…..  lol

[Mrwolf1972]

got to love how one model shows mix and all the tv Mets latch on to that for there for cast. 

[Scottie16]

Wherever that transition zone setups up...whoever ever is just north of it...to about 50-100 miles north are going to get some really heavy rates.

.

[Scottie16]

got to love how one model shows mix and all the tv Mets latch on to that for there for cast. 

They hate us. I commented on WVLTS post about 3-5 and said “better than your 1-3 from last year” and got a care reaction from them.


.

[Runman292]

9 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

They hate us. I commented on WVLTS post about 3-5 and said “better than your 1-3 from last year” and got a care reaction from them.


.

To be honest, WVLT has gone down the drain since Aldrich left. 

[ShawnEastTN]

52 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Wherever that transition zone setups up...whoever ever is just north of it...to about 50-100 miles north are going to get some really heavy rates.

For sure that's why I think it's possible Chatty becomes the place to be.  I think that mix line is closer to Dalton and Chatty might get hammered.

[Carvers Gap]

18z Euro looks good.  Upped totals.

[dwagner88]

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

For sure that's why I think it's possible Chatty becomes the place to be.  I think that mix line is closer to Dalton and Chatty might get hammered.

Might be wish casting a bit, but that's also what I'm thinking. I'm being reminded a bit of January 2009. That was even more marginal than this event. No accumulation forecast for the southern valley. Wound up with 5" from that one. Dynamics won out.

[John1122]

All good on the Euro. Not much for mixing or downsloping issues. 

 

[housemtnTN]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z Euro looks good.  Upped totals.

Would you mind posting it? Can't get it to pull up on my phone

[John1122]

I still wouldn't be surprised to see that 6 inch area get bigger. 

[ShawnEastTN]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

All good on the Euro. Not much for mixing or downsloping issues. 

 

It is impressive how much more the Euro has filled in from 24 hours ago.  It had many areas in East Tennessee fighting for an inch and a half and now has solid 3-5 everywhere in the East.

[Hurricaneguy]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I still wouldn't be surprised to see that 6 inch area get bigger. 

Sorry I had to 

[nrgjeff]

For Chattanooga, any mention of last January is hate speech, lol! I swear I'll shatter my device on the concrete driveway. Think Office Space fax machine 2025 tablet version.

18Z roundup didn't get any warmer by partial thickness or surface Ts. Even full thickness is no change. NAM is still spewing warm hate. That said 18Z NAM shows juust a wee bit of 850-700mb partial thickness improvement. GFS has the most snow. Euro may be the happy middle. Euro 18Z is a tick up for Chattanooga snow.

MRX probability charts in their EM briefing all went UP 2" 4" 6" but the most likely forecast went down. That's not totally illogical given the data. Warm nose risk is there. At the same time greater QPF is available if temps stay cold.

That's about it for me today. Happy forecasting to those who celebrate the 00Z and 06Z.

Cautious optimism continues. My device will survive. The kids will be sledding on a snow day Friday.

[Stovepipe]

5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

For Chattanooga, any mention of last January is hate speech, lol! I swear I'll shatter my device on the concrete driveway. Think Office Space fax machine 2025 tablet version.

18Z roundup didn't get any warmer by partial thickness or surface Ts. Even full thickness is no change. NAM is still spewing warm hate. That said 18Z NAM shows juust a wee bit of 850-700mb partial thickness improvement. GFS has the most snow. Euro may be the happy middle. Euro 18Z is a tick up for Chattanooga snow.

MRX probability charts in their EM briefing all went UP 2" 4" 6" but the most likely forecast went down. That's not totally illogical given the data. Warm nose risk is there. At the same time greater QPF is available if temps stay cold.

That's about it for me today. Happy forecasting to those who celebrate the 00Z and 06Z.

Cautious optimism continues. My device will survive. The kids will be sledding on a snow day Friday.

[nrgjeff]

I was going to say now that @Stovepipe has joined the conversation, we can have a real winter storm. Game on!

And this chart makes no sense. WPC winter wx page Experimental Probability Precipitation Portal.
What's Georgia got goin' on? I want a serving or three!

 

[Chattownsnow]

It’s nice to see the snow totals increasing to our west as go time gets closer there. I know these snow maps are flawed but the best forcing is clearly to our west on models but it will be interesting if that can translate some east into our area more. We’ve all seen it happen with systems similar to this before. 

[Reb]

1 minute ago, Chattownsnow said:

It’s nice to see the snow totals increasing to our west as go time gets closer there. I know these snow maps are flawed but the best forcing is clearly to our west on models but it will be interesting if that can translate some east into our area more. We’ve all seen it happen with systems similar to this before. 

I think there will absolutely be some 12” dollops somewhere along the southern TN border

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I was going to say now that @Stovepipe has joined the conversation, we can have a real winter storm. Game on!

And this chart makes no sense. WPC winter wx page Experimental Probability Precipitation Portal.
What's Georgia got goin' on? I want a serving or three!

 

Weather in a straight line.  Had that last weekend.  Good times.

[dwagner88]

34 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

It’s nice to see the snow totals increasing to our west as go time gets closer there. I know these snow maps are flawed but the best forcing is clearly to our west on models but it will be interesting if that can translate some east into our area more. We’ve all seen it happen with systems similar to this before. 

Where is this from? It is wildly different from the 10:1 output on pivotal. WAY more snow across MS, AL  and GA shown here.

[BlunderStorm]

Just now, dwagner88 said:

Where is this from? It is wildly different from the 10:1 output on pivotal. WAY more snow across MS, AL  and GA shown here.

Tropical tidbits snowfall maps fail to account for sleet and freezing rain when depicting snow accumulation. The GFS is depicting quite the mess down there.

[Wurbus]

Looks like snow means increased for most everyone compared to 15z on the SREF plumes. Closer to what they were at 9z this morning.

[*Flash*]

Nice graphics by OHX...