Reb Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM CMC ensemble 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Quite a few times when you see the LP suppressed down into Mobile Bay , Big Bend these are big winter storms in our Southern Parts,generally QPFS usually leaves us with just light snow here,id feel pretty good if i was around the TN/AL line 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM @John1122both the entirety of the 12z GFS and Euro look a lot how I pictured 1977 that you described. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM EPS 12z -> 6z lp centers and panels not out yet 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Nashville disco LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2025 The story for this forecast continues to be the snow potential for Friday. Brief ridging on Thursday ahead of the next trough will warm temps slightly, but still going to remain with cooler temps and highs staying in the 30s. Snow is expected to begin in the west Friday morning with the trough over the Plains working its way east. Peak snowfall looks to be mid morning through the afternoon across most of the mid state, and into the evening to early overnight hours for the Plateau. This will be a quick hit of snow, but right now, models are pretty consistent showing 1 to 4 inches of snow depending on which model you are looking at. The GFS and its ensembles are the most aggressive with snow, and on the higher end of amounts thanks to a stronger trough, and near perfect isentropic lift during the day Friday. Decent Q-vector convergence and upper level support stays around through the day, so the GFS is fully onboard with heavy snow. The ECMWF, its ensembles, and the NAM are still showing snow, but not as aggressive as the GFS/GEFS. Still, broad ensemble consensus is 1 to 4 inches with the latest forecasts for Friday, and the most likely scenario is 2-4 inches area wide. If models start leaning towards the GFS solutions, that will go up, but going the other direction, amounts will go down slightly. Probability of 2 inches or more is roughly 50 to 70 percent area wide. Temps will struggle to get above freezing Saturday, but ridging tries to build in Sunday so that will help with melting snow. For the most part, the remainder of the forecast looks dry, with some light snow possible in the north Monday but agreement and confidence is low. Temps dont look to warm up much next week with highs in the 30s/low 40s and lows in the teens/20s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:24 PM EPS members: Member slps: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z Euro looks slightly north of 6z and a little less robust at 57. We will call it Miller light. Cheers! *clink* The dad joker in me approves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM 49 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: EPS 12z -> 6z lp centers and panels not out yet That sure looks a lot like the 12z GEPS that Reb posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Where is @Stovepipe? 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM The cold leading up to this event is pretty stellar, check out Wise, va..barely making it to 25 degrees, won't be a wasted flake on that ground. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Where is @Stovepipe? Was just about to ask the same thing!! Miss seeing him around! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Tuesday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:07 PM Well now. This is public on their page. Nashville is similar in EM briefings. MRX site.. I agree. Though 700 mb is a bit warm -5 vs -10C a nice DGZ sits above that and well saturated. Then 500 mb is the magic -22C. 850/surface is as good as it gets down South. Push in the poker stack baby! 6 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:10 PM Real question I have is many models have most of MRX CWA in the 2-4 or 3-5 range, will MRX dust off the winter storm product, or Winter Weather Advisory? 1-3 is advisory criteria, but winter storm product for MRX is anything greater than 3 inches (for the Great valley) which looks probable for most if not all the CWA the potential is pretty good to break past 3". I'm sure we won't likely see a winter storm product issued before Wednesday afternoon if they do go that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:11 PM 14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Where is @Stovepipe? Its not a winter storm without Stove 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:12 PM 6 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Was just about to ask the same thing!! Miss seeing him around! @Reb, need to go get Stove. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @Reb, need to go get Stove. Copy that 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:17 PM Where is [mention=1307]Stovepipe[/mention]?Hopefully preparing us some brand new memes 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 07:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:18 PM Put with,edited it to without Stove we need his mojo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM 9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Its not a winter storm without Stove While we’re at it, Where’s @PowellVolz? I don’t think I’ve seen him post all winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM 19 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: While we’re at it, Where’s @PowellVolz? I don’t think I’ve seen him post all winter. For sure! Need him as well! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:45 PM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Save that for the archives. A Code Red for the entire midstate is a rare gem. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted Tuesday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:49 PM Just now, *Flash* said: Save that for the archives. A Code Red for the entire midstate is a rare gem. Almost the entire mid state. Those two small dots in Grundy county are just out of luck. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted Tuesday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:50 PM How concerned about dryslot/downsloping do you guys think I should be? Some earlier gfs runs that were more of a south to north orientation had a nice hole over the TN/NC border. thinking the flatter west to east we have seen more today is helping prevent that for my backyard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:52 PM 2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: Almost the entire mid state. Those two small dots in Grundy county are just out of luck. That has to be a joke…the guys working there at NWS must have buddies that live there…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM 3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: How concerned about dryslot/downsloping do you guys think I should be? Some earlier gfs runs that were more of a south to north orientation had a nice hole over the TN/NC border. thinking the flatter west to east we have seen more today is helping prevent that for my backyard? Don't get me started about this. lol You can ask @Carvers Gapmy thoughts on downsloping/dryslot. Was just mentioning to him this morning about the "double whammy" snow demon not everyone gets the joy of facing. haha I guess when you live where we live you can never really shake it being a concern, but it's less of a concern today than it was 36 hours ago. Trending in the right direction. I like the trajectory of the system and the orientation of the precipitation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:13 PM I dont see how a dry slot would effect us if the storm formed into a trowel not the track of the storm forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted Tuesday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:15 PM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Where is @Stovepipe? I've been wondering that myself! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I dont see how a dry slot would effect us if the storm formed into a trowel not the track of the storm forecasted More of a microclimate thing, Jax. Unicoi, Greene & parts of Washington County tend to pull downslopes and dryslots like a magician pulls a rabbit from a hat. It's a talent we have in spades. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Tuesday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:29 PM Morristown does not show it on their public graphic, but one can infer some East Tenn downslope from the Nashville slide. Please no. I want everyone to do well. Slide is not for commercial use. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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