1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[dwagner88]

It shifted south pretty significantly. Northern ATL suburbs got the heavier stuff shown across southern TN on the 18Z.

[TellicoWx]

Knew we needed @Stovepipe's mojo lol

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The RGEM must be busted. 

Rumor has it...was so bad it already dove off the cliff lol jk

[John1122]

The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else. 

[John1122]

I expect the GFS to be weaker and south. It did the same for a run last year when the Euro put out the super weak solution I posted earlier. 

[Reb]

I’m kicking the can down the road. Seems like it’s trending down with just enough time to trend back up. If it’s still weakening by 18z tomorrow, then kick rocks. 

[Vol4Life]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else. 

Not trusting that run….

[Hurricaneguy]

Models seesawing across the region. Beginning to feel less confident in anything decent for East TN. 2” if we are lucky. I just think mixing issues are going to show per usual. Hopefully we have enough room for another good opportunity. 

[TellicoWx]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The ICON is 1mb less deep and 10 miles south and it cut QPF in half. And for some reason it popped a weak high over Savannah and there's a small pocket of snow underneath it with rain everywhere else. 

Checking 850s-700 moisture..almost exactly same...I'm stumped, unless it's a lift issue.

[John1122]

Everything is moving faster too. It's arriving earlier and getting out of dodge. 

[John1122]

It's rare to see ensembles with more QPF than the op but the Euro was and the ICON ensembles are pretty similar in QPF. Usually just by their nature of having to incorporate a few misses, they are drier than their ops. 

[TellicoWx]

Goofy nailing central AL...that's new

[fountainguy97]

GFS continuing the theme of slashing QPF lol.  Hopefully just a head fake but I have a feeling it's not. 

[John1122]

GFS down about .10 across the board. Hopefully things stabilize. It makes no sense for a potent, deepening low to track along the gulf and for it to not produce more precip. If it was 35 degrees with bad 850s that same low strength/track would produce 1.5 inches of qpf. 

[ShawnEastTN]

Wouldn't be winter weather chasing if there wasn't a couple head scratching runs in the last 72 hours before the storm.  Everytime!!!

[John1122]

I'm hoping to salvage 2-3 inches here. I think 40 and south will be okay for 3 to 5+  

[ShawnEastTN]

18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Goofy nailing central AL...that's new

It might be the old south shift, before the shift back NW.  Used to be able to count on those shifts in the last few days before a storm.  Would sink south, then nudge back northward.  Also Northern precip shield is always under modeled pretty much every time.

[Bigbald]

Hard to beat the track of the 0z cmc and  0z gfs for east tennessee, even if models are showing slightly lessening qpf at the moment.

[ShawnEastTN]

Just now, Bigbald said:

Hard to beat the track of the 0z cmc and  0z gfs for east tennessee, even if models are showing slightly lessening qpf at the moment.

Agree completely!!!  That track 9 times out of 10 pays dividends.

[Wurbus]

Did the 0z CMC run? I don't see it available on pivotal or tropical tidbits.

[AFranklin88]

Feels like modeled qpf and snowfall in AR trended down earlier today and now significantly up in 0z suite. May not mean anything but an observation

[John1122]

The GEFS joins the camp of ensembles with more qpf than the op. The snow mean is as good or better than 18z for some areas. 

[Wurbus]

GEFS mean remains beefy, but the biggest amounts shifted from Chattanooga area to Arkansas and Memphis.

[TellicoWx]

Going to wait a couple runs, but after looking at the 500 maps..definitely going to temper expectations some. Not liking the way the northern stream interacts for the east..omega back to being a possible issue.

[John1122]

The UKIE is light years better than it's 12z disaster that was the first shot fired in the bad runs today. 

[John1122]

It wasn't great for mby but it nearly missed the whole forum at 12z. 

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Going to wait a couple runs, but after looking at the 500 maps..definitely going to temper expectations some. Not liking the way the northern stream interacts for the east..omega back to being a possible issue.

These come north 95 percent of the time, and usually it's to our detriment. Hopefully it manages to in this case too, but for the better. If things are getting worse at this time tomorrow I'll have my towel in hand, ready to toss it in. 

[John1122]

Canadian finally ran and joined the less qpf camp. RGEM is running as well. I expect it will too. 

[John1122]

Canadian suite is slower like the others were. Every model is now about the same with QPF at 0z, euro pending. The hope is that they don't get any worse. It would still be a nice 3 to 5 inches for most of us. 

[Reb]

Euro is a bit better vs 18z