1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[TellicoWx]

Gulf storms would be about the orientation of the storm line...if it's west-east, it will impede the flow..if it's more north south, it can sometimes aid in moisture transport.

[bearman]

Move this if you need to but looks like MRX decided better late than never on the little event this after noon.  Must be causing some problems?     WWA for far north east area.  

[John1122]

The UKIE increased QPF a decent amount vs 00z. Hopefully the increasing qpf trend holds.

[Save the itchy algae!]

Decent snow shower in Farragut currently.


.

[housemtnTN]

10 minutes ago, bearman said:

Move this if you need to but looks like MRX decided better late than never on the little event this after noon.  Must be causing some problems?     WWA for far north east area.  

I would imagine in the next 12-24hrs this map will mostly be winter storm warnings.

[ladyjmayo]

11 minutes ago, bearman said:

Move this if you need to but looks like MRX decided better late than never on the little event this after noon.  Must be causing some problems?     WWA for far north east area.  

Apparently it is mostly because anything that falls is immediately sticking to the roads because of the cold temps. Still might see up to an inch in some areas over the course of the day.

[nrgjeff]

Hot Pink WS warnings are coming to that map. I would think this afternoon. Definitely west. 

Yes the QPF has trended up because the stream phasing has improved with most model runs. Seems just right for snow, kind of a 50/50 balance of northern and southern streams - like Eagle Fang and Miyagi-Do karate. 

[*Flash*]

Didn't see this posted earlier so figured I'd share for archiving purposes. I think totals are a bit high for northwest suburbs unless I'm missing something. 

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, bearman said:

Move this if you need to but looks like MRX decided better late than never on the little event this after noon.  Must be causing some problems?     WWA for far north east area.  

It snowed about 1-2" here this morning, and caught everyone off guard.  So, a WWA was issued.  The current advisory overrides the WSW which is also issued also for the same area for Friday.  Several reports in the observations thread.  It was a mess.

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Didn't see this posted earlier so figured I'd share for archiving purposes. I think totals are a bit high for northwest suburbs unless I'm missing something. 

Could be right,they will probably be colder because of the elevation,thus better ratios

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Could be right,they will probably be colder because of the elevation,thus better ratios

Then i just looked at the 2m's and its not very cold,so maybe it isnt right

[John1122]

The Euro came in dry/south. It's the lowest end model for us currently. As I talked about yesterday, it did this last year in a similar set up and at best was about 60-65 percent of what actually fell.

[Bigbald]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro came in dry/south. It's the lowest end model for us currently. As I talked about yesterday, it did this last year in a similar set up and at best was about 60-65 percent of what actually fell.

John, how the heck do you stay awake for like 72 hours at a time?  

[Icy Hot]

29 minutes ago, bearman said:

Move this if you need to but looks like MRX decided better late than never on the little event this after noon.  Must be causing some problems?     WWA for far north east area.  

Yeah, that was posted earlier this morning after they got reports that we already had an inch in Kingsport. Not bad with a 20% chance of flurries.

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

John, how the heck do you stay awake for like 72 hours at a time?  

I actually do sleep a few hours a day, but when snow is in the air I don't feel sleepy!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro handles a vort differently from the GFS and this vort squishes the system a bit 

Euro -> GFS

 

 

[jaxjagman]

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Not much has changed in the forecast with the upcoming snow event.
Models have hinted at a slightly further north track, which may
allow for warmer air to move further north as well. This could
allow for some rain to mix in with the snow especially near the AL
border area. Any rain at all would rob moisture for the snow, and
lessen snow amounts in that area. But, a further south track would
limit moisture in northern zones, and lower snow amounts in that
area. So, this is a difficult forecast in regards to snow amounts.
At least the chances for sleet and freezing rain are very low with
current model data. GFS and GEFS remain the most aggressive with
snow and textbook isentropic lift over most of the day Friday,
resulting in the heaviest snowfall. NAM has ramped up a little but
remains below the GFS, and the ECMWF and ensembles remain on the
lower end. Still, 10th percentile snow amounts are in the 1-2 inch
range, and 90th percentile is in the 5 to 7 inch range, so we
still have a decent spread between the models. Still have 3 to 6
inches across the mid state, with some locally higher amounts
possible especially if any mesoscale bands develop with higher
snowfall rates. Some of the CAMs are getting into the onset of the
snow and suggest snow could start a little earlier than
anticipated by a few hours, but either way, Friday will definitely
have travel impacts regardless and travel should be avoided.

Temps will likely be cooler if we get the snowfall currently in
the forecast, so temps will struggle to get above freezing on
Saturday. This will keep roads in rough shape especially on less
traveled and secondary roads. Lows Saturday night will be in the
teens, but there may be some relief Sunday with weak ridging and
getting temps to the upper 30s. But another weak Midwest trough
will swing through Sunday night into Monday, and could bring some
flurries/light snow to the area. At the very least it will bring
cloud cover, so any help from the sun on the roads doesn`t look
likely. Lows in the teens/20s are expected each night next week,
which any melting will result in re-freezing, keeping travel
difficult with black ice on any cleared roads.

[ShawnEastTN]

MRX trimming back along the mountains, not sure if they are concerned with downsloping or worrying about the precip dying back a bit as it goes East, or mixing cutting into totals.

[AMZ8990]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
138 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-091200-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0001.250110T0000Z-250111T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0001.250110T0000Z-250111T1200Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St.
Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton
MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-Coahoma-Quitman-
Panola-Lafayette-Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba-Lake-Obion-
Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-
Haywood-Crockett-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-
Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-
Including the cities of Fulton, Marks, Decaturville, Savannah,
Paragould, Brownsville, Camden, Pontotoc, Union City, Selmer,
Kennett, Tunica, Oxford, Lexington, Martin, Ripley TN, Corinth,
Millington, Tiptonville, Marianna, Huntingdon, Dyersburg,
Jackson, Jonesboro, Ripley MS, West Memphis, Helena-West Helena,
New Albany, Forrest City, Corning, Paris, Blytheville, Olive
Branch, Wynne, Memphis, Henderson, Piggott, Harrisburg,
Covington, Collierville, Clarksdale, Senatobia, Germantown, Iuka,
Booneville, Alamo, Dresden, Humboldt, Caruthersville, Parsons,
Holly Springs, Tupelo, Southaven, Bolivar, Milan, Bartlett,
Oakland, Ashland, Batesville, and Somerville
138 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall expected. Total snow accumulations between 4
  and 6 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi, Southeast
  Missouri, and West Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[nrgjeff]

The NAM is taking over! Maybe it's the delay Warning until next period. Could be the ol' down then back up. We'll see. 

I have not seen WPC update lower with all their probability-based products. We eagerly await those.

MEM is still..

[ShawnEastTN]

Just now, nrgjeff said:

The NAM is taking over! Maybe it's the delay Warning until next period. Could be the ol' down then back up. We'll see. 

I have not seen WPC update lower with all their probability-based products. We eagerly await those.

Yeah their trimming suspiciously matches NAM earlier.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Yeah their trimming suspiciously matches NAM earlier.

Going with the model showing the lowest totals is usually the way to go in Tennessee.  Just a casual observation over the last 25 years.  lol

 

[Runman292]

MRX be like: 

"Is that the smell of lowered snow totals? Looks like NAM is back on the menu, boys!"

[Reb]

I’ve seen MRX lower snow totals only for the actual accumulation to be twice what they originally predicted. 3-6” is still a nice snowstorm for East Tennessee though.

[Wurbus]

I noticed the 3pm plumes also came down about an inch average for KNX and Chattanooga decreased a fair amount as well.

[nrgjeff]

Chattanooga debacle is always believable. If the column gets any warm bubble we're toast. 

4 minutes ago, Reb said:

I’ve seen MRX lower snow totals only for the actual accumulation to be twice what they originally predicted. 3-6” is still a nice snowstorm for East Tennessee though.

Indeed I can vividly remember a couple cases. Cut totals. Then re-raise. I'm not blaming them or anyone. Just seen it before.

[Hurricaneguy]

I expect MRX to continue to trend down for the area south of I81. Even with the newest HRRR in range, it shows a brutal snow hole over parts of Greene and Washington Co. Mixing issues. Just unbelievable the luck. We've not had a 6"+ snow since 2014. Last decent snow was the Christmas Eve fun 2020  

[TellicoWx]

Can picture in my head...MRX this morning: "OK, who let the new guy write the overnight AFD? Now we gotta walk this thing back."

[fountainguy97]

18Z nam at 27hrs is more neutral tilt. Likely an even more amped run coming. These Northern pieces are notorious for some last second trends like this 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

What time will get an AFD? Will this be one of those after 4 days? I’m goin for 3:34 PM unless they’re waiting on a WPC product like Jeff mentioned.